The major dark horses of the US Open after the draw

The draw for the final bracket of the US Open 2026 is here, bringing one of the most awaited moments for tennis fans: predicting which players will advance to the final rounds, imagining what matchups will emerge on the horizon, and ultimately trying to create that bracket that we believe will materialize. With the keys finalized and knowing how the seeds are organized, it is time to delve into the details and point out which players hold a unique opportunity. Who are the major dark horses of the tournament?

This is not a trivial question: the answer may change depending on the matchups and nearby dangers. Looking at the final bracket leaves us with a second quadrant that is more open than any other. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Flavio Cobolli are its main seeds, players who have achieved solid results in Grand Slams (Felix, too, in previous years at the US Open, being a two-time semifinalist), but they do not offer the same security as other much more established favorites, opening the door for several of the dark horses to analyze to emerge from this part of the draw.

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Who are the major candidates to make waves at the upcoming US Open?

Not long ago, the ATP released a promotional video asking players which player would surprise the world in the Big Apple. It was surprising (or perhaps not so much) to see that a wide majority bet on Learner Tien: the growth curve of the young lefty has been gradual and constant, not skipping any stages along the way, gaining experience and accumulating victories against opponents of various levels... and perhaps this US Open is the right opportunity to take another step in his ascent.

Learner Tien. pic.twitter.com/FkFkHfFRaO

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A semifinalist in Canada, only physical limitations could hinder Learner from dreaming big. The draw is not easy, starting with a tough first round against a well-shaped grinder like Nuno Borges, but advancing past that round would allow him to envision greater things. In the third round, he might face another of the great dark horses of this tournament: the title in mixed doubles could finally be the launchpad that Jakub Mensik needs to make a leap, replicating his semifinal run at Roland Garros and proving that his tennis is not just a matter of isolated tournaments, showing his capability for consistency at significant events.

Both players, like many younger profiles, will somewhat depend on their physical condition, knowing how to manage the timing and demands of a twelve-day tournament. In this regard, Karen Khachanov has proven experience: at just 30 years old, it is surprising to see a slight decline in the Russian's career, unable to accumulate consecutive victories since Wimbledon. His recent form is not good, but even in his worst season in years, he always finds some consistency in the Grand Slams, reaching the third round in Paris and London. The draw has set him up for a potential fratricidal round against Auger-Aliassime in the second round, and there are few tougher nuts to crack in the early rounds than Karen: if he regains even a minimal amount of confidence in his racket, his experience and stature provide ideal reasons to rely on a small resurrection.

Among the dark horses, a Spaniard who brings great hope

Not all the major dark horses will come from that second quadrant. While in the first Alexander Zverev and Rafa Jódar stand out as the main candidates, and in the last quadrant even a poor US Open from Carlos Alcaraz would find Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils as candidates for something beyond the second tier, the third quadrant, led by Novak Djokovic, is also a golden opportunity for many names. 

Two, on different scales, stand out. The first is none other than Frances Tiafoe: the American is on a race against time to be at 100% physically in Flushing Meadows, and the tournament has helped him regain hope. A two-time semifinalist, his draw features the weakest Medvedev in months, a struggling Vacherot... and the possibility of dreaming in the quarterfinals, either against a Novak Djokovic who offers fewer guarantees than ever or against an inexperienced Brandon Nakashima in these situations.

Finally, we conclude this list with hope in a Spanish context. Dani Mérida arrives in New York with a renewed mindset: he admits himself that he no longer goes to Grand Slams "to see what happens," but rather he believes and trusts in his ability to reach the final rounds. He will debut against a Marton Fucsovics who is no longer the same as before, and a possible second round against a struggling Andrey Rublev presents the perfect opportunity to take a significant bite out of a long-standing rival in the elite. From there, dreaming is free... and if the horizon brings Djokovic closer in the second week, the motivation would be through the roof. Which player do you choose? Who would you add?

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Los grandes tapados del US Open tras el sorteo del cuadro