Analysis of the draw at the Cincinnati Masters 1000: Jódar on the path of Zverev and Djokovic

While the champion of the Masters 1000 in Canada is still unknown, the Cincinnati tournament looms on the horizon as the last major event before the US Open. Without the presence of the last champion, Carlos Alcaraz, and the runner-up, Jannik Sinner, both Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic have a golden opportunity. There is also the possibility that the surprises from Montreal may strike once again.

Although most tennis players will have an eye on the US Open, which begins on August 30, the Cincinnati tournament is always seen as the perfect event to gain the necessary momentum before arriving in New York. Anything can happen in the fortnight in Ohio.

Playing out the draw ✍️#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/nkRP5gHeqn

— Cincinnati Open (@CincyTennis) August 11, 2026

1st Quarter: Zverev will have a smooth path to the quarterfinals, where he would expect Jódar or Cobolli

The top-seeded player and title contender does not want any surprises like in his debut in Montreal. Therefore, he will have to work hard right from the start of his journey. He would begin against Cameron Norrie or the promising Dino Prizmic, while in the third round, he would face a tougher challenge against Terence Atmane or Tomás Martín Etchverry.

It would be in the round of 16 where he could face two possible powerhouses like Hubert Hurkacz and Valentin Vacherot, although both arrive in poor form. If he reaches the quarterfinals, the real battle would begin, as he would be expecting either Rafa Jódar, whom he already defeated at Roland Garros but whose level is higher on hard courts, or Flavio Cobolli, whom he also defeated in the Paris final. As if that wasn't enough, in a hypothetical semifinal, his rival could be Novak Djokovic. Zverev's road will go from less to more if he wants to lift the title.

Before reaching the quarterfinals, Jódar would debut against Denis Shapovalov or Adrian Mannarino, followed by Alejandro Tabilo or Jan Lennard Struff and in the round of 16 could face Cobolli or Blockx.

In his quadrant appears the aforementioned Flavio Cobolli, who has always shown his best level on clay and also on grass, has a great opportunity to show his consistency on outdoor hard courts, a surface that sometimes eludes him. He would debut against Miomir Kecmanovic or Ugo Carabelli, but it would be in the third round where he could face Alexander Blockx or Mariano Navone. While in the round of 16, the challenge would be maximum with the already mentioned Jódar.

2nd Quarter: Djokovic will be able to gain momentum, while De Miñaur will have to sweat

Novak Djokovic, a three-time champion in Cincinnati, will return to the court after his semifinals at Wimbledon, aiming to arrive in the best possible shape for the US Open. However, he could have a tough debut against Thiago Tirante, who has shown great form in Canada. In the third round, he could face either Jack Draper, who received a wildcard, or Martín Landaluce, who has struggled to find his rhythm on this hard court swing.

In the round of 16, there is the name of Luciano Darderi, who reached the quarterfinals in Montreal, or the always tricky yet unpredictable Jakub Mensik. It would be in the quarterfinals where he could battle against two tough players like Alex de Miñaur or Arthur Fils. In the semifinals, he could face formidable rivals like Alexander Zverev or Rafa Jódar.

Alex de Miñaur is not in his best form but can gain confidence in his debut against a qualifying player or Vit Kopriva. However, in the third round, he could face Wimbledon sensation Arthur Fery. In the round of 16, his current state of tennis would be assessed in a potential match against Arthur Fils or Jiri Lehecka.

3rd Quarter: Fritz faces a golden opportunity; Medvedev eager to make a statement

Taylor Fritz is also one of the main favorites. With neither Zverev nor Djokovic on his side of the draw, and with the great level he shows on these surfaces, the American will seek his second Masters 1000 title. First, he would debut against the consistently tough Alex Michelsen or Jesper de Jong. In the third round, his opponent could be Dani Mérida, assuming he wins his debut against Marin Cilic and then against Zizou Bergs. It would be a great moment to assess the Spaniard’s condition against a formidable opponent like Fritz.

If he defeats the Spaniard, the round of 16 would be against Joao Fonseca or Casper Ruud, both of whom have faced each other in Canada, but both are arriving with low confidence and a lot of inconsistency. By the quarterfinals, his potential opponent would be Daniil Medvedev or one of the surprises from Montreal, Brandon Nakashima.

Medvedev, the ‘specialist’ on hard courts, wants to showcase the great form he displayed in Indian Wells, where he reached the final. The Russian aims to return to being a formidable player on cement, but for this, he must gain consistency. He could debut against Miomir Kecmanovic, while in the third round he would face Nakashima, who is on a roll, or the always aggressive Karen Khachanov. In the round of 16, his compatriot Andrey Rublev would be the next hurdle, while in the quarterfinals, Taylor Fritz would be his primary threat.

4th Quarter: Shelton will have a generous draw and Auger - Aliassime will be tested from the start

Ben Shelton, who is still alive in the Masters 1000 in Canada, is also among the candidates for the Ohio crown. It is on this surface where he shows his best tennis, and with the significant absences, he can make the leap that is much anticipated. He would debut against a qualifying player or his compatriot Jenson Brooksby. In the third round, he would expect Ignacio Buse, while his potential rivals in the round of 16 would be Ugo Humbert or Lorenzo Musetti. In the quarterfinals, he would have a high-stakes duel against Félix Auger Aliassime or Learner Tien.

In the case of the Canadian, he arrives after changing coaches and pulling out at the last minute in Montreal. But he will need to be focused from the outset, as he will debut against Stefanos Tsitsipas or Vincent Royer, while in the third round, his opponents could be the big server Arthur Rinderknech or Juan Manuel Cerúndolo. If they advance, in the round of 16 he would have to battle against Frances Tiafoe, who always thrives in these tournaments, Grigor Dimitrov, who seeks to confirm his great feelings shown on grass, or the always tactical Learner Tien.

These are the possible paths of the main title favorites in the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, which always leads to surprises, as is currently being experienced in Canada. Will there be a fourth title for Novak Djokovic? Will we have a new winner? We will find out on August 23.

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This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del cuadro en el Masters 1000 de Cincinnati: Jódar, por el camino de Zverev y Djokovic