Analysis of the men's semifinals of the Australian Open 2025: Sinner defends the throne

Two steps away from glory, Jannik is two levels away from defending his crown. First, he faces the renewed Shelton; on the other side, Zverev and Djokovic will resolve a battle of titans.

Carlos Navarro | 22 Jan 2025 | 22.01
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Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev will face off in a big semifinal. Source: Getty
Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev will face off in a big semifinal. Source: Getty

The semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open are just hours away, and the tennis world is holding its breath in anticipation of the great matches to come. Almost untouchable favorites, hungry revelations, historic and recent contenders will gather next Friday to determine who will reach the final of the first Grand Slam of the year. In the top half of the draw, Jannik Sinner puts his strong favoritism to the test against Ben Shelton; in the bottom half, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev face off again in what is expected to be an evenly matched game. Who will secure their spot for the title match?

JANNIK SINNER (1) vs BEN SHELTON (21)

The American is one of the few players capable of defeating Sinner in the last 15 months. He achieved it in Shanghai, joining an exclusive club full of great champions. However, since that victory, Ben's growth curve has been slower than some predicted, struggling to find his transitional game and facing early defeats almost every week in 2024.

His year has started in the best possible way, taking advantage of the opportunities presented in his quadrant and strengthening his weapons (a serve that works wonders in Australia and a left-handed-effect forehand that torments anyone). However, these advantages will find their match in Sinner's backhand, who showed against Miñaur that physical problems seem to be a thing of the past. The Italian once again instilled fear, delivering an almost flawless game against an opponent who adapted perfectly to his style of play.

Jannik's ability to defend like a cat on its back, transition to attack through parallel shots, and play with depth were strong incentives to place him as the top candidate for the title. To beat him, Shelton will have to maintain an excellent level with the serve +1 for more than three hours, a titanic task that very few have been able to accomplish. However, the American has plenty of confidence and charisma to at least offer a tremendous show with the hope that Sinner doesn't switch to wall mode.

ODDS: Sinner 75% - 25% Shelton

NOVAK DJOKOVIC (7) vs ALEXANDER ZVEREV (2)

The first match on Friday will be a titanic battle between two players who know each other well. Nole leads the head-to-head 8-4, although they have only faced each other once in the last three seasons. They do have a previous encounter at the Rod Laver, with Djokovic narrowly winning in 2021, a year in which he also entered the match with a physical issue (that edition, an abdominal tear).

At 37 years old, it is a fact that Djokovic's motivation has returned to very high levels. This hunger makes him a contender for everything; not to mention, of course, his experience and domination on a court where he has claimed the title 10 times. He faces a significant challenge in front of him, in Alexander Zverev, who perhaps arrives at the peak of his career, exuding a tremendous sense of control even on days when his tennis is not at its best, becoming strong in crucial moments despite not having his best weapons.

The German must ensure that his serve prevails like never before, generating many free points, a weakness highlighted in Alcaraz's game a couple of days ago; his backhand will not suffer as much in direct exchanges, denying Djokovic dominance in long points. It will be a war of power where perhaps Novak will target more towards Zverev's forehand, a shot that could self-destruct if confidence wavers and the scenario is significant. Despite his physical issues, perhaps that will be the most critical factor in the preview: that mentally, Sascha does not seem as robust as Novak, and the crucial moments, we believe, should lean towards the Serbian. Nevertheless, the challenge does not seem to be easy by any means.

ODDS: Djokovic 55% - 45% Zverev

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis de las semifinales masculinas del Open de Australia 2025: Sinner defiende el trono