Sinner's big problem: 54th in the world in a worrying statistic

Carlos Navarro | 10 Sep 2025 | 15.02

Sinner and an important problem with his first serve: is there a solution? Source: Getty

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Jannik Sinner aspires to be an -almost- perfect machine where everything is measured to the utmost millimeter. Every piece is part of a whole in which, with the failure of a single nut, all alarms are triggered to put a stop to any problem, no matter how subtle it may be. The final of the US Open 2025 against Carlos Alcaraz showed that the one from San Candido still has an impressive margin for improvement in a statistical data that, although it is correctable against 95% of the circuit, could put a slight brake on his generational rivalry with the Murcian... a statistic in which he is the 54th best in the ATP ranking.

Let's focus on the serve. If we look at the serve rating from the ATP, Jannik Sinner is the second best server on the circuit, just behind Mpetshi Perricard. The reason? Quite clear: firstly, he is the best in the world in games won on serve, with a 92%; he is also the best in the world in points won with his second serve, with a 59.6%. These data clearly lead to several conclusions: that Jannik's second serve is probably the best on the entire circuit (it is usually quite risky, has a lot of kick, and lands very deep, making it difficult for opponents to attack) and that few are better than him when playing from the baseline (he has more than enough margin to carry out his service games successfully even if the second serve is only used to start the point)... but they reveal a shortcoming that has been exacerbated in the last two tournaments.

The problem lies in the first serve. Specifically, in the percentage of first serves that he puts in play. There, the Italian drops to the 54th position on the circuit, with just 60.6% of first serves in on average, far percentage-wise from names like Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Zverev. It hasn't been a particularly relevant statistic in recent times, mainly due to the dominance that Jannik has with his second serve and from the baseline to the return... but it emerged as a differential factor in the final against Carlos and, worse, there were already signs of concern in previous matches.

SYMP TOMS AND DATA ON THE NORTH AMERICAN TOUR

Because not only was Carlos fantastic at tearing apart a second serve used as a last resort. He had already had problems of this nature against names like Shapovalov (left with a 50% points won on the second serve) and Auger-Aliassime, capable of taking advantage of the lack of first serves to deliver the first blow and steal control from the Italian. Indeed, in the analysis of the final, we observed how the Italian was sluggish in terms of his service, feelings that became a reality as soon as Alcaraz planted his feet on the baseline to attack the second serves.

This has been a clear trend in the North American hardcourt tour. During the Cincinnati tournament, Jannik only surpassed 60% of first serves in on one match (the one in his debut, against Galán); his feelings were so far from satisfactory that he went to the practice courts, around 10 p.m., after his second-round match against Diallo... just to practice his serve. Did the percentages improve in this US Open? Not at all: in the seven matches played in New York, he only in one (vs. Musetti) exceeded that 60% mark, his average over the last year, showing a clear decline in the confidence he has with the first serve and giving more room for maneuver to aggressive players who attack his second serve without hesitation.

These data contrast significantly with his performance at Wimbledon. There, Sinner claimed the title in an imperial manner, with a cruising rhythm on his service games and without leaving any room for doubt against highly competitive opponents. In those two weeks, the Italian exceeded 60% of first serves in on four out of seven matches played (and in the other three, never dropped below 57%; on this tour, his percentages have plummeted, with matches showing 48% in the final vs. Alcaraz, 50% vs. Popyrin, or 53% in the semifinals vs. Aliassime). It was a crucial aspect to play, especially in the final, the tennis he wanted: it allowed him to strike first, finish points with the serve+forehand combination, and drag Alcaraz into the relentless pace in which he enjoys so much.

REMEDY FOR ALL, FATAL AGAINST CARLOS

As we mentioned, Sinner's poor performances with his first serve have never caused a deep wound for the Italian. Simply put, he didn't need it: the sharpness of his second serve, his ability to improve percentages in pressure situations, and his impressive return capabilities were more than enough to compensate for those percentages. However, Alcaraz showed that, in the context of this generational rivalry, Jannik needs to improve the first serve as a matter of urgency: if the Murcian is focused and clear-minded as he was in the final last Sunday, each service turn can be a real odyssey.

To improve performances, the solutions can be varied. Exploring more effects, opting for less risky but more surprising serves for the opponent (looking for the cut slider open on the deuce side, opting more for the kick on the advantage, which is very effective on the second serve but underused on the first); reducing the speed and aiming for first serves somewhere between 3/4 with the goal of simply hitting in the center of the court and dominating with the next shot... in any case, Sinner is fully aware that storms are coming if his first serve, especially seeing Carlos's evolution with his first shot, does not evolve into a reliable weapon. Now it's Jannik's move.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, El gran problema de Sinner: el 54º del mundo en una estadística alarmante

Jannik Sinner