Analysis of Djokovic-Alcaraz: experience against the dream of making history

Jose Morón | 20 Jan 2025 | 14.00

Analysis of Djokovic-Alcaraz: experience against the dream of making history.

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Although one is approaching 38 years old and the other has not yet reached 22, the Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz matchup has become almost a classic in recent years on the men's circuit. It will be the fourth time they face each other in a Grand Slam, starting at the Australian Open. This is a duel with many aspects to extract and analyze, and this new clash between the Serbian and the Spaniard will attract the attention of the entire sports world.

Novak has made headlines due to an incident with an Australian journalist who disrespected him live on air. The Belgrade native has refused to speak with Channel 9 for that reason, and it was news when he declined to chat with Jim Courier after defeating Lehecka in the previous round. Unintentionally, Djokovic has received an extra motivation for the rest of the tournament from these incidents. His detractors have not yet realized that attempting to go against him in that manner only adds fuel to his tank to push beyond his limits.

Thus, if Carlos was expecting to face a highly motivated Novak, not only to defeat him after two consecutive losses in a Slam but also to claim his 25th major title, he will now have to deal with a Djokovic who is ultra-motivated by the received attacks. The Spaniard will have the difficult task of defeating the Serbian in his favorite tournament, where he has won 10 times, and when he arrives in one of his best forms in a long time, considering that the Nole of these past few days, since the Olympics, is the one that offers the most guarantees.

Novak Djokovic's Keys to Victory

Moving on to the tactical and strategic aspect, the Serbian will need to be very precise in how he approaches the match since defeating Alcaraz in a best-of-five sets format, at this stage of his career, is an extremely challenging task. However, if there is someone capable of doing it, no matter how much time passes, that person is Djokovic.

Firstly, the Serbian would be wise to bring out his most aggressive serving game. He needs his service games to be as short as possible to avoid fatigue, considering the plan he will have to execute when returning serve. In this Australian Open, Carlos has been opting to stand close to the baseline when returning. He has shifted from positioning himself about 2.5 meters behind the line to barely a meter away when returning first serves, and moving inside the court by over a meter when facing second serves.

Facing this court positioning, Novak will need to target the lines and predominantly target the open spaces to Alcaraz's right side. In particular, hitting wide shots to Alcaraz's right-hand side, such as the cut serve on the deuce side and the T serve, both with an outward spin on the ad side. While some may consider this tactic risky, aiming at Carlos's right side, given that it's his strongest shot, the truth is that the Murcian has a better backhand return than a forehand, as evidenced in the Cincinnati 2023 final when Nole repeatedly directed the ball to Carlos's right side, causing him to struggle and make errors consistently.

By maintaining a high percentage of first serves in, targeting the lines, Novak would gain dominance in the points to close them in fewer than four exchanges. This way, the physical wear would be minimized, avoiding those endless 15-20 minute games that he faced in his encounters with Alcaraz, which drained him physically both in Wimbledon and in the Olympic final, enabling him to be prepared for what might come over a possible five sets.

Next, when returning, Djokovic should focus on keeping a high percentage of returns in play, neutralizing Alcaraz's newly improved serving weapon and leading Carlos into backhand-to-backhand exchanges where the Spaniard is slightly more vulnerable. Djokovic knows that if he pins Carlos down in that corner of the court, hitting deep shots, he will unsettle Carlos, who feels uncomfortable when points extend in that area. Often, Alcaraz will be forced to attempt a winner or hit a difficult backhand down the line in such situations. It is crucial for Nole that his backhand is well-placed; otherwise, he risks Carlos switching to his forehand and taking control.

If the point plays out in Carlos's favor, moving from backhand to backhand cross-court, Nole should adopt a similar strategy to what he used in their clay court encounters; that is, taking the ball early and adding extra power. Failure to do so will leave Djokovic at the mercy of Carlos's forehand, a shot that is difficult to counter once Carlos finds his rhythm.

Djokovic should not yield ground or hit short balls, as Alcaraz is quick to pounce and close points at the net to suffocate his opponents. By consistently maintaining depth, utilizing backhand shots, engaging in medium-to-long point rallies on returns, and adding aggression when serving, Novak will put immense pressure on Carlos.

Carlos Alcaraz's Keys to Victory

On the other hand, the young Spaniard knows that this Djokovic is the most dangerous version he will encounter in this tournament. With his new serve, Alcaraz cannot hesitate, and the previous four rounds will have been a test for what lies ahead in the tournament. Any uncertainty in his serve will be severely punished by one of the best returners in the history of the sport, if not the best.

It will be crucial for him, therefore, to step onto the court focused and with intensity since Nole understands the importance of the first set for the course of the match. He cannot afford a repeat of last year, where he started off completely disconnected against Zverev. Alcaraz was almost absent in the first two sets, and by the time he wanted to react, it was too late. Against a Novak who will come out fighting from the first minute, this would spell disaster.

The first key is to target Djokovic's second serves. He must be proactive, aiming for depth and creating openings. Alcaraz has displayed this skill superbly in this Australian Open 2025 and this is where he can exploit the vulnerabilities to make a dent in Nole's game. In the match against Lehecka, the Serbian had a last set with a first-serve percentage below 50%. That would be fatal against an aggressive returner like Carlos. Capitalizing on the few opportunities provided will be essential for the Spaniard.

Furthermore, during the points, Alcaraz would benefit from breaking the backhand-to-backhand cross-court pattern to take control of the rally in a forehand-to-forehand battle. Here, the Murcian should leverage his heavier ball and vary directions with down-the-line shots to force Djokovic into lateral movements. His potential success lies in consistently pushing Djokovic in these lateral displacements, an area where Djokovic has recently struggled, to gradually erode his morale over time as the minutes pass.

Changing the pace of the ball is also crucial. At Wimbledon, Alcaraz executed those sliced shots perfectly, which subdued the pace of the ball effectively. Djokovic doesn't appreciate when he has to generate power himself and prefers using the opponent's pace to counter, playing more defensively. In Wimbledon, Alcaraz frustrated him with those sliced shots, and considering that the match will be played at night when the ball tends to bounce lower, employing this tactic during challenging moments, especially when under pressure on his backhand side, could be beneficial for Alcaraz.

Carlos holds a significant advantage in terms of physical fitness. It would be reasonable to assume that if the match extends to four hours, his superior physical condition will prevail over Djokovic's. Therefore, he would prefer a long match, but it should be noted that too many long points, while sounding contradictory, are not in his favor. The majority of points will be played in the 1-4 exchange range, where he needs to be extremely precise in attacking and minimizing errors. Even if he engages in a physically demanding battle, lasting through 4-5 exchanges, moving Djokovic around and making him cover more ground, even if he doesn't take a significant lead on the scoreboard, will play into his hands in the long run.

Video Analysis of Alcaraz-Djokovic

This matchup is a very even 50-50 battle. Regardless of the form of each player, when it comes to Djokovic-Alcaraz, anything can happen. The odds may favor the Spaniard, but we've seen what happens when Nole was underestimated in previous encounters with Carlos. One thing is certain; it will be a magical night of tennis. It's the experience of a player who knows every inch of the Rod Laver Arena up against the dream of making history and becoming the youngest Grand Slam winner. If I were you, I wouldn't miss it. This Tuesday, around 11 a.m. in Spain, 9:00 p.m. in Melbourne.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del Djokovic-Alcaraz: la experiencia contra el sueño de hacer historia