Analysis of the men's semifinals of the US Open 2025: Alcaraz and Sinner are the favorites

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 4 Sep 2025 | 14.00

Alcaraz, analysis of the US Open 2025 semifinals. Photo: gettyimages

Streaming ATP Madrid live tennis

🎾 Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev

Sign up with Bet365 here
Make your first deposit of at least €5
Go to the “Live” section and watch every match

Watch the match on Bet365

The tennis world dreams of a final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, but two men will try to stand in the way of that fate, causing particular concern about what Novak Djokovic might achieve. No one can underestimate the greatest of all time, so it is worth analyzing in detail what could happen in these semifinals of the US Open 2025.

Intense emotions are on the horizon this Friday, September 5th, at the US Open 2025, with one of those days that elevates this sport and could shape tennis history. Everything seems set for Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to contest what would be their third consecutive Grand Slam final, adding a new chapter to an emerging historic rivalry. Nonetheless, the legendary goal of Novak Djokovic looms large, almost as much as his ability to continue surprising at 38, while Félix Auger-Aliassime emerges as a dark horse.

- Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, the ultimate generational battle

The respect Alcaraz holds for a man he has seen make history since he was a child is immense, having faced some of his toughest defeats against him. Djokovic knows how to trouble Carlos, but time is relentless, and the current context seems very favorable for the Spaniard.

It's worth noting that Carlos Alcaraz's progression this season has been impressive. Much more solid on serve than at the beginning of the year, emotionally stable on the court, reducing his tennis highs and lows significantly, tactically sharper, and brimming with confidence due to his good results. The explosiveness of his shots and movements appears to surpass anything the Serbian can offer.

But Novak Djokovic should never be underestimated. If there's one thing the Serbian has shown throughout his professional career, it is his ability to achieve unexpected successes and overcome seemingly insurmountable barriers. The fact that he, at 38, can reach the semifinals of a Grand Slam, completing the circle in a season where he has done so in all four majors, highlights the historical nature of a still very much alive legend who will seek magical solutions to a seemingly inevitable reality for anyone else.

Tactical keys to the match

The fact that the match will be played during the day with high temperatures likely benefits Alcaraz, whose ball will acquire a special bite bouncing on the court. The Spaniard must aim for a high percentage of first serves, then take the initiative, moving Djokovic around.

His shot power and speed of movement seem superior, so he will have to find margin in his initial shots to enter the court, understanding that he may have to win each point several times but knowing that Djokovic cannot be kept on the defensive for too long. Toughening the match, making it physical, and seeking long exchanges should be the mantra for the Spaniard.

Everything is different for Djokovic, who will need to take many risks, aiming for serve +1, with services to the body and opening up towards Carlos's backhand by the Deuce side, something that caused trouble for the Spaniard in Melbourne. His hopes rely on being markedly better in short exchanges, points lasting no more than four or five shots falling in his favor consistently. From there, relying on intangibles, experience, and trying to disrupt Alcaraz's rhythm, looking for many crosscourt backhands when rallies are established.

Head-to-head between Alcaraz and Djokovic

Novak has won 4 of their last 5 matches. This may be surprising, but the Serbian has managed to figure out Alcaraz, whose defeats in Cincinnati, the Olympics, and the Australian Open this year were some of the lowest points in his career. The Spaniard did prevail in two Wimbledon finals and in that distant precedent in Madrid 2022.

- Jannik Sinner vs Félix Auger-Aliassime, the utopia of achieving perfection

Adjectives fall short to describe what Sinner is accomplishing and how he elevates tennis to a higher level. It seems that the Italian can only be beaten by his particular kryptonite from Murcia, but first, he must confirm his stellar form against an Auger-Aliassime who has made significant strides in this tournament.

The overwhelming superiority displayed by Jannik Sinner for a long time has become even more intense and evident in this tournament, where only Shapovalov managed to take a set off him. His level of tennis seems to have come from the future to break all existing schemes. There are no weaknesses that suggest an unexpected stumble or openings through which a tactical idea could create unease.

As for Félix Auger-Aliassime, one can only applaud the willpower and determination shown by the Canadian in recent years to not falter despite disappointing results and to keep working hard to improve day by day. This attitude has paid off in an event where his aggressive tennis based on the serve and forehand is wreaking havoc. However, what lies ahead seems beyond his control... or not?

Tactical keys to the match

Finding a miracle. That seems to be the simplified plan Auger-Aliassime must hope for if he wants a chance. Once the ball is in play, there's no real possibility for him to trouble Sinner in long exchanges, so he must rely on the dream of having a supernaturally accurate serve and forehand, keeping the score tight and hoping for some tension to arise in the Italian. Shortening points and taking many risks are the only things Félix can consider, competing calmly knowing he has nothing to lose.

Head-to-head between Sinner and Auger-Aliassime

While it's true that the Canadian leads 2-1 in their head-to-head matches, his victories came in 2022 (Madrid and Cincinnati) when Sinner was far from his current form. Their latest encounter happened just weeks ago in Cincinnati when Jannik routed Félix with a humiliating score of 6-2 6-0.

- Predictions for the US Open 2025 semifinals

Logic suggests Sinner will claim a very comfortable 3-0 victory, while Alcaraz should assert his dominance against Djokovic, although dropping a set may not be out of the question. While most analysts agree on this, tennis is unpredictable, and surprises in the semifinals wouldn't be unprecedented, as seen in 2014 when Federer and Djokovic lost to Cilic and Nishikori, respectively.