Rybakina and Sabalenka meet in Beijing with the number 1 at stake

The number 1 of the WTA as the season comes to a close will have an important chapter at the WTA 1000 in Beijing, which starts this week. The new world number 1, Elena Rybakina, wants to distance herself completely from Aryna Sabalenka, who aims to gain 1000 points to reclaim the throne as the final tournaments of the season approach.

The WTA is currently extremely interesting, with a good handful of players capable of making their mark and challenging those who, in principle, are favored in these types of tournaments. Looking at the Beijing draw, it’s true that Rybakina has had the worst luck of the top two seeds, as most of the dangerous opponents have fallen on her side, such as Swiatek and Gauff.

The WTA number 1 at stake between Rybakina and Sabalenka

Currently, only 1007 points separate the two in the Race. Although the Kazakh, with two Grand Slams, has had the best season, the solid performance of the Belarusian in these types of tournaments throughout the year still gives her a chance to finish the year as number 1. If she wins here, Sabalenka could target that spot heading into the WTA Finals.

Elena's draw isn’t bad at all until the quarterfinals. Xinyu Wang and Anna Kalinskaya are the most significant rivals on her path. The Kazakh shouldn’t have trouble advancing several rounds, and it would be quite a surprise to see her fall before the quarters. There, she could face Svitolina or Bencic, marking a significant step up in competition.

In the semifinals is where things could get complicated for Rybakina. She could face Swiatek or Gauff, but other names like Jovic, Ostapenko, Mertens, Vekic, or Fernandez should not be ruled out. This second quadrant is incredibly challenging in terms of level, as even Badosa, who isn’t seeded, has fallen into this section. Out of all the players we've mentioned here, only one will advance to the semifinals to potentially face Rybakina.

Sabalenka's draw includes Muchova, Samsonova, Osaka, Potapova, or Bejlek as her highest-ranking rivals. Given how other quadrants have shaped up, what Sabalenka has drawn isn’t all that bad; she should be quite favored to emerge victorious in her quadrant, though Muchova could certainly make things difficult for her.

In the third quadrant, Linda Noskova and Mirra Andreeva appear as the biggest threats. The good news for Aryna is that only one of them can reach the semifinals. The Czech, who is having a dream 2026, seems slightly ahead in favorability compared to the Russian. The rivals in this quadrant, Tauson, Paolini, Schnaider, Alexandrova, or Stearns, do not appear as threatening, and there are many chances for a quarterfinal match between the winners of Roland Garros and Wimbledon for a spot in the Beijing semifinals.

Sabalenka, therefore, not only needs to go far in this tournament to have a chance to reclaim the number 1 spot by the end of the year but also requires a small favor from some of Rybakina's rivals on her path to the final. If not, it wouldn't be too bad to see a duel once again between the two best tennis players of the year regarding the Ranking.

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This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Rybakina y Sabalenka se citan en Pekín con el número 1 en juego