What can we expect from Alcaraz in the upcoming US Open?

Carlos Navarro - 21 Aug 2026 | 03:16
Carlos Alcaraz US Open 2026 ATP

With the overflowing excitement for Carlos's return and the state of uncertainty in which the ATP circuit is immersed... are the title chances real? Should we think about them?

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Is it possible to demand that Alcaraz wins the US Open?

When you've climbed to the Olympus of tennis at just 22 years, becoming the youngest player of all time to conquer all the Grand Slams, every tournament you enter is approached with an expectation: to win. To win, to win, and to win again, as the Wise Man of Hortaleza used to say. There are factors, of course, that complicate and add a new context to this maxim: suffering a wrist injury that keeps you out of action from April to September, for example. With all this and everything else (which is no small matter: we are talking about the volatile nature of the current ATP circuit), there is a question that every tennis fan is asking out loud: what should we expect from the return of Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open 2026? Are we in a position to demand the title from him?

The excitement and hope run like a river of heavy flow. The joy of the circuit has returned, and with it, as if it were linked to his character, an optimism that almost only comes from seeing Carlitos smile. It is here that we need to provide that context, which can sometimes be complicated, a kind of warning to navigators: demanding Carlos Alcaraz to be the champion of the US Open, no matter how much victory is in his DNA, would be, at the very least, reckless.

Alcaraz regresará en el US Open: la noticia que esperábamos.

The circuit context favors Alcaraz, but winning a new Grand Slam would be a feat

There are legends capable of returning from a serious injury and taking the world by storm. Perhaps no one revs up as quickly as Rafael Nadal, able to kickstart the bulldozer after almost a year out, for example, back in 2013 (he reached the final in his first tournament back, then won three straight and ended up conquering Roland Garros and the US Open). We are talking about a profile that relied a good part of his style of play on his physique and who managed to establish an almost inhuman pain threshold to treat these comebacks as the daily bread.

 

Can Carlos Alcaraz do that? In such an explosive profile, with short efforts but requiring total agility and quickness in the legs, expecting a bulldozer from the start doesn't seem realistic. We are in unexplored territory: Carlos has never been out of action for so long, and certainly not due to an injury in such a sensitive area as the wrist, so we have little to rely on.

The precedents are very good: remember when he withdrew from the Mutua Madrid Open last year and came back strong to complete the Rome-Paris doublet. It was a clear response to an ailment that was, indeed, of incomparable magnitude, which generates much more caution when dealing with the current moment. There is, however, a reason to think big, which in turn is a double-edged sword: the shark tank in the elite ATP fishbowl is not at its best (Djokovic on the sidelines, Sinner in doubt, Zverev lacking confidence...), although the middle class has never been so dangerous in the early rounds of a tournament.

The latest feelings from Murcia suggested an Alcaraz at 70% or 75%. He will have plenty of time to raise these figures in the week leading up to the tournament, but the intensity of a Grand Slam, the return to extreme competitiveness, can be overwhelming. Let Carlos's success not blind us: he has earned all the time in the world to return gradually, regardless of whether his return takes place in New York or Tokyo. He is coming back from an injury that is not just any injury, in a very sensitive area: it would be reasonable for him to take time to find rhythm, for his gas tank to be affected after so long out... or for the feeling with the ball, so important for someone like him, to require much more work in an ultra-competitive environment.

Does this message mean we shouldn't be excited? On the contrary: the circuit needs Carlos and vice versa, making it perfectly valid for us to catch that infinite joy. Hope, the maximum; demands, none. If there’s anyone who can pull off a remarkable feat and add one more heroism to his repertoire, it's the Shark from El Palmar... but we should not ask or present it as the most reasonable expectation. All that is left is to trust... and, of course, enjoy the spectacle.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Qué podemos esperar de Alcaraz en el próximo US Open?