Analysis of the Roland Garros semifinals: Everyone against Zverev

Carlos Navarro | 4 Jun 2026 | 21.38

Who will win one of the great battles in the Roland Garros semifinal?

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🎾 Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev

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The chaos, madness, and marathons of Roland Garros 2026 are heading towards their final stretch with an unanswered question hovering over Philippe Chatrier. The eyes of the tennis world remain focused on Alexander Zverev, who has been handed a perfect opportunity by life to leave his demons behind, break free from the chains that bound him for years, and finally win his first Grand Slam. Only two obstacles separate him from the Musketeers' Cup, although the first one comes with an upward arrow.

Jakub Mensik emerges as a huge threat: his tennis is being efficient, as cold as it is lethal, calculating in his attacks and intelligent in his efforts. His victory over Joao Fonseca in the quarterfinals sent a powerful message: he is here to dismantle the hype around the contenders, and although few saw him as a true contender, he has as much chance as anyone else. Many say that the champion will emerge from this duel; Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli, carrying the Italian flag in the top half, have plenty to say about it. Who will emerge from Paris as the champion?

Alexander Zverev is the top favorite to win at Roland Garros: can Jakub Mensik give him a scare?

Just a couple of hurdles remain. For someone so used to staying close to the finish line, the caliber of the remaining opponents in the draw could be a double-edged sword for Sascha: if he asserts his status and shows his experience, the Musketeers' Cup should travel to Germany... but no one will bear more pressure and expectations than the German himself, who, after leaving behind a weary Rafa Jódar, will have to acclimate to the blows of a towering Czech eager to continue making noise.

His semifinal clash will have nothing to do with what he experienced last Tuesday. Jakub Mensik poses a threat from the first stroke: precisely his serve has been one of his great weapons in this Roland Garros, razor-sharp against Fonseca, consistently hitting the T and allowing him to attack the center of the court immediately after. Unlike previous matches, Sascha will face a player very similar to himself: imposing first serve, fantastic mobility despite his height, better backhand than forehand, capable of attacking with parallel shots, tendency to fall short if pressured on the forehand side.

When your opponent's characteristics are so similar to yours, the only option left is to approach the match from your strengths. Observing Mensik's ease on the drive side in this tournament, Sascha will have no choice but to execute his own forehand with the same confidence and speed he did in the match against Jódar, especially in the second half of the game. If he maintains such an outstanding first-serve percentage as in the quarterfinals, hovering around 80%, he will be able to afford, at the very least, close scores... and, as the minutes pass, wear down Mensik, whose best chances may lie in resolving this match in three or four sets.

Jakub's level deserves approaching a Slam, but Zverev poses a threat he hasn't faced yet: the German is always willing to hit one more ball, has a cushion of short points thanks to his serve that Minar and Fonseca didn't have, and above all, has a lot of energy in the tank. Doubling down is the only way for the Central European: only by doing so, for example, was he able to push him to the limit in their last match in Madrid, where Sascha needed a 6-3 in the deciding set to defeat him. Two heavyweights with a tendency to hammer with their serves, but also comfortable holding their ground in backhand crosscourt rallies, face a match where pressure and favoritism fall on Alexander... something that Jakub undoubtedly celebrates.

Arnaldi and Cobolli will play a great Italian derby: who will make history for Italy by reaching the final?

Two unexpected guests light up a semifinal with contrasting profiles. If bombs are raining down on the lower end, from Italy the author's stamp is very different: short angles, tolerance for exchange, extraordinary recoveries, and all-court tennis. Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have known each other since they were 13 years old, they train together regularly, are very close friends, and see how destiny has prepared them for a duel where nothing less than a first presence in a Grand Slam final is at stake.

The favoritism, though moderate, falls on the fan of Rome who stopped playing football as a child in search of duels like this one. If we extend the snapshot to the Challenger circuit, in the head-to-head matches, Arnaldi leads (3-2)... but the difference in hours on the court, the great form he had already shown in other clay court tournaments, and his top-10 status tilt the balance in favor of Flavio, in a match that promises many plot twists.

As a surprise guest, Matteo will have one thing for sure: no pressure. Yes, the pressure of being among the top four in the most open Slam of recent times, but the tranquility of knowing that just a month ago he was worried about possibly dropping out of the top-150... and now he plays with the comfort of having secured a very comfortable cushion. After overcoming physical problems and a lack of confidence, Arnaldi has revealed himself as the great rock of Roland Garros: only his impressive counterattacks can explain the feats against Collignon and Tiafoe, and his ability to take his compatriot Matteo Berrettini into deep waters until breaking him.

Will his body withstand so many defensive efforts to frustrate and mentally fry Cobolli? That is the big question that could either sabotage (or accelerate) his chances of reaching the final. In principle, it is Flavio who must take the initiative: he went from less to more against Aliassime, and his last two sets show the type of tennis he must implement to be a Slam finalist, making marvelous use of the kick serve, hitting the ball from top to bottom, with a glove in the parallel backhand (magnificent counter-shots), and opening the court patiently and marginally to tire his opponent.

Your tolerance for exchange and the frustration of not finishing many points in three or four strokes (on the other side there's a wall) will determine your chances of victory, that's for sure: for both, this match is a celebration, a song to life, a demonstration that the impressive crop of Italian tennis does not rely on Jannik Sinner to alert the world to the quality of their nation. It's their opportunity of a lifetime: there will be nerves, errors, frustration... but also a lot of clay court tennis, a rarity now. Who will take it?

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis de las semifinales de Roland Garros: Todos contra Zverev

Alexander Zverev