Can Tommy Paul surprise Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open?

Carlos Alcaraz will face his toughest challenge tomorrow in the US Open 2026. Opposite him is a familiar face on the circuit and to the world number three, one of the first to measure the distances perfectly and surprise the first version of the player from El Palmar in the elite. Tommy Paul represents a substantial increase in level in the last Grand Slam of the year, a start that perfectly meets the demands of a second week of a Major... and he will want to find himself with options in a match that promises to be high voltage.

If there is one thing about Alcaraz vs Paul, it’s that they never disappoint. Whether it’s for stretches of exquisite tennis (the best example being the quarterfinal match at Wimbledon 2024, where the American showcased tennis for an hour and a half, but Carlos made a magnificent comeback, improving as the match progressed; also the duel from the Olympics, which, despite finishing in two sets, witnessed a high level from both racquets) or for the drama and tension surrounding them (the two losses the Murcian suffered against Tommy came in long, tight matches with multiple twists), when the Spaniard and the American meet on a tennis court, the entry is worth its weight in gold. The circumstances have changed in the lead-up to tomorrow’s match in the US Open 2026... but expect, as always, fireworks.

Tommy Paul speaks ahead of facing Alcaraz at the US Open.

🗣️ “It’s crazy to play against Carlos again. I’d say he’s the player I’ve faced the most on the circuit”

🗣️ “We’ve had great battles, but he’s also given me some beatings. I’m going to give it my all… pic.twitter.com/SGOu1jQPW1

— José Morón (@jmgmoron) September 4, 2026

What must Tommy Paul do to defeat Carlos Alcaraz?

The remarkable version displayed by the Murcian after four and a half months off the courts has put all title contenders on alert. The boss has arrived to save the circuit from the supposed instability many attribute to it... although there are still doubts and uncertainties regarding his physical condition once the hours on the court accumulate. The first racquet to serve as a true litmus test can undoubtedly be someone who already knows what it’s like to beat Carlos... and also knows how to play against him.

However, Paul is also not coming off his best season; he has suffered unexpected early losses, rarely has he been seen in the latter stages of major tournaments, and his tennis has lost a bit of the spark and improvisation it always had. If there is a match that can restore your confidence, it’s his recent victory, taking revenge on Alexander Bublik (he lost to him in a thrilling night match at Arthur Ashe last year) with a comeback that leaves him in a privileged position before facing Carlitos.

This confidence and boost in morale will be two key arguments to double down the bet. Here lie Tommy’s possibilities: being even more aggressive and eager than usual (which is already a feature he exhibits when facing Carlos). Two shots seem crucial: the return and the solidity and ability to vary with his forehand.

Against an Alcaraz who has not yet fully found his serving rhythm, the American can exploit one of his greatest virtues. He can... and must do it: his agility allows him to hit the return almost always from a good position, and his bombs to the feet (especially to the Murcian’s backhand) have been very successful in the past. A couple of mistakes should not diminish him: giving very little rhythm to the Murcian, teasing him with quick bounces, can lead to a day where, as happened against Wu, he fails to find the feel with his forehand.

Here lies the second point, perhaps the most important. With the backhand secured as his best shot in his repertoire, Tommy must find another stronghold in the forehand to create wonders. There is one shot that can be fundamental: the cross-court forehand, with two ways to take control of the baseline. First, when Carlos pressures by playing diagonally with his forehand, using a ball that is slightly higher to reset the point, forcing the Murcian to move over to his backhand and then immediately take the center of the court; on the other hand, Tommy must be able to unleash his shots, playing several flat cross-courts to come to the net and using those angles to keep Carlos constantly guessing.

Coming to the net, creating short angles off the backhand, trying to find the baseline on the first shot after the serve... all must be part of a master plan that Paul can execute, although there is a significant uncertainty hanging over his figure. Would he be able to maintain that level of fluidity and aggression for over two hours of play? At Wimbledon, his stamina lasted for a set and a half... and Alcaraz is a player who, once he changes the course of the match, does not forgive: Faria saw it in the second round, and so did Tommy on other occasions.

This has been Paul’s historical problem in his recent duels against the Murcian: he has never been able to maintain that state of grace beyond two hours. Slams give Alcaraz enough time to operate, play with margins, stay consistent, and eventually extinguish the stray bursts of inspiration from the American. Finding an effective solution for managing his energy will be the great unknown that can tip the balance for Paul: the difficulty of the task, no matter how equipped he is to achieve it, seems enormous. Will he succeed? Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

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