Rybakina has worse luck than Sabalenka in the US Open draw

The US Open is here. The last Grand Slam of the season begins next Sunday, August 30, and the tournament organization has released the women's singles draw. In it, Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite to win her third consecutive trophy in New York, while Elena Rybakina arrives with injuries to her Achilles tendon, and the performance of Iga Swiatek will be uncertain, while Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are positioned as the main hopes for American tennis.

1st Quadrant: Sabalenka, a gradual challenge to defend the title

Aryna Sabalenka absolutely needs to defend the US Open title if she doesn't want to end 2026 without winning any Grand Slam, something that hasn't happened to her since 2022. She will begin her fight for a third consecutive title in New York against Camila Osorio. Next, she would face an easier second round against Renata Zarazúa and a possible third against Oksana Selekhmeteva.

But it is in the round of 16 where the first hurdles appear, as her potential rivals could be her nemesis at Roland Garros, Diana Shnaider, or the Paris finalist, Maja Chwalinska. If she manages to overcome this challenge, the next hurdle would be one of the most consistent and challenging players of the year, Marta Kostyuk. Although the Belarusian has beaten her in their five previous encounters. If it’s not the Ukrainian, the alternative would be Linda Noskova, the fresh Wimbledon champion. While in the semifinals, she already awaits formidable rivals like Karolina Muchova, Elina Svitolina, or Jessica Pegula. In short, Sabalenka will have to work hard.

On the other side of her quadrant is Linda Noskova. The Czech arrives in New York after surprising everyone by winning the title in London. On the path to her second Grand Slam, the start will be calm; she will have to debut against Katie Volynets and in the second round would await a qualifying player or Lanlana Tararudee. It will be in the third round where things get serious, as she could face a seeded player like Ann Li. In the round of 16, names like Kostyuk or Alexandrova will appear, and in the quarterfinals, a two-time champion like Aryna Sabalenka.

2nd Quadrant: Pegula can dream of her first Grand Slam

Jessica Pegula, the world number three, is one of the main favorites for the title in New York. A claim that is solidified after a favorable draw, at least in the early rounds. She will debut against Gabriela Ruse, while in the second round she would expect to face the iconic Venus Williams or Sofia Kenin. Already in the third round, the name Leylah Fernandez appears. But up to this point, Pegula's quadrant looks very positive.

In the round of 16, she already faces tough opponents like the ever-dangerous Jasmine Paolini or the reborn Sorana Cirstea. While in the quarterfinals, the options become tough: Karolina Muchova or the always fighting Elina Svitolina. Whichever it is, it would demand much from the American.

And indeed, Karolina Muchova closes the upper part of the draw with a winding path. She will debut against Sinja Kraus and then face Katie Boulter, who is having a very inconsistent year, or Carol Lee. However, in the third round, she could match against a player who has always shown her best version in Flushing Meadows, even if she’s had a year to forget like Emma Navarro. In the round of 16, the most possible names are Anna Kalinskaya, looking to make a definitive leap, or the previously mentioned Elina Svitolina. While in a hypothetical quarterfinal, she would cross paths with the dangerous Pegula.

3rd Quadrant: Andreeva and Gauff will have the toughest path to the title

While Mirra Andreeva lifted the title at Roland Garros, she hasn’t quite shown her best version during the North American hard court swing. But she will have to do so from the start of the tournament if she intends to win her second Grand Slam at 19. Aside from a ‘friendly’ debut against Janice Tjen, in the second round she would have to face Eva Lys or a qualifying player. Then, in the third round, the name of Jelena Ostapenko appears, who is capable of both brilliance and disaster on a tennis court.

If she manages to overcome the Latvian challenge, in the round of 16 she would face a US Open finalist like Amanda Anisimova or the rebellious Anastasia Potapova. So she would have a very demanding duel, whoever the rival may be. But the rest is much tougher, as in the quarterfinals she would compete against a US Open champion like Coco Gauff, the fresh Cincinnati winner. If it’s not Gauff, another complicated name appears in Iva Jovic, who wants to make a mark at the home Grand Slam.

Indeed, the draw has not been kind to Coco Gauff, who will not be able to relax at any moment. Beyond her debut against Zeynep Sonmez, in the second round, her rivals could include our Paula Badosa, who defeated her two months ago on the grass of Berlin, or the consistent Daria Kasatkina. The demands will only increase because in the third round her most likely rival would be the revelation from Cincinnati, Sara Bejlek, although she defeated her 6-4, 6-1 in the Ohio tournament, although the Czech will debut against Cristina Bucsa, who reached the round of 16 in the last edition.

If Gauff overcomes all these hurdles, the round of 16 would be dizzying against the circuit sensation, Alexandra Eala. Meanwhile, another option in this round could be her compatriot Iva Jovic. After all this, she would wait for Andreeva or Anisimova in the quarterfinals. Quite a challenge. It seems Gauff may face the ‘worst’ path to her 3rd Grand Slam.

4th Quadrant: Swiatek, Keys, Osaka, and Rybakina for a single spot in the semifinals

Iga Swiatek will seek in New York, where she reigned in 2022, the joy that she has not found this year in Melbourne, Paris, or London. However, she will need to work hard if she wants to instill fear again. She will kick off against Xiyu Wang, and in the second round, she could face Nadia Podoroska or Simona Waltert. But the first seeded player she could face in the third round would be Marie Bouzkova. If she overcomes the Czech in the round of 16, the names to look out for are Madison Keys or Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals.

Finally, Elena Rybakina, who has not yet confirmed her participation 100% after experiencing discomfort in her Achilles tendon during her participation in Cincinnati, has many chances to leave New York as the world number one. Her early rounds would help not to strain her body too much, with a debut against Thea Frodin and a second round against Jessica Bouzas or Darja Vidmanova, arriving at the third round already recovered to face the always tenacious Maria Sakkari.

If she ends up defeating the Greek, in the round of 16, the rivals would be significant names like Naomi Osaka, champion in 2018 and 2020, and semifinalist last edition. But if it’s not the Japanese, the other name would be Elise Mertens. While in the quarters, she would await someone like Madison Keys or her conqueror in Cincinnati, Iga Swiatek. In the semifinals, the difficulty would be against Mirra Andreeva or Coco Gauff.

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This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Rybakina corre peor suerte que Sabalenka en el cuadro del US Open