The Curse of the Champions

There is often talk of the “curse” when a lower-ranked tennis player beats a top player. Normally, dealing with the pressure, the drop in adrenaline, and the mental aspect of defeating a favorite directly affects their results in the following match. This has happened to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai when he defeated Carlos Alcaraz, but many others have experienced this as well.

A statistic that has repeated over more than two decades shows how complicated it is to maintain the level after defeating one of the great figures in tennis. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and, more recently, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have left numerous examples of a trend. Players ranked outside the Top 10 who manage to defeat them often lose their next match.

This could be termed the curse of the great champions. A sort of toll that those tennis players pay after signing an important victory and, just a few days later, fail to sustain their good momentum. To verify this, we analyzed the defeats of these five players since their first entry into the top 10, as long as their vanquisher was outside that group, and the results they obtained in the next round.

Roger Federer: 82 defeats and a curse evenly spread

The first case is that of Roger Federer, whose career we studied from his entry into the top 10 on May 20, 2002, until his last singles match at Wimbledon 2021. During that period, the Swiss suffered 82 defeats against players ranked outside the top 10 in matches that allowed for a subsequent round.

Of those 82 vanquishers, 39 won their next match, 41 lost, and two withdrew or could not compete in their next commitment. This means that 50% of those who defeated the Swiss ended up falling immediately afterward. A statistic that confirms that defeating Federer was not always the necessary boost to continue advancing in a tournament.

Rafael Nadal: six out of ten vanquishers lost afterward

The numbers for Rafael Nadal are even more striking. The analysis begins on April 25, 2005, the date of his first entry into the top 10, and ends with his retirement in November 2024. In that interval, Nadal accumulated 82 defeats against rivals outside the top 10 under the studied conditions.

Of those players, 30 won their next match, 50 lost, and two withdrew or did not reach the next round. Therefore, 60.98% of the tennis players who defeated Nadal while being outside the top 10 lost immediately afterward. A considerably higher proportion than that recorded by Federer.

Novak Djokovic: more than half of his vanquishers also fell

In the case of Novak Djokovic, the study starts on March 19, 2007, when he first entered the top ten in the world, and reaches the results available until October 2026. The Serbian also presents 82 sports defeats against players outside the top 10, excluding his disqualification against Pablo Carreño Busta at the US Open 2020.

Of those 82 occasions, 36 opponents won their following match, 44 lost, and two withdrew or could not compete. The percentage of subsequent defeats rises to 53.66%, which positions Djokovic between Federer and Nadal in this particular statistic.

Carlos Alcaraz: the player who punishes his vanquishers the most

The trend takes on another dimension with Carlos Alcaraz, who has the highest percentage among the five analyzed players. Since his first entry into the top 10 in April 2022, the Murcia native has suffered 25 defeats against rivals ranked outside the top ten, excluding finals.

What is truly striking comes when checking what happened next: only seven of those players won their next match, while 18 lost. No withdrawals were recorded in the following round. This means that 72% of Alcaraz's vanquishers fell immediately after defeating him, a proportion much higher than observed in the three members of the Big Three.

Furthermore, this is not solely a trend accumulated over several years. Recently, there have been numerous examples. David Goffin, after defeating Alcaraz in Miami 2025, lost to Brandon Nakashima. Cameron Norrie, after eliminating him in Paris 2025, fell to Valentin Vacherot.

The situation repeated itself in 2026 with Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells, who lost the final to Jannik Sinner, and Sebastian Korda in Miami, later eliminated by Martín Landaluce. The coincidence of these results in such a short period reinforces the curiosity surrounding Alcaraz, whose competitive wear seems particularly difficult to surpass for many of his opponents.

Jannik Sinner: almost seven out of ten lost afterward

The fifth protagonist is Jannik Sinner, whose analysis begins on October 25, 2021, when he first entered the world top 10. Since then, the Italian has recorded 22 defeats against players ranked outside of that group, excluding finals. Of his 22 vanquishers, six won the next match, 15 lost, and one withdrew.

The percentage of subsequent defeats reaches 68.18%, placing Sinner just behind Alcaraz. The results from both confirm that this trend, observed over the years with Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, remains present with the two leading figures in the current circuit.

Who transmits the greatest curse to their opponents?

The comparison of the five players reveals significant differences. Alcaraz tops the list with 72% of subsequent defeats, followed by Sinner and Nadal. Djokovic and Federer present lower percentages, though still above or equal to 50%.
 

Very few escape the curse of the greats

In total, the five tennis players have accumulated 293 defeats against opponents ranked outside the top 10 in the selected matches. Of those 293 winners, 168 lost their next match, representing a 57.34% of the total.

The data is especially relevant for Alcaraz and Sinner, whose percentages far exceed those of Federer and Djokovic. In the case of the Spaniard, nearly three out of four players who managed to defeat him ended up eliminated in their next commitment.

Does a curse really exist? The figures reflect a trend, but they do not allow for attributing the subsequent defeats solely to physical wear, pressure, or a drop in adrenaline. The difficulty of the next round and the level of the opponents also play a role.

What these results do show is that beating one of the greatest figures in tennis is not usually a guarantee of success in the next match. And, at least in the analyzed sample, no player reflects this circumstance as sharply as Carlos Alcaraz.

The other day, Alcaraz lost to a player outside the Top 10 who then lost his next round. This, which may seem anecdotal, is something more recurrent than one might think. Indeed, there is a "CURSE"☠️ Most lose in the next match. You will be amazed. https://t.co/2av2FCnPPc

— José Morón (@jmgmoron) October 15, 2026

Methodological note and sources

The data comes from the analysis of historical ATP results archives, statistical databases by Jeff Sackmann and Tennis Abstract, complemented by files from the 2024, 2025, and 2026 seasons and consultations on tournament charts.

Individual defeats of each tennis player have been counted from their first entry into the world top 10 until the end of the studied period, exclusively when the winner was outside the top 10 at the time of the match.

Finals are not included, as there is no subsequent round, nor unplayed matches, team competitions, or exhibitions. Withdrawals and subsequent walkovers are classified separately. Djokovic's disqualification in the US Open 2020 is also not counted as a sports defeat.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, La maldición de los campeones