Analysis of the women's semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open: Sabalenka and Swiatek, favorites

We dissect the tactical aspects that could determine the course of the two women's semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 22 Jan 2025 | 18.05
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Analysis of the Women's Semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open. Photo: gettyimages
Analysis of the Women's Semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open. Photo: gettyimages

Exciting clashes of styles and personalities await in the women's semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open, with Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek seeking to assert their favorites' status against Paula Badosa and Madison Keys, who arrive brimming with confidence and ready to spring some surprises. We delve deep into what can be expected from both matches.

Gone are the times when inconsistency among the world's best was used as a mantra to trivialize women's tennis. The 2025 Australian Open has once again confirmed the consistency of the two dominant figures in world tennis, as well as the existence of a second tier filled with players capable of anything, striving with determination and solid arguments for an upgrade. Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek aim to expand their legacy and fiercely compete for the world number 1 spot, but they may find two colossal tennis players intervening in their personal duel, namely Paula Badosa and Madison Keys.

- Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa, intimate foes

There are no friends on the court, especially not for two voracious competitors like the Belarusian and the Spaniard. Aryna Sabalenka knows she is the clear favorite, having a special connection with Australia, a country where she reigns with an iron fist due to how well her tennis adapts to the Australian summer conditions. She has dropped only one set throughout the tournament, with the occurrence against Pvvlyuchenkova serving as a clear warning that she cannot afford to relax.

On the other hand, Paula Badosa faced a tough battle against Kostyuk and is displaying a maturity rarely seen in her career when it comes to managing tight situations in closely contested matches. Beating Gauff the way she did is the best endorsement to believe that she has options to continue progressing, especially considering she has nothing to lose anymore. These will be her first Grand Slam semifinals, something that could have a slight mental impact.

Tactical keys and head-to-head between Sabalenka and Badosa

They have met in a total of 7 encounters, with a favorable balance for Aryna of 5-2, emerging victorious in the last five matchups. Paula's triumphs came in 2021, in Cincinnati and the WTA Finals, a period when the Spaniard was showing her best form. While it's true that Sabalenka's improvement since that year is noticeable, Badosa seems to have regained her top form and even in moments of struggle with lack of confidence and injuries, she was able to compete against the Belarusian.

The chances of an upset lie in finding a perfect balance between aggressiveness and consistency by the Spaniard. Sabalenka cannot be defeated by granting her control, but engaging in fast-paced baseline rallies may succumb to Aryna's superior shot power.

Variations in height with the backhand and forehand when defending, as well as moving up to the court whenever the opportunity arises, will be non-negotiable elements in Badosa's tactical playbook, as she needs to be sharp and aggressive both in her return and serve. The night session setting significantly favors the Belarusian, with greater ability to accelerate without being troubled by the effects that the Spaniard can generate.

- Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys, clash of styles with glory at stake

It's challenging to find two current top-10 players (the American will be there next Monday) with such different playing styles and approaches to tennis, ensuring an entertaining spectacle. Iga Swiatek enters this match full of confidence and mentally fresh, having lost only 14 games throughout the tournament. Her tennis is shining brightly, but playing during the day and in hot conditions greatly benefits her game, and she has faced opponents who haven't tested her as much as the American will.

As for Madison Keys, it's important to note that her issues have always come from inconsistency in maintaining her highest level, but when she's on fire, she can beat anyone. This is evidenced by her five-time Grand Slam semifinalist status, with the potential to break through that barrier once. She aims to do it for the second time, leveraging the confidence gained from surviving tough battles like the ones against Ruse, Rybakina, and Svitolina. She has accumulated significant fatigue, but the night conditions in Melbourne favor her ability for acceleration and direct tennis.

Tactical keys and head-to-head between Swiatek and Keys

They have faced each other 5 times, with Iga holding a 4-1 favorable record. Their last two encounters, both last year, ended in very comfortable victories for the Pole, who was only surprised by Madison's tennis in Cincinnati 2022. Swiatek's tactical intelligence is a massive weapon against Keys' relentless search for winners every time she steps on the court.

In that regard, Keys' chances of surprising depend on precise execution in all her shots; she has no room or ability to come up with new strategies, needing to relentlessly attack and aim for quick points, resolving rallies in a few shots. If she has an inspired day, she can dream of victory, maneuvering on that fine line between winners and unforced errors that will determine her success. She must not allow Swiatek to dictate the pace or dominate from the baseline.

- Predictions for the 2025 Australian Open women's semifinals

In conclusion, both Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are favorites, with Paula Badosa seemingly having more potential to surprise Sabalenka than Madison Keys does against the Pole. Nothing is certain, but the tennis world dreams of witnessing a new chapter in the intense rivalry between Aryna and Iga, which in this 2025 Australian Open, carries the extra incentive of determining who leaves Melbourne as the world number 1.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis de las semifinales femeninas del Open de Australia 2025: Sabalenka y Swiatek, favoritas