When can Alcaraz go for the number 1 spot in the ATP ranking?

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The red clay court season has come to an end with a golden finish. The Roland Garros 2025 final was a spectacle for all tennis fans and the general public. Many of us are still processing what happened on that Sunday afternoon. But the tour doesn't stop. After the clay season comes summer, along with the shortest, most challenging, and yet most traditional tour: the grass season culminating in Wimbledon. And then it's back to the North American hard courts with the climax at the US Open.

Despite Carlos Alcaraz's success in Paris and Jannik Sinner's tough defeat, the Italian has extended his lead in the rankings. Alcaraz defending his 2000 points at Roland Garros while Sinner improved his result from last year, reaching the semifinals, has widened the gap. The month of July could see the gap increase further (Carlos defending 2000 points at Wimbledon) before potentially narrowing in August with the possibility of a role reversal (Jannik defends 2000 points at the US Open).

Let's break it down. As of June 10, Sinner leads Alcaraz by 2030 points, and next up for the Spaniard is Queen's, where he only defends 50 points after exiting in the third round last year. Meanwhile, the Italian defends his 500 points as the defending champion in Halle. A strong week for Alcaraz and an early exit for the number one could tighten the gap before Wimbledon.

In July, an opportunity to extend the lead for the Italian

However, when Wimbledon arrives, it will be Sinner's chance to once again widen the gap. Last year, the 23-year-old reached the quarterfinals, meaning he only needs to defend 400 points, while Alcaraz is the reigning champion and must defend his 2000 points. This situation resembles the start of Roland Garros. If Alcaraz fails to win his third Wimbledon title and Sinner either wins his first major on grass or reaches the final, he can significantly impact the rankings once again. The only way for the Spaniard to gain ground during these two weeks is if the Italian has a shock exit without reaching the quarterfinals.

August, a crucial month if the Spaniard aims to reclaim the top spot

The moment for the Murcian to challenge for the number one ranking will come during the North American hard court swing if he successfully defends his Wimbledon title or reaches at least the final. Between the Masters 1000 in Canada and Cincinnati and the US Open, Alcaraz has only 60 points to defend. With no participation in Canada, and early exits in Cincinnati (10) and the US Open (50), there is a golden opportunity for El Palmar's rising star. Additionally, Sinner defends quarterfinals in Canada (200) and titles in Cincinnati (1000) and the US Open (2000), totaling 3200 points. If the Spaniard wins one of the Masters 1000 titles and secures his second US Open victory, he could once again become the world number one, regardless of Sinner's results in Cincinnati and the US Open.

Therefore, if Alcaraz delivers and the calculations work in his favor, he might find himself in a similar position to when he claimed his first Grand Slam title in New York in 2022 and became the youngest number one in history. However, all of this depends on the performances of both players. Perhaps a calculator will be needed or preparations made for the Asian swing.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Cuándo puede optar Alcaraz al número 1 del ranking ATP?