The circuit's game plan to beat Alcaraz: five keys to defeat the king

After a truly stellar start to the season, with victories in Australia and Doha, the North American hard court swing has provided Carlos Alcaraz with completely different sensations. From the joy and euphoria of making history to a total emptiness after so many miles traveled: fatigue has taken over, even on a mental level, for the Murcian. Not only on the court have we seen a more hesitant version: also, even in press conferences.

His now famous phrase at Indian Wells, one where he said he was tired of playing against Roger Federer (referring to the extra motivation and the very high level that his opponents present when facing him) unleashed a small Pandora's box. Beyond the comments and opinions, with many analysts expressing surprise, they were a small prelude to the two defeats that have left a bitter taste in the Murcian's mouth.

Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Korda, who defeated the player from Murcia in California and Florida, are far from being anything remotely similar to the Swiss master... but they do share an important similarity: they both implemented a tactic that focused on exploiting Carlos's weaknesses, a game plan learned behind the scenes with the objective of disrupting the rhythm, destabilizing, and taking control away from the Murcian player. Difficult to execute? Certainly... but there is already a significant (and similar) sample to analyze what those keys are, also utilized by other players like Arthur Rinderknech, who took a set from him in Indian Wells, or in the past by players like Jan-Lennard Struff.

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This is the anti-Alcaraz tactic that Carlos must react to: five keys to defeat the world number one

TOTAL ATTACK: From the back of the court, Alcaraz has become, alongside Sinner, the best player in the world. The effort and drain it takes for the whole circuit to withstand his attacks from the baseline is too heavy a burden. Therefore, it's necessary to increase the levels of aggressiveness to prevent Carlos from dominating, to take more risks than usual without thinking about possible errors... but always ending with a higher percentage of attacking shots than Carlos.

Korda surpassed him in this aspect (34% of attacking shots to only 21% by Carlos) and so did Medvedev (30% to 22%, despite being considered a more defensive player); in the Russian's case, the gamble is even greater, stepping out of his comfort zone with constant parallel backhand attacks, destroying the forehand and playing at a speed, even, that he is rarely accustomed to. It was necessary, however, to make the Murcian doubt... and in three sets, of course, it is much simpler to maintain that level of explosiveness and precision.

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RISKING THE SERVE... EVEN WITH THE SECOND SERVES: How can you be better positioned than someone like Alcaraz on your first shot? There is no better way out than having a splendid day, something that seems inevitable if you think about defeating the player from Murcia. The examples from Indian Wells and Miami are perfect: while Carlos experienced doubts and lacked precision in his first serves at the end of 2025, Korda and Medvedev were clinical in this aspect, always being more accurate than the player from Murcia with their first serves.

The first serves of the American averaged 45 cm distance to the service box lines, while those of the Russian were 48 cm; even Rinderknech, in the first set he stole in Indian Wells, also adjusted his to the same figure (48cm). And Carlos? His best performance was with Sebastian, but his average was significantly lower, staying at 61 cm. In the matches against Daniil and Arthur, his serves do average more than 70cm distance, a quite substantial difference: a fact that explains why these players were always well positioned to attack the Spaniard from the first ball. Also important is the note on the second serve: it is preferable to take risks and commit double faults (see Medvedev) than to opt for safe serves that allow Carlos to gain confidence from the return.

APPROACHING THE NET TO APPLY PRESSURE: Alcaraz's passing shots festival should not intimidate the players from attacking the net constantly against the Spaniard. Imagine this, Daniil Medvedev, who at times seems like an octopus in a garage near the net: he matched Carlos' points in that part of the court (22 each), while Korda and Rinderknech created a much more unequal balance (34 approaches by Korda and only 12 by Alcaraz; 20 approaches by Rinderknech and only 8 by Alcaraz).

Seeing Carlos defending himself so often, with his opponents gaining a significant lead in points at the net, is strange: it highlights that suffocating him is the only way to undermine his confidence when attacking, it's preferable to "swallow" several trademark passing shots, but to persist in lightning-fast approaches that often cloud his thoughts.

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FLAT BACKHAND, LOW AND SUPERIOR TO THE FOREHAND: If Rafa Nadal struggled much more against opponents with a better backhand than forehand, Alcaraz faces the same. His first successful opponents back in 2022 and 2023 (Sinner, Ruusuvuori) heavily focused on flat cross-court backhand exchanges: after improving sensationally, tactics must evolve (as we've seen, be a more offensive player if you want to beat him), but the mold and profile of a player capable of complicating things from the baseline still exhibit this characteristic.

He suffered it in his own flesh before the setbacks of Korda and Medvedev: none of them exceeds an average of 1700 rpm. Their backhands are true Swiss knives, as they have a very flat, low shot that bounces lower than Alcaraz would like: on a hard court, it can become a complication, although it must be accompanied by the ability to break with the parallel after several exchanges, something that Sinner perfected and that the American and Russian also used to defeat Carlos in the United States.

HITTING IN FRONT... AND MORE THAN USUAL: The pattern here becomes more visible than ever, one of those visual keys that should push all players to take several steps forward when facing Carlos. If we look at the hitting position in the exchanges, in 39% of the shots, both from Medvedev and Korda, they occurred inside the court: both average 28% of shots in this area of the field. The 10% increase is practically necessary.

There is no other way to put Carlos in trouble: you must risk hitting aggressive shots through the net early on, but not give up your position near the baseline... or you're completely done. Each flat and low shot close to the line can undermine Alcaraz's confidence when delivering his usual heavy ball, and the hard court doesn't reward as much the high topspin with which he used to annihilate Jannik in several encounters. Therefore, taking more risks to achieve a big reward: it is crucial to hit well-placed shots within the court... much more than your average.

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The anti-Alcaraz profile seems clear: players with a better backhand than forehand, with very flat shots that barely clear the net, but also with a renewed ability to be precise on serve, take risks on second serves, and seek that offensive, first-strike tennis, which is increasingly abundant on the circuit. It is the evolution of what players like Sinner or Ruusuvuori did, an adaptation to which Carlos, aware that opponents now come out to hunt him down and instill fear from the first ball, must react. Will he do it soon?

Alcaraz said he was tired of always playing against Roger Federer.

Is it really so?

In his recent defeats, his opponents have repeated a series of PATTERNS that reveal a TACTIC they all use to beat him.

Find out more here ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/DWlUGK3BIM

— José Morón (@jmgmoron) March 23, 2026

Photos and data courtesy of Insights by TennisVIZ

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, El plan de juego del circuito para batir a Alcaraz: cinco claves para derrotar al rey