Analysis of the Rolex Paris Masters 2025 Draw: Zverev falls on Sinner's side, but Alcaraz will have a demanding path

Andrés Tomás Rico | 24 Oct 2025 | 19.50

Analysis of the Rolex Paris Masters 2025 bracket: Zverev falls on Sinner's side, but Alcaraz will have a demanding path. Photo: Gettyimages

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The season is starting to come to an end and the last Masters 1000 of the season is making its presence felt. The ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025 changes venue from Bercy to La Défense Arena, but the essence is expected to remain intact. Especially if the favorites list includes Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

Both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will be seeking their first title at the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025, but it's worth noting the presence of the defending champion, Alexander Zverev, who needs to approach the ATP Finals with the best sensations. While names like Casper Ruud, Alex de Miñaur, or Daniil Medvedev are emerging as candidates to cause surprise during an edition where the seven-time champion, Novak Djokovic, will be absent.

Analysis of the ATP Rolex Paris Masters 2025 Draw

1st quadrant

Potential opponents for Carlos Alcaraz: Bye / Báez - Norrie / Vacherot - Rinderknech - Lehecka / Ruud - Auger Aliassime / Fritz - De Miñaur - Khachanov / Sinner - Zverev- Musetti - Shelton

Potential opponents for Casper Ruud: Bye / Giron - Altimaier / Aliassime - Nakashima / Alcaraz - Lehecka / Fritz - Khachanov - De Miñaur / Sinner - Zverev - Musetti - Shetlon

Carlos Alcaraz faces an interesting and demanding draw. The world number one will have an accessible opening match, but from the third round onward, challenges arise with Valentin Vacherot, one of the most in-form players after his success in Shanghai, his cousin Arthur Rinderknech, or Jiri Lehecka. Moving into the quarterfinals, Casper Ruud and Félix Auger Aliassime, recent champions in Stockholm and Brussels respectively, loom. The semifinals could bring a showdown against Taylor Fritz, Alex de Miñaur, or Karen Khachanov. All this in a week with minimal rest, requiring the world number one to be at 100% from the start.

While Casper Ruud, arriving in good form, has had a somewhat luckier path in his second round, but by the third round, he could face a tough competitor like Auger-Aliassime and would struggle if he meets Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. The path remains the same from there as the Spaniard.

2nd quadrant

Potential opponents for Taylor Fritz: Bye / Atmane / Moutet - Bublik / Khachanov - De Miñaur - Fonseca / Alcaraz - Ruud - Auger Aliassime / Sinner - Zverev- Musetti - Shelton

Potential opponents for Alex de Miñaur: Bye / Diallo - Griekspoor / Fonseca - Khachanov / Bublik - Fritz - Moutet / Alcaraz - Ruud - Auger Aliassime / Sinner - Zverev- Musetti - Shelton

Taylor Fritz will have a smoother debut, but in the round of 16, he could face two virtuosos like Corentin Moutet or Alexander Bublik. Moving into the quarterfinals, he might encounter Alex de Miñaur or Karen Khachanov, with potential semifinal opponents including Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, or Auger-Aliassime.

Meanwhile, Alex de Miñaur will need to be alert from his opening match against Gabriel Diallo or Tallon Griekspoor. In the round of 16, he could face Joao Fonseca or Karen Khachanov, and in the quarterfinals, formidable rivals like Alexander Bublik, Corentin Moutet, or Taylor Fritz await.

3rd quadrant

Potential opponents for Lorenzo Musetti: Bye / Sonego / Medvedev - Munar - Dimitrov / Davidovich - Zverev- Humbert / Sinner - Shelton - Rublev - Mensik / Alcaraz - Ruud - Fritz- De Miñaur

Potential opponents for Alexander Zverev: Bye / Ugo Carabelli / Davidovich - Umbert / Medvedev - Musetti - Dimitrov / Sinner - Shelton - Rublev - Mensik / Alcaraz - Ruud - Fritz- De Miñaur

Lorenzo Musetti faces a challenging draw. The Italian is aiming to qualify for the ATP Finals and would need to overcome obstacles like Lorenzo Sonego in the second round, then either an in-form Daniil Medvedev or Jaume Munar in the round of 16. The quarterfinals could bring a clash with champion Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich, or Ugo Humbert. Moving into the semifinals, the competition intensifies with Jannik Sinner, Ben Shelton, Andrey Rublev, or Jajub Mensik.

Defending champion Alexander Zverev starts his title defense smoothly until the round of 16, where he could face the same opponent he defeated in last year's final, Ugo Humbert, or Alejandro Davidovich. Subsequently, in the quarterfinals, he may encounter the resurgent Daniil Medvedev or Lorenzo Musetti.

4th quadrant

Potential opponents for Ben Shelton: Bye / Cobolli - Machac / Tien - Rublev / Mensik - Sinner - Michelsen / Musetti - Medvedev - Zverev - Davidovich / Alcaraz - Ruud - Fritz- De Miñaur

Potential opponents for Jannik Sinner: Bye / Bergs - Michelsen / Mensik - Cerúndolo / Shelton - Rublev - Tien / Musetti - Medvedev - Zverev - Davidovich / Alcaraz - Ruud - Fritz- De Miñaur

Ben Shelton must be on top of his game from the first match if he wants to secure his spot in the ATP Finals. His debut could be against Tomas Machac, followed by Learner Tien or Andrey Rublev in the round of 16, and potentially Jannik Sinner, Jakub Mensik, or Alex Michelsen in the quarters.

Jannik Sinner also faces a tough road. The world number two kicks off against potential challengers like Zizou Bergs or Alex Michelsen. In the round of 16, he could meet Jakub Mensik or Fran Cerúndolo, with the possibility of facing Ben Shelton or Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. If he advances, a semifinal showdown could await him against Lorenzo Musetti, Daniil Medvedev, defending champion Alexander Zverev, or Alejandro Davidovich. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, would have to wait for a potential final.