Alcaraz will face a "death draw" at the US Open

Diego Jiménez Rubio - 27 Aug 2026 | 18:49
Carlos Alcaraz ATP Novak Djokovic US Open 2026 Rafael Jódar Alexander Zverev

We analyze how the US Open 2026 draw looks for the top favorites after the draw has been made, paying special attention to Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Jódar.

Go to comments section Preferir Puntodebreak en Google
Carlos Alcaraz, draw and opponents at the US Open 2026. Photo: gettyimages

The US Open has already revealed one of the major mysteries before each Grand Slam, which is the arrangement of the final draw. The draw has brought many surprises, revealing the potential opponents round by round for the favorites, highlighting Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Jódar. We break down all the keys by quadrants for what might happen in New York.

Nothing is better than knowing the roadmap needed to achieve a great goal, and that is what the draw of the men's final bracket for the US Open 2026 has offered to the big title contenders. The absence of Sinner and the lack of competitive rhythm and confidence from Carlos Alcaraz allow other aspirants to dream, although the Murcian starts as the favorite, just like Novak Djokovic, more due to intangibles than current form. 

The 128 players who will start their adventure in Flushing Meadows this Sunday will fall in a constant and exciting trickle until only two remain on Sunday, September 13. The way they are organized in the draw gives rise to potential matchups that are worth analyzing. Who has the toughest path? Which of the favorites stands to benefit the most? We analyze it.

Analysis of the Men's Draw for the US Open 2026

1st Quadrant: Zverev, with Jódar as a threat

Cuadro Zverev en US Open

There is great interest in seeing how Alexander Zverev performs in Flushing Meadows after a really erratic North American tour. The German seems to be feeling the physical and mental weariness from Paris and London, but he will need his best version if he wants to advance in the last Grand Slam of the year.

To begin with, Lorenzo Sonego is a really unsettling player; no matter if he is not in his best form, the Italian knows what it is like to play in a Grand Slam quarterfinal and competes well at major events. His path in the second round would be easier, while in the third round the threats of Popyrin, who was a protagonist a few years ago here beating Djokovic, or Tabilo, a player always dangerous due to his left-handedness and versatility in tennis, could alarm a diminished version of the German.

Another Italian, presumably Darderi or Musetti, would mark the boundary in the round of 16. If he overcomes that, De Miñaur or Rafael Jódar will emerge on the horizon. The Spaniard deserves a separate mention, as he could face Casper Ruud in the third round and has an interesting debut against Kokkinakis. There are high expectations to see what he is capable of after being a standout on the previous tour and arriving as one of the most in-form players of the moment.

It won't be easy to stop Álex de Miñaur from asserting his status as the seed in this sector, but the Australian is not arriving at his best moment, and the match against Bergs or De Jong could be a good gauge of his real aspirations.

2nd Quadrant: Fritz and Mensik, threats from Auger-Aliassime and Cobolli

Cuadro Auger-Aliassime en US Open

It’s an absolute field of opportunities that opens up in a quadrant from which the hypothetical semifinal rival of Zverev, Musetti, De Miñaur, or Jódar would emerge. The rankings indicate that Félix Auger-Aliassime and Flavio Cobolli are the favorites, but both will have to work very hard to avoid the pressure from Jakub Mensik, who can perform very well on these courts and will arrive pumped after winning the mixed doubles, or Taylor Fritz, who already knows what it’s like to play a final in this tournament.

Other lesser-known but highly dangerous players could upset all forecasts, such as young players Blockx or Tien. What is clear is that Auger-Aliassime is not arriving in his best moment, while Cobolli seems to be full of confidence, but his potential rivals in the third round and round of 16 are genuinely intriguing.

3rd Quadrant: Djokovic will need to perform from the start

Cuadro Djokovic en US Open

The Serbian can be satisfied with his potential opponent in the quarterfinals since Daniil Medvedev does not induce fear with his current form and spirits. However, the Serbian has tough obstacles to overcome before reaching that round, and we know he usually goes from less to more, which may raise doubts about his viability as a strong title candidate.

Mariano Navone will require a lot of physical consistency and tactical intelligence from the Serbian, something he has lacked outside Grand Slams lately. If he wins, he will face an old glory, either Berrettini or Wawrinka, who on a day of inspiration remain intriguing, especially the Italian.

However, hostilities could arrive with Etcheverry, a man who adapts very well to humid heat conditions, as evidenced in Miami or Rio de Janeiro this year, and with Nakashima or Rublev in the round of 16. The American is the major revelation of the previous tour, with great performances in Montreal and Cincinnati, so a clash with Djokovic would be a significant test for the Serbian.

If he were to overcome that, Novak knows that in the quarterfinals there is a wide variety of candidates to be his rival, while he may regret not having avoided either Alcaraz or Shelton before the final.

Looking at Medvedev's section, among those who could take advantage of his current weakness are Jaume Munar and, above all, Frances Tiafoe, who if capable of maintaining the excellent level of play he demonstrated in Cincinnati could find himself with a golden opportunity in his career to be a prophet in his land.

4th Quadrant: Alcaraz has no room for doubt

Cuadro Alcaraz en US Open

When returning to competition after a long period of inactivity, the last thing one desires is to face complicated opponents from the start who can demand a lot. That is what Carlos Alcaraz will encounter, debuting at the US Open 2026 against a Roman Safiullin, a specialist in rising to the occasion on big stages, and whose flat and powerful tennis can do a lot of damage to the Spaniard. He already demonstrated this a few years ago in Paris-Bercy when he beat the Murcian.

If the wrist holds up and the body is well-lubricated, Carlos should win and test himself again against Faria or Brooksby, two players who will make it very hard for him, with the Portuguese clearly on the rise, while the local player is unpredictable and uncomfortable if not in top form.

The outlook could clear a little more for Alcaraz if he overcomes those two initial hurdles, as in the third round, the potential opponent is Matteo Arnaldi. The Italian is a player of a high level, but he lacks the experience and stature of other seeds that could have fallen to the current champion in this round. In any case, it will be an interesting touchstone to gauge Carlos's level, provided he gets there, as Duckworth, Wu, or Walton could hinder the Italian's dream earlier.

Looking ahead to the round of 16, we find two players very different from each other, but who share the idea of rising to the occasion on big stages and being very dangerous for Carlos. Tommy Paul has already shown this, as despite not having the best season of his career, he has a playing style that bothers Alcaraz, which is evident from their previous encounters, with the American having won twice, although the last five meetings between them ended in victories for Carlos.

In any case, it must be assumed that, very likely, we will not see a stellar version of Alcaraz, so both the American, but also the ever unpredictable Bublik, could be difficult obstacles to overcome. It is true that the Kazakh arrives without rhythm as he has not competed in previous tournaments, which tempers his danger, at least on paper.

If Carlos were to reach the quarterfinals, it could already be considered a good performance, but it would be impossible not to dream of something more, as it would imply that he is feeling much better than some think. Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, or Jiri Lehecka are the most probable rivals at that stage of the tournament, which would be a cold shower for the Murcian.

And these are some of the players to avoid for the favorites until the final rounds; the two Masters 1000 winners from the tour could face each other in the round of 16 to determine who prevails in that sector, provided Lehecka and Norrie allow it, among others. Both Ben and Arthur arrive with a lot of confidence and would be a daunting opponent for Alcaraz.

It should be noted that if Carlos prevails and makes it to the quarterfinals, he would face either Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, or whoever survives from the section where the Balkan will compete, thereby avoiding names like Zverev, Auger-Aliassime, or Jódar until the final.

Alcaraz, the big loser of the draw

There is no other possible conclusion. Carlos Alcaraz will have to face very significant challenges from the first round, in a tournament he arrives at without match practice, lacking competitive rhythm, and needing to test his wrist and physical strength for important challenges. He will not have room for relaxation, as the third round may be the easiest part of a path in which he has been "blessed" with Ben Shelton as a potential opponent in the quarterfinals, the player to avoid in that round for the top contenders.

As if this weren't enough, he could face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, while in the round of 16 he would have a tough test against rivals like Paul and Bublik, who are always dangerous. In summary, the Spaniard will need his best version if he wants to have a chance to defend the title in New York.

This is the final men's draw for the US Open 2026

Cuadro US Open 2026 parte alta.
Cuadro parte baja de Alcaraz.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Alcaraz afrontará un "cuadro de la muerte" en el US Open