Rybakina's calculations to seize the number 1 spot from Sabalenka in the WTA rankings in Cincinnati
We analyzed all possible scenarios in which there would be a change in the number 1 spot of the WTA ranking after the Cincinnati tournament, with Rybakina having a serious chance to take it from Sabalenka.
Elena Rybakina has been closing in on Aryna Sabalenka in the race for the number 1 spot in the WTA ranking and sees a clear opportunity to rise to that position for the first time in her career at this WTA 1000 Cincinnati 2026. We review all possible scenarios of a contest that will intensify at the US Open 2026.
The trend is clearly favorable to the Kazakh player, who has been making a tremendous effort in recent weeks to maximize her chances of achieving this great milestone in her career. Despite Elena Rybakina's performance not being stellar on the clay and grass tours, the deep crisis that Aryna Sabalenka is experiencing has opened up possibilities for the upset to occur.
It is important to note that the Belarusian has accumulated 103 weeks as the number 1 in the world, with 95 of those weeks being consecutive, in a streak she will attempt to extend at this WTA 1000 Cincinnati 2026. However, for the first time in a long while, she will be seriously threatened by Rybakina, although Aryna still depends on herself to retain her position at the top of the WTA ranking.
What does Rybakina need to leave Cincinnati as the number 1 in the WTA ranking?
Currently, having subtracted last year's points corresponding to the tournament held in Ohio, Elena Rybakina is 474 points behind Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian leads the table with 8,465 points, followed by the Kazakh with 7,991. It is worth clarifying that the 215 points defended by Sabalenka and the 325 points defended by Rybakina have been deducted. Therefore, the calculations for the Kazakh are clear.
To have the chance to dream of claiming the top spot in the rankings, Rybakina needs to reach the final. Any defeat in an earlier round will automatically mean Aryna retains the lead.
| Cincinnati Result | Points Earned | Sabalenka | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loses in 2nd round | 35 | 8,500 | 8,026 |
| Loses in 3rd round | 65 | 8,530 | 8,056 |
| Loses in round of 16 | 120 | 8,585 | 8,111 |
| Loses in quarterfinals | 215 | 8,680 | 8,206 |
| Loses in semifinals | 390 | 8,855 | 8,381 |
| Loses in the final | 650 | 9,115 | 8,641 |
| Wins the title | 1,000 | 9,465 | 8,991 |
However, it is most likely that being a finalist will not be enough for Elena, as she would need Sabalenka not to reach the quarterfinals. The moment the Belarusian reaches that round, it would require the Kazakh to win the US tournament, as long as it is not by defeating Sabalenka in the final.
In other words, Aryna Sabalenka is completely dependent on herself to remain as number 1 in the WTA ranking after the WTA 1000 Cincinnati 2026, as reaching the final will secure her position. In any case, it is essential to pay attention to how the margin between the two could narrow, with the US Open 2026 being the stage where a change in the rankings is most feasible, provided current trends do not halt.
We will need to pay attention to how the physical and mental fatigue that Elena Rybakina has accumulated after her grueling experience in Toronto influences this WTA 1000 Cincinnati 2026, where Aryna Sabalenka will arrive much fresher and ready to definitively move past the many issues that have dug a challenging emotional and tennis pit for her. In short, great emotions are expected this week in the battle for the number 1 spot in the WTA ranking.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las cuentas de Rybakina para arrebatar a Sabalenka el número 1 del ranking WTA en Cincinnati