Analysis of the ATP Montecarlo 2025 Draw: Interesting and challenging opponents for Alcaraz and Djokovic, who would avoid each other until a hypothetical final

Andrés Tomás Rico | 4 Apr 2025 | 18.16

Analysis of the ATP Montecarlo 2025 draw: Interesting and challenging opponents for Alcaraz and Djokovic, who would avoid each other until a hypothetical final. Photo: Getty Images

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The clay court season is here, bringing with it the first major tournament on clay: the Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo. The Principality of Monaco will kick off a two-and-a-half-month period that will culminate in Paris. Many players, such as Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Casper Ruud, are looking to redeem themselves on this surface to improve their performance at the beginning of the year. They will have to face a series of opponents who usually elevate their game on clay.

1st quadrant

Alexander Zverev will once again be the top seed, as he was in Indian Wells and Miami. However, his form on hard courts was far from his Australian level, and he is relying on this clay court season to keep up with Sinner and Alcaraz. Nevertheless, his draw is no walk in the park.

He could face Matteo Berrettini in his opener, a tough opponent. Then, he might encounter either Sebastian Korda or Lorenzo Musetti, with the latter being particularly comfortable on clay. In the quarterfinals, he could potentially face Holger Rune, the 2023 finalist, or Stefanos Tsitsipas, the defending champion.

The Greek might start his title defense against a big server like Mpetshi–Perricard. If he gets through this tough challenge, he may meet Lorenzo Sonego or the aforementioned Holger Rune in the next round, and in the semifinals, just like Zverev, he could face Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov, Daniil Medvedev, or Alex de Minaur.

2nd quadrant

Novak Djokovic returns to clay after winning gold at the Paris Olympics last summer. But his path to success will be challenging if he aims to replicate his previous triumphs and claim his third title in Monte Carlo.

In the early rounds, he may face Stanislas Wawrinka. If he prevails, he would potentially meet Grigor Dimitrov, whom he recently defeated in Miami, or Nicolás Jarry. The quarterfinals could bring Daniil Medvedev, despite his reluctance toward clay courts, Alex de Minaur, or Sebastián Báez, who could be a surprise from that section. In the semifinals, Djokovic would face Zverev, Musetti, Rune, or Tsitsipas. A hypothetical final awaits against Carlos Alcaraz.

3rd quadrant

Here we find Casper Ruud, who, after a very inconsistent start in 2025, is pinning his hopes on clay, where last year he reached the final against Tsitsipas before taking his revenge a week later at the Conde de Godó. The Norwegian could go far in the tournament, although he will have to overcome challenging opponents, albeit less reliable on clay.

He will kick off against Roberto Bautista or Brandon Nakashima, a tough start indeed. His potential round of 16 opponents are Frances Tiafoe or Ugo Humbert. In the quarterfinals, he might face Ben Shelton, who debuts against Alejandro Davidovich, or Jack Draper, the Indian Wells champion. And in the semifinals, he could meet Andrey Rublev, the 2023 champion, Arthur Fils, Auger-Aliassime, or Carlos Alcaraz.

4th quadrant

In the lower half of the draw, Carlos Alcaraz enters the stage. The Spaniard arrives in Monaco after an inconsistent hard court season and a single defeat in Monte Carlo, against Sebastian Korda in 2022. The second seed will have to start strong to avoid surprises like in Miami.

He will face either Fabio Fognini or Fran Cerúndolo in his opener, both tough nuts to crack, especially the Argentine who has shown great form in Indian Wells, where the Spaniard defeated him, and in Miami. If he passes this challenging start, he could meet the unpredictable Auger-Aliassime in the round of 16. In the quarterfinals, his opponents could be Arthur Fils, Tallon Griekspoor, Andrey Rublev, or Gael Monfils. Regardless of his opponent, Alcaraz will have to give his all. In the semifinals, he may face Jack Draper, whom he lost to in the Indian Wells semifinals, Casper Ruud, Frances Tiafoe, or Ben Shelton. And if he navigates through these rounds, each with its challenges, he could potentially reach the final against Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, the defending champion, or Alexander Zverev.

Regardless of his opponents and challenges, Alcaraz will also have to battle himself to raise his level and show that he can excel on clay. He also has the motivation to go far in a tournament where luck has not been on his side, whether due to his solitary defeat or because it was here that his forearm injury began exactly a year ago. So, he has a golden opportunity to shine on the clay courts of Monaco.