ATP Beijing 2024. Analysis of the final: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

The Asian tour couldn't have asked for anything better than a match like this. Last week, we had some interesting movements within the circuit, but a final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz represents a higher level, surely the highest we can aspire to right now. We will have it this Wednesday at the ATP 500 in Beijing, a major outcome between the two best rackets in the world, as their results this season indicate and as the ranking will show in the next few days. Fans celebrate that this rivalry continues to add new chapters, regardless of who lifts the title in China, although I can already tell you that the protagonists care a lot about who takes the champion's seat.

This will be the third time they meet in 2024, perhaps not so many considering the consistency both have shown since the beginning of the season. They faced each other in Indian Wells (won by Carlos) and didn't meet again until Roland Garros (also won by Carlos), so a couple of tours later, we will once again savor this rivalry destined to dominate Sunday afternoons for the next 15 years... although this time it falls on a Wednesday. After a summer filled with great emotions and successes for both, it was only fair that their paths crossed again in this final stretch to determine who has managed their energies better in an incredibly demanding calendar. However, judging by their performances in the tournament, exhaustion does not seem to affect them.

Sinner started with doubts, needing comebacks against Jarry and Safiullin, turning around an adverse first set and gaining strength when it mattered. Once he found his rhythm, Lehecka and Yunchaokete could only follow his lead until the Italian decided to step up a gear. As for Alcaraz, it's safe to say he is having the best tournament of his career in Asian territory, with four consecutive wins without dropping a set and displaying an extraordinary level of tennis, nearly flawless and with an energy as if it were January. Perricard, Griekspoor, Khachanov, and Medvedev tried, but they were met with a resounding defeat facing a supreme version of the Murcian player.

SECOND FINAL BETWEEN THE TWO

Eleventh direct encounter between them if we count the one in 2019, a legendary match at the Juan Carlos Ferrero Academy that doesn't count as an official match in their records, but we like to always mention it. Hence, the Spanish player leads the head-to-head 6-4, with an interesting detail in the narrative: since that first match, the pattern has been a mathematical split of two wins each. In pairs, that's how they have built this rivalry, which, following pure algorithmic logic, suggests that both this match and the next one should favor the Italian. Beyond superstitions, it's important to note that this is only the second time they face off in a final, with Jannik having won the first in Umag 2022 (6-7, 6-1, 6-1).

Regarding the rankings, there is nothing at stake as both are fully aware of their positions at the end of the tournament: Sinner will remain No. 1, and Alcaraz will regain No. 2. In terms of the Race, not even a victory for the Spanish player would disrupt his rival significantly, as there would still be a gap of nearly 3,000 points, making it one less headache going into tomorrow. However, we all know how pivotal these duels are in setting a trend; that somewhat more painful triumph, not so much due to the round or the location, but because of who you have on the opposite side of the net. Sure, they may be great friends off the court, but tomorrow at 11:00, they will step onto the court with a fierce determination not to lose.

Looking at the statistics, Jannik is aiming for his 17th professional title, the seventh of an immaculate season. With a streak of 15-0 after a magical summer, the Italian hasn't lost a match since Montreal. However, what might motivate him the most is the opportunity to defend his crown in Beijing, something he achieved only once in his career when he secured back-to-back victories in Sofia (2020-2021). For Carlos, it would mean his 16th title, the fourth of the year, and the first in the Asian continent. Moreover, he would become the second Spaniard in history to be crowned champion in Beijing, following in the footsteps of Rafa Nadal in 2005 and 2017. With a remarkable record against top 5 players in 2024 (7-1), the Murcian player aims to boost his confidence with a victory that would send him to Shanghai with great momentum, confirming how beneficial competing in the Davis Cup and the Laver Cup has been for him in recent weeks.

Is there a favorite for this final? It's impossible to choose one objectively. Alcaraz is in better form, but we know that this surface might slightly favor Sinner. In such a closely contested rivalry, on a medium-paced court where both can comfortably present their arguments, it would be normal to toss a coin and have the outcome decided by the smallest of details. From that saved break point to that missed double fault, passing through that backhand that barely misses the line by a hair's breadth. In this context, my gut feeling is that Carlitos has less to lose than Jannik, which might lead him to compete a bit more freely and to focus on enjoying the game. And when these two factors come together? We'll find out tomorrow.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ATP Pekín 2024. Análisis de la final: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz