This is how the fight for the ATP Finals 2025 will be

Carlos Navarro | 9 Sep 2025 | 17.10

This is how the battle for the ATP Finals 2025 is shaping up, with several spots yet to be decided. Source: Getty

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After the US Open 2025 is over, we are now entering the final stretch of the season. There are no Grand Slams left, but ahead of us are some of the most iconic venues on the circuit, with major tournaments that offer a multitude of points to be earned. Two Masters 1000 (Shanghai and Paris-Bercy), several prestigious 500s (Vienna, Basel, Beijing, or Tokyo), and of course, an unbeatable grand finale for which several players have begun an impressive race against time: the ATP Finals 2025.

The ATP Masters event is shaping up to be thrilling and far from being completely defined. With so many important tournaments ahead, practically any player in the top-20 of the ATP Race has great chances of qualifying by winning a major title (in this case, the 1000 points awarded by a Masters 1000). However, some players have more opportunities than others in this highly exciting race.

THE QUALIFIERS AND THE ENIGMA OF NOVAK DJOKOVIC

With the Grand Slams of 2025 already concluded, it is more than obvious to state that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are more than assured of their participation in Turin. They are exempt from any analysis and would be at 100% even if they did not play a single point from now until the end of the season. Also seemingly assured is the presence of Novak Djokovic, who, with 4180 points, surpasses the ninth-ranked player by more than 1000 points. The big question, of course, is whether the Serbian will want to participate in this event: he already ruled out his presence last year, it doesn't offer him many incentives (he is already the player with the most ATP Finals titles in history), and following his loss in the 2025 US Open, he only confirmed his participation in the ATP Finals in Athens, relocated from Belgrade, at the end of the season.

With the likely absence of Nole, the field of opportunities becomes even more open. The vacated spot would grant a ticket to the ninth-best player of the year... who, incidentally, will also not be attending Turin no matter what happens. This player is Jack Draper, who seemed like a very strong candidate in the first quarter of the season but has seen his chances dashed by physical issues, preventing what would have been his debut in this event. As you can see, the field becomes even more open... and there are many contenders to explore.

TWO SPOTS FOR OVER TEN PLAYERS

If there are no catastrophes, three other prominent names are very close to securing their place in Turin. These are Alexander Zverev (4180 points), Ben Shelton (3710), and Taylor Fritz (3465 points), three players who performed well in the last part of the year (Fritz was a semifinalist in Shanghai last year, Zverev won the title in Paris-Bercy, and Shelton claimed his first major title in Tokyo two seasons ago). Considering the absences of Novak and Draper, they currently hold between 700 and 1300 points above the last player that would miss out on this race.

From here on, a fierce competition begins that could lead to unexpected invitees. Alex de Miñaur is in seventh place with 3145 points, a reasonable distance from the cutoff (440 points) but by no means definitive for complete tranquility. Lorenzo Musetti (3070) would close the list of qualifiers if Djokovic decides to play; his probable absence opens up the field of candidates and gives more peace of mind to the Italian, who is under pressure from Felix Auger-Aliassime seeking to capitalize on his great form in New York to return to a stage he only enjoyed in 2022.

The Canadian seems most likely to snatch one of the current spots, but he is not the only one. He wouldn't need to move up if Novak decides not to enter; in that case, Andrey Rublev (2410 points) would be the first name pursuing an advancement. Positioned 300 points behind the Canadian, the battle would be fierce... but it is not limited to the Russian alone. As mentioned earlier, it is highly likely that a title in a Masters 1000 could bring any player in the top-20 into contention: Khachanov, Rune, Bublik, Tommy Paul, or even our Alejandro Davidovich could have their chances, which would increase even more if Djokovic is absent from Turin.

Therefore, it is important to focus all our attention on a race more wide open than ever, with two spots (which will most likely be three thanks to Novak) completely open to surprises. If we were to look at the current standings, we would see two debutants in Turin: Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti. Will the year's top 10 remain as it is? Will there be a major surprise that adds excitement to one of the most beautiful battles in the next months? Only time will give us the answers.