ATP Rome 2025. Analysis of the final, Sinner vs Alcaraz: glory at stake

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Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Number one and two in the world. Two faces of the same generation ready to conquer, to loot, to take it all, to set the pace and become the visible face of tennis in the next decade. Every duel between them generates a unique anticipation, a universe of sensations that take us back to times of epic battles and matches between legends of this sport. For the first time in history, they face each other in a Masters 1000 final: the ATP Roma 2025 will witness a final with multiple and impressive incentives.

The ice man, the perfect machine. Jannik Sinner plays at home and, after three months of suspension, has reformulated certain parameters to return with an even greater dominance than in 2024. The only player on the circuit who has not lost this year... faces, of course, the last one who punished him: the fire of Carlos Alcaraz, the same one who has won their last three face-offs, the prince capable of deactivating, with variations, talent and bursts of absolute effervescence, the adjustments of a machine that in front of him is only -almost- perfect.

GUNS, LINEAR PACE, AND THE QUEST FOR PRECIPITATION

There is a key aspect that underlies every time these two face off: winning the baseline is approaching victory. The one who strikes first strikes double. A maxim that surprises no one in 21st-century tennis, but which becomes a dogma when the two prototypes of evolution share the court. However, if there is a surface that rewards variety and teaches you that there are several shortcuts to victory, that is clay... and there, of course, Jannik Sinner still has more to learn.

Turning Rome into Australia. Making the pace of play similar to what he would experience in Turin. That's where San Candido's chances of winning lie, as he excelled in tennis against Casper Ruud but now faces an opponent with multiple variations to pull him out of his comfort zone. Constantly seeking backhand exchanges crossing, pressuring Carlos on the ad side, and not negotiating the depth as the maximum of his strokes: that pounding rhythm is what brought luck to Jannik in his victories over Carlos, a tactic harder to impose on clay, but by no means impossible for a guy who raises his ceiling with every passing match.

Once Carlos gets boxed in there, the paths to Jannik's triumph are clear. One, that Carlos rushes and seeks to exit the exchange quickly, playing winning shots in difficult situations, confining himself to hitting very narrow parallel backhands (something Novak Djokovic has achieved like no one else). Two, that this pressure forces Carlos to seek variations, but in compromising situations, leaving a short ball for Sinner to exploit decisively and not allow Alcaraz's counterattacks. Forcing Alcaraz to have a stellar performance with his parallel backhand and nullifying the search for variations by the Murcian are clear objectives of an alien who will face the duel with renewed hunger.

HIGH BALLS, TOTAL ARSENAL, FLASHY ATTACKS

If Sinner dominates the baseline through suffocation, Carlos tames it using an arsenal of tricks that many magicians would envy. The truth is that the Murcian has a fantastic archetype to beat Jannik in their last battle on clay, the 2024 Roland Garros semifinals, where he turned the match around in pure clay style: using high balls to make the Italian hit away from his comfort zone, at shoulder height, using crosscourts to repeatedly influence direction changes on clay, changing the pace by combining a few slices and, of course, attacking short balls with his forehand once he has them.

In this sense, if Jannik will want to focus on diagonal backhand exchanges, Alcaraz will seek to turn the match in the other direction, activating his weighted forehand to play crosscourt against the Italian's forehand. While the latter has become an increasingly reliable shot, Jannik's slight discomfort signs at the end of the match against Tommy Paul when moving to that side are too potent to ignore... and, of course, the Paris match reminds us that Sinner is not at all comfortable hitting forehands at shoulder height. Those weighted shots can be an error-generating machine for Sinner.

And, of course, if none of this works, let's not forget that Alcaraz has a magic potion that, for example, he expertly pulled out in the final tiebreak of Beijing, a sixth gear that would be a desperate resource to speed up and make Sinner unable to keep up. Still, order, variations, and aspects like approaching the net or drop shots play in favor of a Carlos who feels like a fish in water on clay... and wants to perpetuate his dominance against his great rival in his natural habitat.

The two heirs to the throne meet again in an unmissable event for every tennis enthusiast. The hunger of the number one in his return with the quest for vindication of a prince wounded in his pride, ice and fire, Italy against Spain, and the circuit's dominance as the backdrop of another chapter of a story that is starting to become unforgettable. Get your popcorn ready because if you blink, you'll miss it. Will it be Sinner or Alcaraz? Tomorrow at 17:00 we will find out.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ATP Roma 2025. Análisis de la final, Sinner vs Alcaraz: la gloria en juego