Sinner and Alcaraz, the aim to break a historical curse at the US Open

A historic challenge for two legendary players. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are aware of the difficulty of competing in a Grand Slam without having played in any of the tournaments of that same tour beforehand, but they will approach the US Open 2026 filled with motivation to make history. We review the relationship between the tournaments in Canada and Cincinnati with the event at Flushing Meadows.

Gaining competitive rhythm, building confidence, adjusting to the surface and playing conditions, testing rivals... These are just some of the great advantages of competing in important tournaments that serve as a precursor to a Grand Slam. The absences due to injury/caution from Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in both Canada and Cincinnati have led many to question their ability to reach the US Open 2026 and win the title.

Sinner and Alcaraz, doubts and excitement about making history at the US Open 2026

Despite their recent superiority, the Italian and the Spaniard will have to quickly adapt to the demands of the highest competition. Having two easy first rounds will be a priority for them to get warmed up, with Alcaraz being a greater concern, as his training rhythms and recovery timelines raise doubts about his ability to even participate in the year's last Grand Slam.

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If he competes, he would arrive as the third seed, which would lead him to potentially face Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. Sinner has chosen to be cautious in fully recovering from his knee issues, but he will travel to the United States soon to train hard and try to arrive in the best possible shape for the US Open.

Historical statistics raise an interesting question about their chances in New York. Since 1990, 21 of the 36 US Open champions, 58%, had not won either of the two immediately preceding Masters 1000. Therefore, not winning Canada or Cincinnati does not mean a sentence at all. The truly striking fact is another: no champion has reached the US Open without participating in at least one of them. Sinner and Alcaraz are about to challenge this historical trend.

#Sinner & #Alcaraz won't win Canada or Cincy.
Bad omen?
Well, since 1990, 58% of USOpen champs (21/36) hadn't won either leadup M1000s! Only 33% had won 1, but winning both is a good sign (3/4).
However, the last 3 Cincy champs (#Djokovic Sinner Alcaraz) ended up winning in NY! pic.twitter.com/QYADyi3Ieq

— Philippe A (@PhilBlack09) August 10, 2026

Not winning is not the problem: not playing is the extraordinary part

The absence of Sinner and Alcaraz from this North American tour has, moreover, a very different explanation for each of them. The Italian withdrew from Cincinnati due to an injury to his right knee after also withdrawing from Montreal, while Alcaraz is still recovering from the wrist injury that has kept him out of competition since April.

This makes their preparation for the US Open an uncertainty. Sinner has not played a match since his victory at Wimbledon, while Alcaraz has been away from competition even longer. The issue is not only arriving without a Masters 1000 title but doing so without competitive rhythm on hard courts.

However, history allows us to relativize the assumed bad omen. Since 1990, 58% of the US Open champions had not won either of the two major previous tournaments of the North American tour. Another 33% had only won one. Only four champions managed to win both Masters 1000 before conquering New York.

Cincinnati has proven to be especially positive

Additionally, there is a curiosity that raises the interest of this edition even more. The last three Cincinnati champions also ended up winning the US Open: Novak Djokovic in 2023, Jannik Sinner in 2024, and Carlos Alcaraz in 2025. The Ohio tournament has thus become a sort of privileged springboard to New York in recent years.

The case of Sinner is particularly striking: he won Cincinnati in 2024 and then conquered the US Open, while in 2025 Alcaraz lifted the trophy in Ohio and then became champion in New York. This year, neither will be able to repeat that formula.

🚨 AUCUN JOUEUR N’A REMPORTÉ L’US OPEN SANS AVOIR DISPUTÉ L’UN DES DEUX MASTERS 1000 PRÉCÉDENTS (CANADA OU CINCINNATI). ❌

S’ils sont présents à New York, Jannik Sinner ou Carlos Alcaraz devront réaliser une première depuis l’introduction de la catégorie Masters 1000 en 1990. 😳 pic.twitter.com/0bbrWa0T0P

— Univers Tennis 🎾 (@UniversTennis) August 9, 2026

And there lies the real challenge for both. There has been no precedent since 1990 of a US Open champion missing both Masters 1000, so Sinner and Alcaraz will have to prove that preparation can be completely different in an era marked by increasingly demanding schedules and a much more careful management of health.

We will need to pay close attention to the news in the coming days about how both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are doing, as well as the training schedule they have in the United States should Alcaraz's participation be confirmed. What is clear is that the context is unfavorable for both, but they have already shown the ability to achieve historic feats, and winning the US Open 2026 would be one of them.

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