Alcaraz's pending subject for 2025

Jose Morón | 1 Nov 2024 | 13.18

Alcaraz's pending subject for 2025. Photo: Getty.

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It's surprising that Carlos Alcaraz, having won two Grand Slams this year, is closer in the ranking to Alexander Zverev than to Jannik Sinner. In fact, the German could surpass the player from Murcia in the ranking if he reaches the final in Paris. This is explained by Carlitos' lack of consistency in the Masters 1000 tournaments this year, which has undoubtedly been the area he needs to improve on looking ahead to 2025.

Unlike Jannik, who has been super consistent throughout the season, never falling below the quarterfinals in all the tournaments he has played, Alcaraz has been penalized for the significant dips he has had at certain times during the year. While he had probably the highest peak in form across the circuit between the end of May and mid-July, allowing him to win Roland Garros and Wimbledon, apart from those two tournaments, his lack of consistency has hindered him in chasing down his closest rival.

It goes without saying that Alcaraz's season, regardless of what happens in Turin, has been outstanding. Winning two Grand Slams in the same year is an achievement very few reach, and surely he would sign up for winning two majors per season until he retires. Deep down, Carlitos surely knows that to stay at the top of the rankings and continue contending for major titles, he must keep improving and working even harder than when he wasn't yet a serious contender. Moving from outstanding to distinction relies on finding consistency in the Masters 1000 tournaments.

These tournaments, aside from providing a significant amount of points that could help him reach his goal of spending more weeks as number 1, serve as preparation for other major tournaments. Performing well in one of them boosts his confidence for those Grand Slams or, in the case of the Paris tournament, the ATP Finals, the closing event of the season awarding 1500 ranking points.

This was a pending task from last year

In 2023, Carlos won two M1000 tournaments, the same as in 2022. Just like in his breakthrough year, he combined great performances, such as titles in Indian Wells, Miami, or Madrid, with defeats in his opening matches. With his defeat last night in Paris, Alcaraz now has five first-round losses in Masters 1000 tournaments.
In fact, Carlitos has his lowest victory percentage in these tournaments. While he has an 84.5% win rate in Slams, 78% in ATP 500s, and 77% in 250s, in the Masters 1000, he has a 75% win rate. Although this is still an impressive number for the vast majority of the circuit, it's evident that these tournaments are where he has shown his highest potential for improvement, especially considering he has almost an 80% overall winning percentage on the circuit.

Alcaraz's 2024 Masters 1000 Performances

This year, Carlos kicked off his participation in tournaments of this category with an impressive victory in Indian Wells, dominating all his opponents, including Sinner. It's clear that this tournament suits his style of play. This was followed by a quarterfinal defeat in Miami on a night when Dimitrov was in top form. Alcaraz admitted after the loss that he felt lost and that it made him look like a kid.

Due to a forearm injury, the player from Murcia couldn't compete in either the Monte Carlo or Rome tournaments. In the stretch where he could have made a significant difference, he only took part in Madrid, where he was clearly defeated by Rublev in the quarterfinals. Very little can be inferred from that week since he played with discomfort throughout the tournament.

Moving on to the darker phase of his season following the Olympics, Alcaraz skipped Canada to rest and entered Cincinnati without being mentally prepared, as he himself admitted. He had one of his worst evenings against Monfils in his opening match, leaving a defeat that will be remembered for the racket smash, the first one he has left on a tennis court.
In Shanghai, after a brilliant week in Beijing, he was halted in the quarterfinals, once again by an inspired Machac. It was a very similar week, if not identical, to what happened in Miami. Subsequently, he suffered a third-round defeat in Paris, looking very uncomfortable from the start against Humbert. Although he reacted well after a clear loss in the first set, when he tried to mount a comeback, it was already too late.

In total, Alcaraz has played 21 M1000 matches this year, winning 16 and losing six, resulting in a 76.1% victory rate. Compared to 2022 (19-5: 79.1%) and 2023 (23-6: 79.3%), Carlos has experienced a slight setback in these tournaments this year, 2024. This is where he has the most room for improvement in 2025. The fact that he missed two of the Masters 1000 events where he typically performs well due to injury has impacted him. Nevertheless, he acknowledges the need to step up his game in these tournaments to have a shot at ending the year as number 1.

Special Note: Australia and US Open

An observation from his losses this year is that Carlos seemed somewhat disconnected at the beginning of most matches. This is something he has openly acknowledged in press conferences following those defeats. "I'm 20 years old, it's normal for this to happen to me. It doesn't worry me. Nobody's perfect. The good thing is we know what's happening and that it's becoming more sporadic," he mentioned in January after being knocked out in the quarterfinals by Zverev.

He was referring to his match starts. It wasn't the first time this happened nor would it be the last. Perhaps it's a recurring theme in his game. Ultimately, everyone is who they are, and as he himself says, nobody's perfect, especially at his age. This is part of the process and part of who Carlos is. Just as we see Alcaraz reach an unstoppable form peak where he overwhelms his opponents, he also experiences setbacks that lead to more unexpected defeats. That's Carlos, for better or for worse, and the positive aspect is recognizing these patterns to work on them for improvement and minimizing their recurrence. It was evident in Australia against Zverev, where he started off poorly and found himself down 0-2 in less than an hour, a pattern repeated against Van de Zandschulp in New York.

Surely, the 2024 season will be a significant learning curve for Alcaraz. It will help him realize that if he works on these aspects, he will become a formidable player in the future. We mustn't forget he's just 21 years old and despite his youth, he's capable of remarkable performances on the tennis court. Next year, at this point in the season, we'll review his progress to see if student Alcaraz Garfia has made strides in this area that remained somewhat unaddressed this year.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, La asignatura pendiente de Alcaraz para 2025