Alcaraz, Zverev, and the fight to reach the top-2 at Roland Garros

While Jannik Sinner watches from his particular vantage point anyone who dares to chase him at the top of the ATP rankings, a parallel vibrant battle is unfolding leading up to the next Grand Slam. We are well aware of the importance of having a good ranking for each major tournament, and Roland Garros 2025 will be no exception: being world number #2 instead of #3 could spare you from a treacherous path that names like Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev have experienced in the past Australian Open.

Both the Spaniard and the German are about to engage in a battle that will last several months and extend until the week prior to the second Grand Slam of the year. The objective? Not only to stay one step behind Jannik in the rankings but also to avoid facing him even in a hypothetical final in Paris. A beautiful struggle in which Sascha starts with an advantage at the starting line, but where Carlos has closed the gap thanks to the title he earned in Rotterdam.

ALCARAZ, CLEAR PATH FROM INDIAN WELLS

The one from El Palmar will need to exercise patience if he aims to snatch the second spot from the German. The reason being his outstanding performances in the Californian desert: after conquering Indian Wells last season, it seems challenging to accumulate new points early on. However, his presence in Doha, replacing his unfortunate performance in Rio last year (where he got injured in his debut), could help alleviate the impact of the 1,000 points that will drop from the first Masters 1000 of the year, easing some pressure when defending the title.

The great news for Carlos is that the picture clears up after a month. And it becomes much clearer, too. The elbow injury from the past season provides him with many tournaments where he can score points: he did not attend Barcelona or Rome last year and only defends quarterfinals in both Miami and Madrid. Excluding Monte Carlo (we'll see if he participates this year, given its proximity to the Godó), there are four opportunities where Alcaraz, with a bit of consistency and luck with his physical condition, finds a point oasis leading up to Paris.

ZVEREV, UPS AND DOWNS AND KEY EVENTS

Just like Alcaraz will defend 1,000 points in Indian Wells, Sascha has his own small Tourmalet in the Rome tournament, which still seems distant on the horizon but where he will defend the crown earned last year. Carlos's main goal is to get within a reasonable distance of Sascha before the last event preceding Paris... and the question we naturally ask ourselves is: where can Zverev earn points to make his lead in the Italian capital insurmountable?

The German played more tournaments than Carlos and showed greater consistency, but he has room for improvement in his performances and could 'scratch' points from nearly every event. For starters, his journey begins in the South American tour, where a good showing in Rio (ATP 500) could offset the points earned by Carlos in Doha; the North American hardcourt swing could result in a similar outcome to last year (quarterfinals in Indian Wells, where he was actually defeated by Carlos, and semis in Miami, where he lost to Dimitrov), and the clay tour offers him certain opportunities before Rome.

He will have chances in Monte Carlo and Madrid, where he only defends round of 16 appearances: however, we'll see how the German manages his schedule, signed up for all tournaments while eyeing to be a favorite at home (he will compete in the Munich tournament, which upgrades to an ATP 500 status for the first time, being the main attraction). A balanced calendar in a competition where only a significant title, perhaps, could definitively distance him from Carlos. Who will arrive in Paris as number two? Place your bets.

- POINTS TO DEFEND BEFORE ROLAND GARROS

Carlos Alcaraz: 1500 points

• SF Buenos Aires (100)
• Indian Wells Champion (1000)
• QF Miami Open (200)
• QF Madrid Open (200)

Alexander Zverev: 1950 points

• SF Los Cabos (100)
• QF Indian Wells (200)
• SF Miami (400)
• Monte Carlo Round of 16 (100)
• QF Munich (50)
• Madrid Round of 16 (100)
• Rome Champion (1000)

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