Rybakina threatens Sabalenka in Miami: this is how she could get closer in a tournament with various obstacles

The two most important finals in the women's tennis calendar in 2026 have been marked by the seal of Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Both are leading an intense rivalry with closely contested matches, similar styles, and a silent tension that promises to take over the major events of the circuit. The Belarusian dominates the 2026 season with an iron fist, holding two titles and reaching one final in three tournaments... but if there's anyone at the moment who can challenge her (even surpass her on the big stage), it's the Kazakh.

With this scenario, they arrive at the Miami Open 2026, which stands out for one peculiarity: they cannot meet again in a new final. With the ranking changes not taking effect until this past Monday, and with the event draw carried out yesterday, Rybakina still started from the third spot in the draw, and luck has placed her in the same bracket as Aryna, which could lead to a fratricidal clash at an earlier stage than we've become accustomed to in 2026.

However, reaching that point will not be easy for either of them, facing a path full of potential upsets, especially for Elena, who will also test her ability to react after an extremely demanding week in the desert. Adapting to the courts of the Florida tournament, with a much lower ball bounce and a bit more speed, will pose a challenge that they should address well (it is a surface that ultimately suits their playing styles very well), but it entails some difficulty due to the short adaptation time and the need to switch gears quickly.

Sabalenka, the top favorite in a draw that gives her some leeway to warm up

Having surpassed the 11,000 points mark in the WTA rankings and after clinching her first title at Indian Wells, it's fair to say that Sabalenka is experiencing the sweetest moment of her career. With impeccable calendar management (she chose to skip the Middle East tournament circuit, allowing her to arrive rested and fresh to the American tour), exposing the heavy load of the February month in the women's circuit, the Belarusian is the top favorite in every tournament she enters, showcasing a consistency that sends shivers and now arrives at a tournament where, to make matters even better, she dominated last year.

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This same fact could, of course, be a double-edged sword: she defends 1000 points from her 2025 title, where she did not drop a single set. A strong performance by Rybakina, who didn't even participate in 2025, could tighten the world ranking and present a new perspective for the clay season. To avoid this threat and demonstrate that the gap is still considerable, the Belarusian will have to overcome obstacles on a path where she might encounter familiar faces... but has steered clear of big names.

She will debut against the American Ann Li or a player from the qualifying rounds, a smooth start that doesn't present major challenges in the first week. In the third round, Xinyu Wang, Caty McNally, or another player from the qualifiers: the Chinese player, who could be quite dangerous, arrives in Miami with three defeats in her last four matches and a feeling of vulnerability, potentially faltering even before reaching the third round.

The start is perfect, especially after possibly still having the title in mind from the Californian desert. From that point on, and logically, the journey becomes somewhat more challenging: the fourth round could be truly perilous, with the looming presence of Qinwen Zheng seeking to revive past glories or the tennis as erratic as it is devastating of Madison Keys, the Australian Open 2025 champion eager to score another big win after some inconsistent months. In the quarterfinals, the field widens further, but there are players who could show signs of weakness when matched in ball speed against the Belarusian: Elina Svitolina (whom she already surpassed in Australia) and Jasmine Paolini, with the possibility of an inspired performance from Jelena Ostapenko (unlikely, but not impossible).

Rybakina poses a threat in hypothetical semifinals, but it won't be easy to reach that stage

We all await a great duel against the Kazakh in the semifinals, a trilogy to establish this as the new major rivalry in women's tennis. The draw has been somewhat less kind to Elena, who will face tough challenges right from the first round. Janice Tjen, one of the major revelations of 2025 with a disruptive style, constant tempo changes, and a complexity not easy to tackle in such a short transition between tournaments, or Yulia Putintseva, a thorn in the side if given an opportunity: the debut doesn't look easy for Rybakina.

Advancing convincingly would be a definitive statement that no illness or discomfort can derail her great form. In the third round, an old acquaintance: Marta Kostyuk, whom she recently defeated comprehensively in Indian Wells but who will seek revenge, knowing that these matches usually bring out the best in the Ukrainian. In the round of 16, the challenges become truly enticing, but caution is advised: Naomi Osaka, who fell short against Sabalenka in Indian Wells and aims to take a step forward, or Iva Jovic, the circuit's rising star eager to absorb the skills from the best racquets on the tour.

These are weighty, esteemed names with the potential to surprise, leading to challenging quarterfinals. Once again, as with Kostyuk, a racquet emerges that already succumbed to Elena's power: Jessica Pegula, the defending finalist in Florida who is always lurking, waiting for an opportunity to shine against the best. She is the top favorite to reach the quarterfinals in a bracket that also includes interesting names but currently away from their peak form: Ekaterina Alexandrova, Leylah Fernandez, or Emma Raducanu.

In essence, Aryna and Elena arrive in Miami eager to continue their excellent form, solidify a rivalry with legendary undertones, and shake up the top spots in the rankings by establishing a competition where even the world number one position is at stake. Australia and Indian Wells have witnessed two great matches, with Miami aiming to host the finale of a trilogy that seeks to attract more fans to the fast-paced, powerful, and fierce tennis they display every time they step onto the court. Will they succeed? Your thoughts are important to us.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Rybakina amenaza a Sabalenka en Miami: así podría acercarse en un torneo con varios escollos