Djokovic needs a miracle in Paris to reach the ATP Finals
Jan-Lennard Struff's victory tonight in Basel has severely diminished the Serbian's chances of qualifying for the last tournament of the season. Is it impossible for him? No, but it is indeed very difficult.
The fight for the last spots in the ATP Finals in Turin enters its decisive phase with Rafa Jódar and Novak Djokovic as two of the main protagonists. The defeats of both on Thursday leave an open scenario ahead of the Paris Masters 1000, although the situation favors the Madrid player a bit more.
With Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, and Ben Shelton already qualified, there are still tickets at stake, and the battle for a spot promises strong emotions until the very last moment. Daniil Medvedev currently leads the contenders with 3,710 points, closely followed by Flavio Cobolli with 3,680, and Arthur Fils with 3,525. Frances Tiafoe occupies the seventh position with 3,380 points, while Rafa Jódar remains within the top eight with 3,184. The Spaniard could not take advantage of his opportunity in Basel, where he lost to Valentin Vacherot, but he holds a privileged position before traveling to the French capital.
Djokovic, forced to react in Paris
The situation for Novak Djokovic is much more delicate. The Serbian, who also suffered an unexpected defeat in Vienna against Struff, ranks tenth in the Race with 2,890 points, behind Alex de Miñaur, who has 2,930. The gap with Jódar is 294 points, while Tiafoe is 490 points ahead. The margin for maneuver is decreasing, and Paris appears as his last great opportunity to change the course of the rankings.
Right now, the Race to Turin looks like this. 4. Daniil Medvedev: 3710 5. Flavio Cobolli: 3680❌ 6. Arthur Fils: 3525 7. Frances Tiafoe: 3380❌ 8. Rafael Jódar: 3184❌ ——————————— 9. Alex de Miñaur: 2930 10. Novak Djokovic: 2890❌ 11. Taylor Fritz: 2785 12. Tommy Paul: 2725 13. Alejandro Davidovich: 2510 14. Jakub Mensik: 2500❌ De Miñaur depends on himself to leave Vienna with 3330 and surpassing Jódar. But everyone is watching for a possible injury to Cobolli that would allow another player to enter, which would open the rankings even to Djokovic, who now has it tougher. Interesting tournament in Paris.
— José Morón (@jmgmoron) October 29, 2026
Djokovic will need to reach, at a minimum, the semifinals of the French tournament to maintain his chances of qualifying for Turin. A final would likely allow him to take a decisive step, while winning the title would practically guarantee him a spot, always dependent on the results of his rivals. Additionally, the Serbian will not have a bye in the first round, meaning he will have to play one more match than the top seeds who do enjoy that advantage.
For Jódar, the goal is to defend the eighth position and prolong a dream that seemed unthinkable a few months ago. For Djokovic, the mission is much more demanding: he needs a high-level performance to avoid ending his season without a presence in the ATP Finals. Paris will dictate the outcome on the horizon for these two men who, for now, will have to continue pushing themselves to the maximum to obtain that coveted ticket to Turin.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Djokovic necesita un milagro en París para alcanzar las ATP Finals