Can Jódar upset Zverev in the Roland Garros quarterfinals?

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🎾 Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev

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19 years old and Rafael Jódar now faces unimaginable challenges in record time. The boy from Leganés, who just 12 months ago watched the final in Paris from his sofa in Madrid after an extraordinary season in American college tennis, will now be the undisputed protagonist in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros 2026 against the one hailed by all as the top favorite for the title: Alexander Zverev. A duel with a multitude of narratives, rich dynamics; a litmus test for the German and an exciting opportunity for the Spaniard.

The nerves are expected to be on the German's side. After a relatively smooth first week of competition where he barely dropped a set, the curves begin for the German, who must take the step forward that could lead him to conquer his first Grand Slam. On the other hand, the extraordinary aspect of the situation could be a double-edged sword for Jódar: a newcomer to a stage as vast as Chatrier, ideal stage fright could make an appearance and not be a surprise... but once overcome, it is impossible not to approach this match with the feeling that there is absolutely nothing to lose, that the objectives have been more than fulfilled, and that this is just the first of many appearances in the final rounds of Majors. From that absolute freedom, and against a player who feels the "now or never" like a target on his back... why not enjoy?

The keys to the great match between Jódar and Zverev: this is how the Madrilenian could defeat Sascha

In terms of tennis, envisioning victory for the player from Leganés is by no means a pipe dream. The clear favorite is Zverev, who is also showing a high level in Paris, maintaining his good percentages with the first serve and being a solid rock on his backhand side. However, there are no surprising elements in his performances: he is the usual Sascha who excels against lower-ranked players, unable to find flaws in his game... but who may show passivity in crucial moments of important matches.

If there's one thing Rafa has shown since his rapid rise to the elite, it's that he doesn't falter under pressure when the match gets tense. To reach that point of equality, to find 5-5 tiebreaks in each set, Jódar must elevate the level he has displayed in his initial matches. Perhaps with fatigue in his legs after an arduous clay court season, the Madrilenian is less explosive in his combinations from the baseline, struggling to find his inverted forehand and parallel shots with the same ease as in, for instance, Barcelona or Madrid... but above all, he will seek to rescue a fundamental aspect of his game to face Zverev.

That area is undoubtedly the return. A significant part of the victory hinges on the Spaniard's ability to unsettle the German on his initial shot, to make him feel insecure even when he's serving, as was always the case in each of his victories over Carlos Alcaraz. Two key points: neutralizing a high percentage of first serves, even if it only means making him hit one more ball... and, above all, regaining the hallmark of his game: the aggressiveness on second serves, aiming at Zverev's feet (and, ideally, the right side) to then dominate from the center of the court.

Alexander heavily relies on his confidence and assurance to calmly advance in his service games, a reality that crumbles against world-class returners like Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner. Rafa, one of the most aggressive returners on the circuit in recent months, has the perfect key here to unlock the puzzle: deep returns that allow him to step in with his inverted forehand and avoid Sascha's backhand, shots that help him control the center of the court, preventing the German from hitting all the crosscourt backhands he'd like.

On the other hand, Zverev will seek and require the opposite: confining Jódar to the backhand diagonals, using depth to push the Madrilenian behind, denying him the chance to change the pace and, of course, being far superior in the serve/return battle. A high percentage of first serves in would put him in the ideal takeoff position for victory, allowing him to dictate that cruising rhythm he seeks in his matches, approaching with greater ease service games where the security and margin of his backhand could frustrate Jódar. From the baseline, his strategy shouldn't differ too much from what Carreño found in the first two sets... however, his forehand, when short and centered balls arrive, must be a powerful weapon inflicting real damage; otherwise, Rafa could find easy counterattacks and transition from defense to offense with his forehand.

In essence, an ideal combination of strong first serves and a lot of backhand-to-backhand exchanges would bring Sascha closer to victory... but finding the remedy with deep returns and being more aggressive than on previous days, knowing that there's nothing to lose, are the directives for Jódar to have a chance at scripting a favorable match. Considering their history and hierarchy, the distances are much closer than their Slam records indicate. The baptism of fire for Jódar and the realization that he's already ready for big dreams or the sign that it is Zverev's moment: what will we witness in Chatrier? Get your popcorn ready and enjoy the evening.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Puede Jódar tumbar a Zverev en cuartos de Roland Garros?