Analysis of Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner, Roland Garros 2025 final

Carlos Navarro | 7 Jun 2025 | 22.45

Alcaraz and Sinner, after their latest big final, in Rome. Source: Getty

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The long-awaited duel that the tennis world has been waiting for is finally here. The planet comes to a standstill as all eyes turn to Roland Garros 2025, a prestigious stage to witness a generational clash that has already taken over the ATP circuit. In Paris, it's not just a Major title at stake, but also the first position of a duo destined to make history and write the main chapters of tennis in the short, medium, and long term. Will Jannik Sinner conquer a new peak and claim his first Slam in Paris? Will Carlos Alcaraz repeat the title and make a strong statement by coming within two major titles of the Italian?

Ice and fire meet again just three weeks after their encounter in Rome. The Foro Italico witnessed Sinner's return to competition after a three-month suspension, with Carlos Alcaraz being the perfect host, providing both a welcoming reception and prompting improvements in various aspects of his game. That defeat in Rome caused a stir in Jannik and his team, leading to subtle tactical adjustments for Roland Garros, including a slight change in his return position to three-quarters depth, seeking a fraction of a second advantage in reacting to first serves, and an enhanced wide serve. Will these adjustments be enough to conquer the unconquered summit?

JANNIK, A RUTHLESS CYBORG AIMING FOR LEGENDARY CHALLENGES

Jannik Sinner has triumphed in the last two Grand Slams, both on hardcourts. Doubts about his performance on natural surfaces have been swiftly dispelled during these two weeks. With every parallel backhand, pinpoint serve, and inverted forehand winner, he crushes any uncertainties. His path through Paris has been a stroll, where regardless of the opponent's stature, his response has been consistent: a firm declaration, imperial attitude, and victory in straight sets.

His composure in handling the semifinal showdown against none other than Novak Djokovic has further enhanced his reputation. His ruthless dispatch of Nole reveals a giant who carries his game, characterized by depth and power, across any surface. Without physical strain, without dropping sets, Jannik arrives at this final with a clear objective: to show that he too can dethrone Alcaraz on clay. Is there less pressure? Initially, as it's not his natural environment, and this is only his second tournament after returning. Reaching the final of Roland Garros, regardless of the outcome, is a notable achievement. Is there more pressure? Imagine facing five consecutive defeats against your generational rival; the mental burden is significant. Each person will see the glass as half empty or half full, depending on perspective.

Tactically, the objectives are clear: increase his first-serve percentage compared to the semifinal, engage in constant backhand-to-backhand rallies, be precise with the inverted forehand on high balls (an area of weakness in matches like Indian Wells 2024 or Roland Garros 2024 that seems to have improved), and suffocate Carlos with pace and depth. Areas of focus include enhancing movement on his backhand side and exploiting his return, which was underwhelming in the Rome final.

CARLOS, THE SOVEREIGN OF CLAY AND THE DOMINATOR OF A GENERATION

How the landscape has changed for Carlos Alcaraz since the start of the clay court season. Including a Netflix documentary, the young player from Murcia has shown that 'his way' can also lead to legendary status. The presence of Sinner has provided him with guidance, a compass, and a target that positions him as the hunter rather than the hunted. In this role, silencing critics and asserting his dominance against a future legend of his caliber, the Murcian has had an impressive Roland Garros, displaying control in his matches despite minor setbacks and showcasing versatility to overcome all opponents.

Extra time on court doesn't seem to be an issue for Carlos; he trusts his physical condition, evident in his ability to go the distance in five-set matches. Finding himself in deep waters theoretically favors him; he has lost only one fifth set in his career, and on the opposite side, his opponent, despite improvements, has yet to experience this boundary in the tournament. Therefore, he must dictate play, strike first, and seize initiative from Jannik. Anything else?

No, far from it. His enhanced serve, which performed admirably in Paris but slightly below par against Musetti, is crucial. It allowed him to go toe-to-toe with Jannik in the first set in Rome and set the stage for executing forehand winners from the center of the court and widening the court to exploit openings. In their last encounter, it was precisely this combination, the serve +1 with the forehand, that confounded Jannik: Carlos managed to place over 60% of his serves close to the outer line, forcing Sinner out of his comfort zone and capitalizing with a backhand or a crosscourt shot.

If the Italian takes a step forward on the return, the Murcian always has a clear Plan B: utilizing variations, lifting the ball with topspin to force his opponent to hit over shoulder height, which is typically more challenging. This tactic worked in his favor last year, although Jannik appears ready to withstand these challenges and nullify this strategy. Pressure? Carlos has shown that he can be relied upon in finals, especially in five-setters. An unbeaten streak will come to an end, and we, the fortunate spectators, will be there to witness it. Say your prayers and tuck the kids in, as the mother of all finals is upon us. Who will triumph?

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