Terrible draw for Alcaraz in the Tokyo tournament

The draw for Carlos Alcaraz at the ATP 500 in Tokyo has been revealed, where the player from Murcia will defend his title after a tremendous performance last year. It was one of his best tournaments historically in terms of level, and he accomplished this despite suffering a sprain in the first round. If he wants to replicate his success, Carlitos will have to deal with a draw that is not easy, as the path he has been given this year in the capital of Japan is quite formidable.

Carlos Alcaraz's draw in the Tokyo tournament is akin to that of an M1000. With no bye in the first round, the Murcian faces a path full of challenges where his rivals could eliminate him early if he is not fully focused, as they all perform well on hard courts. After what was seen at the US Open, Alcaraz aims to gain momentum in this Tokyo tournament as the season comes to a close.

Possible draw for Carlos Alcaraz at the ATP in Tokyo 2026

Alcaraz will begin his journey in Japan facing Alex Michelsen. They have never met on a tennis court, and the American is the type of player who could adopt a style that complicates things for Alcaraz. Alex has had a great summer, reaching the quarter-finals at the US Open, where he came very close to advancing to the semi-finals in a dramatic match against Tiafoe that was decided in the super tiebreak of the fifth set.

Carlos has always found it difficult at the start of tournaments, so facing Michelsen means starting at a very high speed if he wants to avoid any unpleasant surprises. His potential second-round opponent would be the winner of the match between Arnaldi and Sakamoto. Perhaps both of them will offer a small breather before what he could face afterward, in what may be a relatively easier round compared to the first. Arnaldi will be favored, although one should never underestimate the role of someone playing at home.

If he reaches the quarter-finals, Alcaraz could find himself against an old acquaintance: Tommy Paul. The American will be the favorite in his section to reach this round and to meet the Spaniard again. This would be their tenth encounter on the tour. Although he has not beaten Alcaraz since 2023 in Canada, it is important to remember that Tommy is a dangerous player, especially in best-of-three sets matches. Whenever he faced Carlos in such encounters, he pushed him to the limit.

However, Paul will have a tough initial match against Alejandro Tabilo, which looks likely to be one of the matches of the day in Tokyo. It is clear that in the upper part of the draw, both Alcaraz and Paul are the two main favorites to reach the semi-finals from their section of the draw, where they could meet another major title contender: Taylor Fritz.

Fritz, special danger in Tokyo

Last year, Taylor was Alcaraz's main rival in the final of the tournament. This year, both could meet one round earlier. Neither have had much luck, but Tiafoe's higher ranking has caused Fritz to be the third seed, and there was interest in seeing which side of the draw Fritz and Jódar would fall into.

In his section, Fritz's main rivals will be Musetti (possible clash in the second round) or Casper Ruud (quarter-finals). An interesting match awaits Lollo against Fery, a semi-finalist at Wimbledon, in a section where we see Rune returning to the courts after his injury a year ago. The Dane will debut against Jacquet, which could be a good test to see what shape he is in. Ruud, for his part, will face Darderi.

If everything goes as expected, Fritz and Ruud should meet in the quarters and battle for a spot in the semis against the winner of the first quadrant, although we should not discount the options for Musetti, who could take advantage of being under the radar in this part of the draw.

Rafa Jódar's draw at the ATP in Tokyo

In the lower part of the draw, Rafa Jódar appears, who will fly to Tokyo with Alcaraz after they won together at the Laver Cup in London. The Madrilenian returns to the courts after an intense summer where he felt the strain of matches at the US Open. He will debut against a player from the qualifying rounds and could face Berrettini or Davidovich in the second round. Whoever it is, it will be a formidable opponent.

In the quarter-finals, he could encounter aNakashima, who has been the big sensation of the summer. The American faces Humbert in his debut, with a second round against Lehecka or Bergs. The Czech is not even a seed in this tournament, which speaks to the tremendous competitiveness we will see. It is worth noting that Brandon overcame Rafa comfortably in Canada, showing that style of tennis that is so uncomfortable for the Spaniard, but it is not a bad option for seeking revenge. Nonetheless, it is not a terrible draw for Jódar, although it is not the easiest of all the quadrants.

That title could go to the fourth, with Tiafoe and Vacherot as the main seeds. The Monegasque starts his last tour before presumably falling in the rankings and losing the 1000 points he earned as the winner of last year's Shanghai tournament. He faces Blockx in the first round, where we would say the Belgian is favored against him.

Tiafoe, indeed, comes in as the main candidate to reach the semi-finals in his section, with a nice initial clash against Nishikori, who will likely bid farewell to his home crowd. Bad luck for Kei to face one of the title contenders in the tournament. Tiafoe does not have a bad draw at all after the intense US Open he endured; he has another opportunity to accumulate points and continue looking upwards in the rankings while maintaining his hopes of qualifying for the ATP Finals.

Tokyo ATP 500 Main Draw Singles pic.twitter.com/CpKKZkqSZi

— Tennis Draws (@DrawsTennis) September 28, 2026

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