Analysis of the quarterfinals of the Australian Open 2026: favorites deliver, excitement grows

Andrés Tomás Rico | 26 Jan 2026 | 19.15

Analysis of the quarterfinals of the Australian Open 2026: Favorites deliver, excitement increases. Photo: Gettyimages

Streaming M25 Kramsach live tennis

🎾 Lambert Ruland vs Alex Huszar

Sign up with Bet365 here
Make your first deposit of at least €5
Go to the “Live” section and watch every match

Watch the match on Bet365

The 2026 Australian Open is already in its quarterfinals, entering its most decisive and clinical phase with eight players aiming to start the season on a high note by lifting the first Grand Slam of the year. As expected, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have not disappointed, and both are expected to meet in the final, but before that, they will face some very dangerous opponents.

While Novak Djokovic, the most decorated player in Melbourne, maintains a low profile that makes him very dangerous because both he and the rest of the circuit know of his threat when he is in good physical condition and his tennis is on point. These three are not the only contenders for the title. A diverse group of potential alternatives like Lorenzo Musetti, Ben Shelton, Alex de Miñaur, and Alexander Zverev have not yet spoken their final words, while the 'rookie' Learner Tien is starting to become a real nuisance. Out of these eight players, only four will remain after what promises to be thrilling quarterfinals of the 2026 Australian Open.

Analysis of the men's quarterfinals at the 2026 Australian Open

Alexander Zverev (3) vs Learner Tien (25)

The German, a finalist in the last edition, has adopted a very low profile and has even breezed through many moments of the tournament. Without any controversies or complaints, apart from the occasional spat with his father in the coach's box. He has only dropped three sets, against Gabriel Diallo, Alexandre Muller, and Cameron Norrie, and perhaps he needs this calmness and low expectations to finally make his mark in a Grand Slam.

However, he will face a tough challenge against Learner Tien and his tennis, some of the best seen in Melbourne over the past two weeks. The American, mentored by Michael Chang, not only adapts to the game of any opponent but knocks them out without giving them any chance. A great example is his dominating victory over Daniil Medvedev in the last round with a score of 6-4, 6-0, 6-3.

Their head-to-head record stands at a tie with one win each. The American claimed the first victory in Acapulco in 2025, amidst a forgettable South American clay court swing for the German, who then bounced back to defeat him easily at the 2025 Roland Garros. For this showdown in Melbourne, we can expect long exchanges between two players who feel very comfortable hitting from the baseline, where service will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the match. The player with the more accurate serve and the fresher legs will have a good chance of making it to the semifinals.

Carlos Alcaraz (1) vs Alex de Miñaur (6)

Will the third time be the charm for Carlos Alcaraz in Australia? The number one has fallen at this stage for two years in a row, so surpassing it would mean breaking a psychological barrier at the last Grand Slam he has yet to win. So far, his tennis has been solid, though he faced some challenging moments, like the second set against Adam Walton or the first set against Yannick Hanfmann. He has not dropped a set yet and his confidence grows with each match, but his clash against De Miñaur will be the toughest test to date and the best gauge of his current form.

As for the Australian, he is also on the brink of his first semifinals at the Australian Open and any Grand Slam. The local hero is living up to expectations and has overcome two matches against aggressive and powerful players like Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik, whom he might have succumbed to in years past. He seems to have more options in his playbook, more alternatives, and, above all, more determination in critical moments. He will have a golden opportunity in front of his home crowd.

The head-to-head record is quite clear: five victories for the Spaniard and none for the Australian. Although the 'Aussie' has put up a fight in most encounters, he has never quite found the key to stopping the virtuosity of the player from Murcia nor has he managed to pose significant challenges. Since those two match points in the semifinals of the 2022 Barcelona Open, De Miñaur has never had real chances to upset Alcaraz.

Jannik Sinner (2) vs Ben Shelton (8)

Had it not been for that intense, dramatic hot morning in his match against Eliott Spizzirri, we would be talking about a red-carpet stroll for the world number two on his way to his third Australian Open victory. However, that physical collapse still shows that the Italian needs to overcome the tough hot days, not only in Melbourne but also those awaiting him on the rest of the circuit. Yet, aside from this setback, his game remains as precise and flawless as ever. He has incorporated certain nuances with high, deep, and heavy shots, elements rarely seen before.

His first big test will come against Ben Shelton. The American started the season with doubts about his battered shoulder, worn out by his powerful shots, but so far, he is holding up perfectly. His serve remains his greatest weapon along with his forehand, but there seems to be a new sense of order in his game that could be decisive in defeating the Italian for the second time, as seen in his victory over a baseline player like Casper Ruud.

Sinner dominates their head-to-head with a convincing 8-1 score. In fact, they met in the semifinals of the Australian Open last year, where the Italian prevailed in three sets. The intensity and control that the world number two imposes from the baseline are a real nightmare for any opponent, especially Shelton, who earns most of his points in brief exchanges. Therefore, the American will need a lot of patience and solid play from the back of the court to trouble the defending champion.

Novak Djokovic (4) vs Lorenzo Musetti (5)

Possibly the most evenly matched duel in this quarterfinal round. Both arrive in good form, playing dominating and convincing tennis, showing signs that they can compete for the title. Musetti starts this 2026 season with the addition of Josep Perlas to his team and a sense of maturity in his game and mindset. He has shown resilience against players like Tomas Machac and dominance against others like Taylor Fritz.

However, he will face none other than Novak Djokovic. The Serbian, overshadowed in the Grand Slams over the last two years by the emergence of Alcaraz and Sinner, started the tournament without being among the favorites, but as the matches progress, a different Djokovic from recent majors is emerging. Not only is his physical condition respecting him, but he appears more agile and dynamic, reminiscent of his past self, difficult to beat. Moreover, reaching the quarterfinals by skipping a round due to the retirement of Jakub Mensik adds a dangerous element as he nears the final rounds of a Grand Slam.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis de los cuartos de final del Open de Australia 2026: los favoritos cumplen, la emoción aumenta

ATP