This will be the battle for the number 1 spot in the ATP ranking between Alcaraz and Sinner at the beginning of 2026

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 17 Nov 2025 | 11.01

Fight for world number 1 between Alcaraz and Sinner. Photo: gettyimages

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The echoes of what happened in Turin are still resonating, and it is already inevitable to look towards the future. Tennis does not stop, and in just over a month and a half, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will kick off a new season where the ATP ranking number 1 will be at stake. The advantage held by the Spaniard is not significant, so there could be changes at the top of the rankings.

We always want more. The human mind is insatiable, and in a sport like tennis, this is even more palpable. Carlos Alcaraz has achieved a great goal by finishing 2025 as the ATP ranking number 1, but immediately, fans' minds start to think about how long the Spaniard can maintain that privileged position. The assaults of Jannik Sinner are as incessant as they are resounding, so it is worth dissecting what might happen in the first trimester of 2026.

Sinner won't be able to snatch the world number 1 from Alcaraz before February

Carlos Alcaraz won't lose the world number 1 at the 2026 Australian Open. Why? The difference between them is 550 points, with the Italian defending the title in Melbourne, so he won't be able to add points even if he wins. As for Carlos, he defends only 400 points from his quarterfinalist position last year; not even by not competing in Australia could the Italian surpass the Spaniard.

Therefore, Alcaraz is ensured to reach February 9, 2026, as the ATP ranking number 1, which would mark 58 weeks for him in this position. He would equal Jim Courier in the 13th position of players with the most time at the top of the rankings, and the chances of continuing to accumulate points would depend on what happens in Melbourne and the results in the subsequent weeks.

Alcaraz needs to widen his lead in Australia to arrive in Rotterdam, Indian Wells, and Miami with a significant advantage

Only if Jannik does not defend his title at the Australian Open, would Alcaraz enjoy a substantial advantage that could keep him as the world number 1 until the start of the clay court season. Sinner won't have points to defend during three months of competition. Everything he does in Rotterdam, Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami will add to his own tally, while the Spaniard defends 1,010 points in that part of the season, with room to gain a lot in Miami.

Alcaraz's top priority will be to arrive in Rotterdam with a lead greater than the current one, to ensure that the number 1 spot isn't up for grabs in the Dutch tournament. Everything will depend on the events in Melbourne, but a victory for the Spaniard would mean acquiring a considerable gap over Sinner, guaranteeing his stay as number 1 until the first two Masters 1000 of the season. If Carlos loses in the quarters or earlier in Australia, and Sinner retains the title, there is a possibility that an alternation in the top of the rankings could occur in Rotterdam.

Things will become even more favorable for the Italian in the early stages of the clay court season, as he won't defend a single point in Monte Carlo and Madrid, while Alcaraz will begin a multi-month period where he can hardly add points, thanks to his outstanding performance in that part of the season during 2025. In any case, intense emotions are on the horizon in the battle between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner for the ATP ranking number 1 during the first quarter of competition in 2026.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Así será la lucha por el número 1 del ranking ATP entre Alcaraz y Sinner a inicios del 2026