The keys to the battle between Sinner and Zverev for the number 1 spot by the end of the year

Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are two men with the same destiny from now until the end of the year: to finish 2026 as the number 1 in the world. We review each of their calendars, the current ranking differences, and who has a better chance of achieving this.

Determining who finishes a season as the best tennis player in the world is always one of the most important questions to resolve in the ATP circuit, and with two months left in the season, the battle between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev is thrilling. 

The Italian remains at the top of the ATP ranking, but Sascha now leads the ATP Race, holding a substantial advantage that could become irretrievable for Sinner if he does not compete in the Asian tour. It is worth noting that we will focus on this second ranking as it reflects performances in the current season and will therefore determine who finishes as number 1 in the world. Currently, Zverev is ahead of Sinner on that list, with a gap of 700 points between them.

Regardless of this, there could be a change at the top of the ATP ranking due to the many points Sinner is defending until the end of the year (3,550 points) compared to Zverev (1,080 points). However, the aim of this article is to try to discern what the showdown between the two players will look like as they aim to end the year as the best in the world.

Sinner and Zverev's Calendar; Points at Stake

ATP Beijing, from September 30 to October 6: 500 points

ATP Shanghai, from October 7 to October 18: 1,000 points

ATP Vienna, from October 26 to November 1: 500 points

ATP Paris, from November 2 to November 8: 1,000 points

ATP Finals, from November 15 to November 22: 1,500 points

Considering that the difference between them is 700 points and that a staggering 4,500 points are still up for grabs, Sinner's overtaking is quite feasible, but it would complicate significantly if he does not earn anything during the Asian tour and Zverev performs well, potentially arriving in Vienna with an almost insurmountable distance.

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Jannik Sinner and the Big Unknown of the Asian Tour

The Italian hopes to finish for the second time in his career as the number 1 in the world. This would make him the 12th player of all time to finish more than one year at the top of the ranking, matching, among others, his close rival Alcaraz. 

In any case, the Italian will not have it easy to achieve this, as his chances hinge on competing at full capacity during the Asian tour. Rumors from Italy suggest that his knee is still not in perfect shape and he could withdraw from the tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai. If that were the case, it would be virtually impossible for him to rise to number 1 since he would not depend on himself, but on several misfortunes for Sascha.

Alexander Zverev, the Great Objective Closer Than Ever

There would be no better way to conclude a historic season for Sascha than to rise as the number 1 in the world. He has been the best tennis player of the year in Grand Slams, and if he manages to perform well in the upcoming events, he would be very close not just to spending a week as number 1, but to finishing the year in that position.

His performance in this year's Masters 1000 has not been excellent, but once he has shed the pressure of winning a Grand Slam and gained such great confidence, he can be very difficult to stop. He has come close to being number 1 on other occasions and felt some vertigo, but now he is in a very different context in his career and has broken through a significant glass ceiling.

When Could Zverev Become Number 1 in the ATP Ranking?

Aside from the ATP Race and the battle to end the year at the top, it is worth looking at the possible scenarios that may unfold week by week in the ATP ranking and could propel Zverev to number 1. If Sinner does not play the Asian tour, he would lose 550 points from the 1,370 points he currently leads over Zverev. 

The German would have room for improvement in those two tournaments, where he will only defend 150 points. Thus, if he were to win both and Sinner did not play, he would conquer the top of the ranking and face the final stretch of the season in that privileged position.

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Points to Defend by Sinner and Zverev for the Remainder of the Season

Jannik Sinner

• Beijing: 500 points

• Shanghai: 50 points

• Vienna: 500 points

• Paris: 1,000 points

• ATP Finals: 1,500 points

TOTAL: 3,550 points

• Alexander Zverev

• Beijing: 100 points

• Shanghai: 50 points

• Vienna: 330 points

• Paris: 400 points

• ATP Finals: 200 points

TOTAL: 1,080 points

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las claves de la lucha entre Sinner y Zverev por el número 1 a final de año