The Montreal picture is opening more than ever: several names are vying for favoritism
Jódar and Fonseca are the strong favorites to meet in the Montreal final, although others will fight to prevent it.
The M1000 of Montreal has become a frenzy. In this 2026, the same thing has happened again as in the last two editions, and it is quite likely that we will have a surprising winner who, by himself, has not many chances of winning titles of this category. As we reach the round of 16, it is time to analyze who has the best chances of reaching the final on both sides of the draw.
Top half of the draw: Fonseca, Shelton, Mensik, and Tien as the top favorites
In the upper part, there are three names that stand out above the rest regarding favoritism. We are talking about Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik, Ben Shelton, and Learner Tien. Joao and Ben are set to face each other in the round of 16, so one of them will be eliminated early in the fight to reach the final. The winner may also face Mensik in the quarterfinals.
Shelton was the winner of this tournament last year. Since then, the American has not had a week like this again, and winning such an open tournament like the M1000 of Canada does not boost your confidence for victories in bigger tournaments; instead, it takes advantage of a unique opportunity in the absence of the Top players.
Normally, Sinner and Alcaraz would be sharing this type of tournament. Not to mention, the first five M1000 tournaments of the year were conquered by the Italian, who would have been a strong favorite had he also played in Canada.
Mensik is another player still alive in the draw who knows what it is to win an M1000. This year, he has also reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam for the first time, so he can also gain confidence with the opportunity ahead of him. Among these three, only one will advance to the semifinals; he may encounter Tien there.
The young American tennis player still does not receive much attention in major tournaments and runs in the shadow of others who make more headlines than he does. He just defeated Tommy Paul, so his opponents would do well not to underestimate him. In fact, he has a decent draw (Tirante, and then the winner of the Mérida-Griekspoor) to make it to the semifinals and come in more rested than whoever comes out of Mensik’s, Fonseca’s, and Shelton’s bracket.
Joao is probably playing the best tennis this week in Canada, and his victory over Ruud has increased his chances of favoritism in this tournament. Still yet to break through in an M1000, Fonseca wants to make a statement in a tournament as wild as this one.
Yes, Alcaraz, Sinner, or Djokovic are not here, but the tournament in Montreal has become very INTERESTING.
Right now, it is hard to predict what can happen, but there are several names vying to go far here.
Everyone is looking at Fonseca and Jódar, but be careful because there are more.
Let me tell you. pic.twitter.com/8obp8nnUu2— José Morón (@jmgmoron) August 8, 2026
Bottom half of the draw: seems to be between Jódar, Fils, and Lehecka
The bottom half is somewhat more open, as the names coming through here are strong and all placed more or less at the same level in terms of favoritism. We have two M1000 finalists and several young players wanting to make a big impact in Montreal.
Rinderknech and Norrie are the only ones on this side of the draw who know what it feels like to reach a final in an M1000 tournament, but they are not the main favorites to repeat that feat in this tournament. That weight falls mainly on Fils, Jódar, and Lehecka. And, in a situation similar to that of the top half, only one of the three will reach the semifinals.
Lehecka and Jódar face off in the round of 16, and the Spaniard, who is the main candidate to win the title according to all predictions, seems to arrive in the best form and confidence for this round. After reaching the final in Washington, perhaps not many would have thought that Rafa would start the tournament as he has, beating Moutet and Musetti on consecutive days and showing incredible level.
Rafa, who has not stopped pressing the accelerator, arrives eager to break into the Top 10 of the Ranking and complete his great 2026 with a dream title like this one in Canada. Watch out for Lehecka because he is the typical underrated tennis player who does not impose much, but when he is in form, he is extremely hard to beat. Moreover, the Czech could bring a playing style similar to Fritz, taking away time and choking Rafa, thus complicating his life.
Then, Fils would complete the podium of top favorites in the bottom half of the draw to reach the final. After claiming that he did not feel very well physically last week in Washington when he was defeated by Jódar, he has now found a small gap through which to slip and aim for what would be the most important title of his career so far.
In a tournament with conditions that are slower than fast, where the ball bounces high and where there are many young hitters who feel very comfortable in these conditions, the path to the final in Canada is more open than ever, and even though Carlitos and Jannik are not here, the end of the tournament in Montreal looks to be incredibly exciting. Who will make it to the final?
This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, El cuadro de Montreal se abre más que nunca: varios nombres se pelean el favoritismo