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Alcaraz's calculations to arrive in Cincinnati as the second seed

Diego Jiménez Rubio - 2 Aug 2026
Carlos Alcaraz, options to avoid Sinner in Cincinnati. Photo: gettyimages

Carlos Alcaraz remains focused on his recovery with his sights set on the ATP Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, where he hopes to make his return if his wrist responds favorably in the coming days. Beyond his physical condition, the player from Murcia will be closely watching what happens in Montreal, as he still has a chance to arrive in Ohio as the second seed, a position that would have enormous strategic value.

Currently, Alcaraz has 8,160 points in the ATP ranking, compared to 8,080 for Alexander Zverev. The difference is minimal, and everything will be decided based on the German's performance at the Canadian Masters 1000.

Arriving in Cincinnati as World No. 2 would mean Sinner could only be his opponent in the final

The calculations are simple. If Zverev reaches the round of 16 in Montreal, he will earn enough points to surpass the Spaniard in the standings and take the number two ranking. Conversely, if he loses in his first match or in the third round, Alcaraz will maintain that privileged position going into the Cincinnati draw.

Being the second seed is particularly important in a tournament like Cincinnati. That would ensure that Jannik Sinner would be the only opponent he could face before a hypothetical final, avoiding a premature matchup with the world number one in a tournament he would enter after several months without competing.

No one would expect immediate results from Alcaraz after such a long period of inactivity. His priority will be to regain sensations, competitive rhythm, and see how his wrist responds in a highly demanding context. However, a competitor of his caliber always steps onto the court with the ambition to go all the way, regardless of the circumstances.

Therefore, Zverev's performance in Montreal is of added importance for the Spaniard. A stumble from the German would allow Alcaraz to return to competition with a draw, at least on paper, somewhat more favorable, with the possibility of facing Sinner only if both reach the final.

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Las cuentas de Alcaraz para llegar a Cincinnati como segundo cabeza de serie