Can Rybakina end the year as number one?

Andrés Tomás Rico - 22 Sep 2026 | 20:19
WTA Elena Rybakina Aryna Sabalenka Ranking WTA

The newly crowned US Open champion has a good lead over her main competitors, but mathematically, there are possibilities for a change.
 

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Will Rybakina be able to finish the year as number one? Photo: Getty Images

With all four Grand Slams played and just two months of competition left in the WTA tour, the incentives in this final stretch of the season dwindle beyond the Asian swing and the WTA Finals, which will be held in Indian Wells this year. However, the race for number one could be one of the main points of interest in the women's circuit. Elena Rybakina is the new queen of the WTA ranking, but will she hold this position until the end of the year?

At first glance, the champion of the US Open and the Australian Open debuts at the top of the world rankings with a significant lead over her main pursuers. In the week of September 21, Rybakina has 9,901 points, with a 2,026-point lead over Aryna Sabalenka (7,875), while Jessica Pegula (7,265) and Coco Gauff (7,244) are 2,636 and 2,657 points behind, respectively.

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These are the points Rybakina will have to defend in what remains of 2026

A considerable distance, considering that only two months of competition remain. However, the main problem for the Kazakh lies in the fact that during this period, she has to defend a staggering 2,475 points. This includes 195 points from WTA Tokyo, 65 points from the WTA 1000 in Beijing, 215 points from the WTA 1000 in Wuhan, and the 500 points from winning the WTA 500 in Ningbo, plus the 1,500 points from the WTA Finals.

Thus, both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff would be eliminated, making it a battle between the two best tennis players in the world, namely Rybakina and Sabalenka. Still, it’s important to note that the Belarusian would need to end the season perfectly and hope for a collapse from the Kazakh.

In the case of Sabalenka, the points to defend are 1,390 points for her semifinals at the WTA 1000 in Wuhan and the 1,000 points from her final at the WTA Finals. Last year, she missed the WTA 1000 in Beijing, so this would be a great opportunity to make up ground. It’s worth recalling that Rybakina finished the US Open with discomfort in her Achilles tendon that almost caused her to withdraw before the tournament began. In fact, she decided to withdraw from the Billie Jean King Cup, which is taking place this week, although her presence in Beijing is currently confirmed.

The next battle would be in Wuhan, where Sabalenka defends her semifinal position, making it a key tournament. If she manages to win the title, she will continue to close the gap for the WTA Finals; otherwise, Rybakina could mathematically secure the number one spot until early 2027.

If she maintains mathematical chances, Sabalenka's last opportunity would be the WTA Finals. However, she defends 1,000 points, so she not only needs to match her result from last year but also surpass it and hope that Rybakina stumbles along the way. Ultimately, the Kazakh has everything in her favor to finish 2026 as the number one in the world.

 

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Podrá Rybakina terminar el año como número uno?