The three key elements of the ATP Finals final: Alcaraz vs Sinner

Carlos Navarro | 16 Nov 2025 | 00.24

Alcaraz and Sinner will battle for the title in Turin. Who will win? Source: Getty

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When Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner face off in a new final within the ATP circuit, it starts to surprise very few. In a 2025 where both have consolidated their dominance, light-years ahead of the rest of the circuit, Turin will be a new (and the last) stage to test the world number one and number two on the battlefield. Four out of the five big finals of the season bear their name; only the Australian Open is saved, a distant memory, the only asterisk within a succession of battles for glory between the two great dominators of the circuit.

Now, Jannik Sinner starts as the favorite in the ATP Finals 2025 where he has shown he feels at home. He conquered the title last year without dropping a set and has unleashed that level with a particularly powerful performance on serve: he has won 18 sets in a row in Turin, has seen no one manage to break his serve (saving 11 out of 11 break points) and displays a calmness that scares everyone when it comes to sealing crucial points. If Jannik represents continuity, Carlos Alcaraz is evolution: he had never reached the final on a court that used to trouble him, but he has done so by improving steadily, ending with a complete performance against Aliassime where all aspects of his game came together to produce one of his best matches of the year. The build-up to the tournament certainly couldn't be more enticing.

Before delving into the key aspects of this match, it is worth showcasing through the data the exceptional level both players have displayed in Turin. Sinner's serving prowess is exemplified by an average rating of 9.1, a statistic we will explore further; Carlos also elevates his game with his serve, averaging 0.6 points higher than his yearly mean (reaching 8.4). The significant performance of the Spaniard is also visible in his backhand, where he averages the same score as Jannik (8.8, matching the Italian in this crucial aspect); however, Jannik has slightly outperformed him in rallies and forehand play, likely due to the Murcian's inconsistency in the early matches (his standout performance against Aliassime, where his forehand shone and registered double-digit winners, helps elevate his numbers significantly).

The Serve, a Vital Weapon for Sinner and the Key to Overcoming What Happened at the US Open

Throughout the recent 2025 US Open, Jannik Sinner averaged around 50/55% of first serves in. Dropping nearly 10% compared to his annual average, the Italian was completely at the mercy of a very determined Alcaraz on many service games, exposing a weakness that the Murcian exploited time and time again. Sinner, with splendid willpower to correct mistakes, returned to the lab with Cahill and Vagnozzi to refine a weapon that had stagnated, a significant handicap in his quest to gain an upper hand in his battles against Carlos.

The result? After a long period of adaptation on the Asian tour, the serve of Jannik Sinner soars in these ATP Finals. From a paltry 55% of first serves in play in New York, we have now reached a daunting average of 73%; he has also increased the average points won on first serve (currently averaging 84%, 5% higher than his 2025 average), saved all 12 break points faced, and made it so that 50% of his first serves don't even come back into play.

Perhaps, the most remarkable aspect is the precision in his missiles: the average distance to the lines of the service box is 44 centimeters, a substantial improvement compared to his annual average (54 cm). Only 4 out of over 100 first serves by Jannik in this tournament have landed in the center of the service box: he is painting the lines, becoming the best spot server of the tournament and instilling fear in his opponents with a weapon he desperately needs to apply pressure on Carlos.

Growing from defense and putting a lot of pressure back, the shortcut for Carlos to grow

Alcaraz has shown in his recent duels against Jannik Sinner that his serve has evolved in such a way that it equals and even surpasses the performance of the Italian. Knowing that this box is checked off (unless, of course, the player from Murcia forgets this subject tomorrow, in which case he will suffer immensely), one of the historical keys to his victories against Sinner lies in how he manages to prevent the Italian's attacks from being accurate.

What do we mean by this? Jannik averages a 74% 'Conversion' rate, meaning he can win 74% of the points when he is in an attacking position. However, whenever he faces Carlos Alcaraz, his percentage drops to... 61%! In other words: no one dismantles Jannik's offense better than the player from Murcia. Two factors shed light on this statistic: the mental baggage of that 10-5 defeat and the variety of weapons that Carlos possesses makes the player from San Candido less clinical in his attacks, playing under more pressure knowing that Carlos' threat is constant... and, secondly, the anticipation and defensive-to-offensive transition of the player from Murcia is out of this world.

No one predicts where the opponent's hits will go better than the player from Murcia, capable of stealing 39% of the points from defense in his matches against Jannik. An essential element for making the Italian doubt and earn fewer free points lies in the defense of the player from Murcia. He can make the 50% of first serves that don't come back, which Sinner averages in this tournament, drop to 37% in their head-to-head, and, as we saw in New York, applies superhuman pressure on second serves, creating extra pressure that prevents the Italian from playing his tennis. Defense, anticipation, and speed: from defense, although it may seem improbable, Carlos has built a great fortress over Sinner. Lowering the percentage of unreturned serves, as he has historically done, is the first step to undermine Jannik's morale and tip the balance in his favor.

2025 Average Data for Sinner and Alcaraz

Average data of Alcaraz and Sinner when facing each other: the Italian is lagging behind in everything.

Variety and domination of the forehand: Alcaraz takes control

Carlos' defeat in the Wimbledon final highlighted several flaws in his game against Jannik: the lack of variety in his shots and the inability of his forehand to make a difference. When facing the Italian, Carlos' forehand averages a grade of 8.9: it is the ace up his sleeve that allows him to dominate and force Sinner from the center of the baseline, even surpassing his usual average (which stands at 8.5).

Carlos' right hand shines every time he faces Jannik is no coincidence. It is a Swiss army knife capable of adapting to any terrain, the great weapon to force Sinner to move not only horizontally but forward (with 3/4 shots and short angles) and deny him the opportunity to engage in the battle of flat cross-strokes that he enjoys so much. To get there, of course, beyond the aforementioned aggressiveness on the return, it seems essential to never repeat the same shot: vary speeds with slice, be deep with the parallel shots, and, in short, never allow Sinner to always hit the same shot... until he, at that point, can strike with his forehand.

Jannik will try to prevent this by seeking to be absolutely relentless with his serve, stocking up on short points to mentally impact Alcaraz, who may perhaps rush. Both are proving to be unassailable in key points, and on such a fast surface, the margins appear, indeed, smaller than ever. The last ATP-level match of the season will elevate one master from among the two most outstanding students of their generation. In a doctoral year, the final assignment hangs by a thread, a final duel for glory in which each pawn will move differently in pursuit of mastering the chess game. Tomorrow, 18:00, Inalpi Arena will deliver judgment... and we will be there to enjoy it.