Aliassime and the keys that could surprise Sinner in the Paris final

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Two of the best indoor hard court players in the world reach the final of the Paris tournament. It could not be otherwise: Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime, although following different paths throughout the event, are true guarantees of success when external conditions dissipate and the lights of a pavilion light up. It won't be their first time dancing together, but it will be their first time fighting for a title, a match that, not to mention, will have important consequences for the winner: the Canadian would secure his spot in the ATP Finals, and the Italian would momentarily return to the world number one position.

Jannik Sinner is the top contender to win the title at the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025. This prediction extends beyond the match tomorrow: the San Candido native could assert this title against anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz, especially on his favorite surface where his transformation began at the end of 2023. Moreover, his performances against Shelton and Zverev are truly intimidating: he neutralized their styles with an outstanding return game, he found the crosscourt forehand to consistently outplay them, and he eliminated the number of unforced errors that plagued him in other matches (especially in the round of 16 against Fran Cerúndolo).

However, in the title showdown, he will face the toughest opponent left in the draw, an opponent who significantly raises his game on indoor courts and is having a fantastic final sprint of the season. Felix Auger Aliassime needed to shine to return to the ATP Finals, and indeed, he is doing so: with several agonizing comebacks included (coming back from a set down against Altmaier and Muller) and a fluid and assertive performance in the semifinals (30 winners against Bublik), the Quebecois will battle for his first Masters 1000 title, intending to achieve it even if he has to face adversity.

Aliassime will need to avoid Sinner's backhand and maintain impressive serving stats in Paris

The match seems to revolve around Jannik's racquet, on the verge of regaining the top spot in the world rankings, which is no secret; however, Aliassime may have a couple of aces up his sleeve to discomfort him, as demonstrated in their semifinal clash at the previous US Open, where he came within a hair's breadth of pushing the match to a fifth set, making his opponent uncomfortable for long stretches of the game.

The Canadian set that trap under a clear premise that he never deviated from: Total aggressiveness, regardless of the cost. Some may think, of course, that this is already Aliassime's usual style, but the truth is that he went beyond his comfort zone by playing short points even from the return, a facet of his game not as developed. Felix attacked Sinner's second serves, including crosscourt backhand returns, denying him time and space and accelerating the game from the first ball, a tactic he must replicate tomorrow afternoon if he wants to have a chance.

To achieve this, maintaining the standout statistics he has been averaging in Paris is crucial. This tournament in 2025 is where he is averaging the highest score, a whopping 8.36 (well above his 7.74 for the season), all due to playing with the same aggressiveness and killer instinct he displayed in that semifinal: he improves his annual average points won when attacking (from 28% to 32% in this tournament), his conversion rate on attack points (finishing 75% of points he dominates against his opponent, compared to the season average of 70%), and has turned his serve into an uncontestable stronghold that he will undoubtedly need against Jannik (85% of points won with the first serve, compared to the season average of 78%; 48% of his first serves do not return, compared to the season's 45% average, and he also averages 3 km/h more on his first serve).

Why does the Canadian need all this? To avoid the debacle he faced in Cincinnati, where Sinner tormented him through his major weakness: the backhand crosscourt. That quarter-final clash, before the US Open, was a perfect example of how Felix can crumble if he is not decisive with his serve and fails to close most of his points with the serve + 1 and, in general, in short exchanges: he averaged only a 6.6 with the serve, resulting in him attacking much less than Sinner (21% of the points, compared to the Italian's 31%, a significant difference) and lacking the killer instinct to finish points when in an offensive position (he only won 58% of the points where he had the upper hand; in contrast, Sinner won 87%).

But back to the backhand crosscourt: Aliassime's inability to close points quickly, being forced to rally from the baseline due to limited free points with his first serve, allowed Jannik to torture him in backhand crosscourt rallies, exploiting his weak point and frustrating the Canadian. This was the most common pattern of play from the baseline, with a significant difference: Sinner played 38% of his points on that side (it was his second most frequent pattern from the baseline, as he only played 15% of points with the crosscourt forehand), whereas every time Aliassime was drawn into those backhand exchanges, he only came out on top... in one point out of the 29 where he utilized his backhand crosscourt! Absolutely staggering: Jannik shut down Felix's game from the back court, who couldn't generate points effectively through the backhand side. (Sinner's backhand usage in Cincinnati is shown in the lower-left image, Aliassime's backhand usage in Cincinnati in the lower-right image).

Ultimately, the Canadian must be precise, swift, and unafraid in a shootout where mistakes might occur; it will always be advisable to take the match in this direction rather than risk losing in the backhand crosscourt exchanges, a strategy that Jannik will consistently pursue (especially considering how well he's hitting the crosscourt forehand in this tournament). Will Aliassime be the quickest gunslinger in old Paris to claim the biggest title of his career? Will Sinner impose his dominance and neutralize Felix's best shots from the baseline? Only tomorrow will reveal the outcome.

Image source: Insights by Tennis VIZ

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Auger-Aliassime y las claves por las que podría sorprender a Sinner en la final de París