Alcaraz relies on himself to overcome Sinner
Spanish could end 2026 as number two in the world following the Italian's withdrawal from playing for the remainder of the season.
Who would have thought that after the Wimbledon final, with Jannik Sinner as champion and Carlos Alcaraz still recovering from his injury, when the Italian had a lead of 5,000 points, the Murcian could end 2026 ahead in the ATP ranking. And it is that the return of the player from El Palmar and Sinner's withdrawal for the rest of the year could change the tide.
No one could have imagined when Sinner dominated the clay court season, except for his KO at Roland Garros, and repeated his title on the grass of Wimbledon, that his season would end there. What started with some discomfort in his knee led to his withdrawal from the US Open as a precaution, until the lack of information and transparency generated all kinds of theories. But the video posted by the player from San Candido on his social media made it clear: he has a right knee injury and will be out until 2027.
Alcaraz has a chance to end the year as world number two, but it’s minimal
Meanwhile, on Alcaraz's side, the more weeks he spent injured without knowing a return date, the greater the uncertainty about the extent of the injury and his chances of returning to the circuit. However, he took a step at the US Open, where he reached a commendable quarter-final, and now confirms his return with the title of the ATP 500 in Tokyo.
Although the main beneficiary of Sinner's withdrawal from the rest of the season is Alexander Zverev, who will mathematically end the year as world number one, Alcaraz could finish a complicated 2026 in second place in the ranking. That said, it is very difficult.
After accounting for all the points Sinner had to defend until the end of the season, 3,000 points for his titles at the ATP 500 in Vienna, the Masters 1000 in Paris, and ATP Finals, the Spaniard is 3,400 points behind the Italian with 3,500 points still to play for.
Alcaraz depends ON HIMSELF to finish the year as Number 2 in the Ranking and surpass Sinner. Yes, it would be ultra mega difficult, but not mathematically impossible. Currently 3,390 points behind Jannik, if Carlitos wins EVERYTHING he plays until the end of the year, he will be N2 at the end of the season. Shanghai (1000) Paris (1000) Turin (1500) He cannot lose any matches, though.
— José Morón (@jmgmoron) October 6, 2026
Therefore, Alcaraz is obliged to come out as champion of the Masters 1000 in Shanghai, the Masters 1000 in Paris, and the ATP Finals, three tournaments he has yet to win. In this way, he would earn 3,500 points and finish ahead of Sinner by 100 points at the season's close. But the moment he loses a single match, he will mathematically finish 2026 as the world number three.
While everything could change again at the beginning of the year with an Australian Open where Alcaraz defends 2,000 points, compared to the 800 points that Sinner and Zverev defend for their semi-finals. But months later, the Spaniard would have many opportunities to surpass him again in a clay court season where he defends hardly any points and the Italian defends 3,000 points. Therefore, an interesting battle for 2027 is expected, provided injuries respect both.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Alcaraz depende de sí mismo para superar a Sinner