This is how the battle for the number 1 spot in the ATP Ranking will stand depending on what happens this weekend at Wimbledon

Jose Morón | 11 Jul 2024 | 23.00

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We have reached the men's semifinals of this Wimbledon 2024 with three Top 5 tennis players among the contenders: Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, and Daniil Medvedev. Unlike last year, Jannik Sinner will not be in the fight for a spot in the final in London, leaving the opportunity for Carlitos and Nole to get closer to Jannik, who, despite everything, is guaranteed to finish this week as the world number one.

Sinner, by losing in the quarterfinals, will see 320 points deducted from his total in the ATP Rankings. As a result, he will remain at the top of the world with 9570 points. This sets the stage for the next month, as neither Jannik, nor Nole, nor Carlos will play in tournaments prior to the Olympics, and the event in Paris does not offer ATP points. Therefore, depending on what happens this weekend in Wimbledon, Sinner will have to fiercely defend his number one spot in Canada.

Looking at the Wimbledon semifinals, only Alcaraz or Medvedev can advance to the final from the top half. The Russian has the chance to surpass Carlos if he reaches the final, with various scenarios in the Top 5 based on whether Djokovic wins his match against Lorenzo Musetti or not.

Battle for number 1: How the ATP Ranking Top 5 would look based on the outcome of the Wimbledon 2024 final

With these semifinals, we could have a final between Djokovic and the winner of Alcaraz-Medvedev, or between Musetti and the Russian or Spanish player. With only one winner, Jannik would hope for his compatriot to win, to keep his closest pursuers at bay.

If Novak Djokovic wins the Wimbledon final (with Alcaraz as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Novak Djokovic: 9160
3. Carlos Alcaraz: 7430
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Daniil Medvedev: 6525

If Novak Djokovic wins the Wimbledon final (with Medvedev as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Novak Djokovic: 9160
3. Daniil Medvedev: 7025
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Carlos Alcaraz: 6930

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Wimbledon final (with Djokovic as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Novak Djokovic: 8460
3. Carlos Alcaraz: 8130
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Daniil Medvedev: 6525

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Wimbledon final (with Musetti as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Carlos Alcaraz: 8130
3. Novak Djokovic: 7960
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Daniil Medvedev: 6525

If Daniil Medvedev wins the Wimbledon final (with Djokovic as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Novak Djokovic: 8460
3. Daniil Medvedev: 7725
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Carlos Alcaraz: 6930

If Daniil Medvedev wins the Wimbledon final (with Musetti as finalist):

1. Jannik Sinner: 9570
2. Novak Djokovic: 7960
3. Daniil Medvedev: 7725
4. Alexander Zverev: 7015
5. Carlos Alcaraz: 6930

The worst-case scenario for Sinner would be a Djokovic-Alcaraz final, as both would be very close to him. If the Serbian were to win this tournament, he would be just 410 points behind the Italian, potentially overtaking him in August, depending on the results. If Alcaraz wins, the Spaniard would be 1440 points away from Sinner. Far from being able to surpass him before the US Open, although everything would depend on whether Carlos plays in both Canada and Cincinnati and wins both tournaments, considering Jannik's results as well.

It is worth noting that the Italian defends the 1000 points from last year's victory in Canada, so that week, the one following the Olympics, if Djokovic cannot retain the title there, he could return to number 1 without even playing the tournament, provided he wins at Wimbledon, as he would be very close to the Italian.

The US Open will be decisive for the year-end number 1

Considering that Djokovic defends the 2000 points from last year's championship, as well as the title in Cincinnati, there will be an exciting battle for the number 1 spot among the three players until the end of the year. Nole has the most to defend, having won Cincinnati, the US Open, Paris-Bercy, and ATP Finals, making his task more challenging. The Italian is next in line to defend more points after Wimbledon, with Carlos having had a weaker end to the 2023 season compared to his two rivals, giving him the potential to win more points until the end of the year.

Points to defend by the three from the end of Wimbledon to the end of the year:

Novak Djokovic: 4300
Jannik Sinner: 3370
Carlos Alcaraz: 2180

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Así quedará la lucha por el número 1 del Ranking ATP según lo que pase este fin de semana en Wimbledon

ATP