Analysis of the women's draw at Mutua Madrid Open 2026: Sabalenka and Swiatek could meet in the semifinals

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The best female players in the world already know their roadmap in the women's draw of the Mutua Madrid Open 2026, guaranteeing a spectacle. Let's review what we can expect from the tournament once the final draw has been made, analyzing the potential paths of the favorites and paying special attention to what awaits Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Iga Swiatek.

One of the major events on the WTA calendar is here. The Magic Box is opening its doors to the top stars of women's tennis, led by Aryna Sabalenka who will aim to defend the title she won last year, but fully aware of the strong and numerous competition she will face, with Elena Rybakina being the main stronghold of that resistance. It's worth dissecting in depth how the Mutua Madrid Open 2026 draw shapes up and the potential paths the strong title contenders will have.

Here is the women's draw of the Mutua Madrid Open 2026 after the draw

1st Quarter

She is the top title favorite, and that status remains unchanged after the draw. She will debut against a Boisson who hasn't competed in six months or against a Stearns lacking confidence. The potential opponents she might face in the third round do not seem too worrisome for the Belarusian, with Cristian and Uchiyama being players lacking the necessary power and presence to cause an upset at that level.

There could be hostilities as early as the round of 16, provided Osaka finds her best form, in a section of the draw where Bouzkova and Osorio will be her main opposition. Regarding the potential opponent for the world number 1 in the quarterfinals, Jasmine Paolini, the truth is that the Italian has not been performing at the highest level for a long time and could face serious difficulties reaching that stage. Bencic or Shnaider could prove to be too tough opponents for her. Special mention to the duel between the young Spanish player Kaitlin Quevedo and Venus, promising strong emotions.

2nd Quarter

Many dream of seeing a semifinal clash between Sabalenka and Swiatek, but the Polish player will have to work very hard to reach that stage, especially considering the lack of confidence she carries. Starting against Kasatkina might sound challenging, but the Australian-born player comes with very little rhythm. Ann Li may not be too troubling as a potential opponent in the third round, but the competition intensifies in the round of 16 with Leylah Fernandez, Badosa, and Jovic as strong candidates to advance from that zone.

It will be interesting to see if Svitolina can once again show her good chemistry with this tournament. She will have two initial rounds where she shouldn't face much trouble, but in a potential round of 16, facing Andreeva could be a significant obstacle given the high level of play the young Russian has displayed recently.

3rd Quarter

Seeing a quarterfinal clash between the two American players won't be easy, considering the high-quality rivals each one has on their path. Pegula's debut won't be straightforward, as Townsend and Boulter are experienced players with talent who, on a good day, can defeat anyone. Putintseva and Kostyuk have all the elements to cause an upset in the third round against Jessica, while in the round of 16, both Mboko and Tauson would be tough opponents, whose tennis could benefit from the altitude of Madrid.

As for Gauff's journey, it's important to note the number of high-level players concentrated in her section, even though they are not seeded. Sakkari, Samsonova, and Gibson could significantly impact a draw where Noskova is expected to be Gauff's potential opponent in the round of 16, with Cirstea posing a potential threat in the third round, although her physical issues in the last week in Rouen may hinder her.

4th Quarter

There are high expectations to see what the current standout player, Elena Rybakina, is capable of. The Kazakh is already the best player this season and it seems her path in Madrid won't be interrupted in the early stages. Zheng might sound threatening by name but hasn't competed regularly for a while, and it seems quite improbable she could showcase her best level, which she would need to cause an upset of this magnitude.

Looking to the round of 16, Rybakina will need to be very careful. Opponents like Keys or Ostapenko are entirely unpredictable, playing an all-or-nothing style, so if they are on form and manage to seize the initiative from the world number 2, they could potentially surprise her. The standout contender in this quarter, behind Rybakina, is Amanda Anisimova, who has high-caliber names in her path, such as Alexandrova, Mertens, or Eala. The Filipino player wants to showcase her full potential again, alongside Bucsa who could be the opponent for the American in the third round.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del cuadro femenino en Mutua Madrid Open 2026: Sabalenka y Swiatek pueden cruzarse en semifinales