The 5 Keys to Jódar's Defeat to Nakashima in Montreal
It wasn't Rafa's best match, as he made mistakes in tactics against a Nakashima who shone in several aspects of the game.
It couldn't be for Rafa Jódar. The Spaniard was knocked out of the ATP Montreal tournament by Brandon Nakashima, who was a relentless force from the serve and forehand, completely dominating a Rafa who did not show up until the end of the match and resembled a bit of what he usually is. Up until then, he was somewhat subdued and was overwhelmed by the good level of the American. We analyze the 5 keys that explain why Jódar lost.
This marks two consecutive tournaments where Rafa has been eliminated by a player with a clear game pattern, who is very aggressive and barely gives him any rhythm. Nakashima saw what happened in the final in Washington and replicated Fritz's strategy to leave Jódar out of the game, who until the final play did not put his opponent in trouble today.
The keys to Jódar's defeat against Nakashima: why he lost in Montreal
Key 1 – He couldn't be offensive
Like Fritz, Nakashima did not allow Jódar to take charge of the match and subjected him with powerful serves and forehand shots close to the lines. The American knew he had to finish the match by attacking more than Rafa, and he did just that. He ended up attacking 27% of the time compared to Jódar's mere 22%, which even fell below 20% at times during the match, showing that today the Spaniard couldn't perform his usual aggressive play to dominate his opponent.
Key 2 – Nakashima's tremendous serve
Today, Brandon was exceptional with his serve. It was known to be his best shot, but what we saw today was an unusual level for him. He only lost four points on his serve throughout the first set, and Nakashima finished the match with an average of 47 centimeters of distance from the lines with his first serve. He knew he had to rely on his serve so that Jódar couldn't hurt him on the return, and he executed it perfectly. Rafa, on his side, barely caused any damage with his serve, and his numbers were poor.
Key 3 – Jódar made tactical mistakes
Besides the serve, the American's best shot is his forehand. One might think it would be normal for him to end the match hitting more forehands than backhands, but the difference was staggering: 153 forehands and 103 backhands. When your opponent ends up hitting 50 more shots in their best area, it indicates that the tactic was not appropriate.
Additionally, it is curious that Rafa hit 155 backhands and 111 forehands. Normally, when one plays 50 more forehands than backhands, the opponent would also hit more forehands, as the most commonly used shot is the cross-court. This shows us that Nakashima focused his forehand on Jódar's backhand area. A backhand from the Spaniard that was absent today.
Key 4 – Jódar's backhand was off
It is one of the Spaniard's best shots, but today it couldn't get him out of any trouble. If we look at the play patterns, we see that today Rafa didn't feel the ball, and his backhand was hardly deep, leaving Nakashima with very comfortable balls to attack. Jódar's intention is always to push his opponents back, but today he not only couldn't do that but was the one being pushed back by Brandon's powerful tennis.
Key 5 – Lots of attacks down the middle
Rafa should have ended the match with a blatant attack on Nakashima's backhand area to target the weakest part of his game, but the play was very distributed, perhaps indicating that he didn't have a well-defined striking strategy or that he couldn't handle the American's ball power, which insisted on Jódar's backhand area 55%, knowing that today he wasn't at his best on that side.
Even so, despite being inferior, Rafa left defeated with not a very large difference on the scoreboard and having believed until the last point, showing that even on bad days he doesn't go down without a fight and holds onto the match strongly. That is something positive to note, because when Jódar matures as a player, he will be able to win many matches when things don’t go his way.
Data source: Insights, from TennisViz.
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las 5 claves de la derrota de Jódar ante Nakashima en Montreal