Analysis of the draw at the ATP Montreal 2026: Zverev faces a major danger in the quarter-finals and Jódar has a challenging path

The draw of the ATP Masters 1000 Montreal 2026 presents numerous opportunities due to the absences of Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic, with Alexander Zverev as the main favorite and names like Medvedev, Shelton, De Miñaur, or Auger-Aliassime ready to take advantage. Rafael Jódar also faces a challenging but promising section, with Musetti appearing on his potential third-round path.

We are facing one of the most difficult Masters 1000 tournaments to predict in recent times. The absence of the three major current references greatly increases the chances for a second tier that has been seeking opportunities like this for some time. Zverev arrives bolstered by his title at Roland Garros and the Wimbledon final, while players like Medvedev, Shelton, or Auger-Aliassime have much to gain. The extended format of 96 players grants a bye in the first round to the 32 seeded players, so they will all begin their journey in the second round.

1st Quadrant: Zverev takes the lead with Fritz as a significant threat

Alexander Zverev has no reason to be unhappy with the draw. The German will debut against Lorenzo Sonego or Tallon Griekspoor, and his first clash with a seed should take place against Matteo Arnaldi. Fabian Marozsan, however, appears as an alternative to the Italian and is one of those players capable of significantly elevating his performance on big stages.

The theoretical round of 16 presents Francisco Cerúndolo and Ugo Humbert as the main contenders to face Zverev. The Frenchman has the Argentine assigned as a potential third-round opponent, although Jan-Lennard Struff or Alex Michelsen could pose problems in that area. None of them currently seem like an insurmountable obstacle for a confident Sascha.

The lower half is much more interesting. Learner Tien and Tommy Paul could face each other in the third round. Tien will first have to overcome the winner of the Majchrzak-Monfils match, while Paul awaits Royer or Pablo Carreño. A matchup between the two Americans would also help gauge how prepared the young Tien is to take another competitive leap.

Taylor Fritz closes the quadrant and should have a relatively easy start. Roman Burruchaga or Thiago Agustín Tirante will be his first opponent, before a potential matchup with Raphael Collignon. His main threat before the quarterfinals should emerge from the Tien-Paul section. Everything suggests a Zverev-Fritz showdown, but the physical condition of the American and the huge amount of alternatives make that forecast anything but certain.

2nd Quadrant: Medvedev, Shelton, and an ideal area for Fonseca to make a statement

Few players need a great performance as much as Daniil Medvedev. His experience on North American hard courts remains a significant asset, and the draw offers him an interesting opportunity to regain his form. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or Botic van de Zandschulp will be his first opponent, before a potential clash with Alejandro Tabilo, although Hubert Hurkacz poses an immediate threat to the Chilean.

Further down, a highly attractive section opens up. Karen Khachanov and Jakub Mensik are the seeded players matched for the third round, but Jack Draper could upset any expectations. The Brit returns with a great need for victories and will face Terence Atmane for the right to challenge Khachanov.

The bottom half concentrates one of the major focuses of the tournament. Joao Fonseca will start against Zizou Bergs and could subsequently meet Casper Ruud. It’s not an easy path, but the hard court should allow the Brazilian to display a more natural tennis style than what he showed during the brief grass court swing.

And waiting at the back is Ben Shelton, one of the top contenders for the title. The American will debut against a qualifier or Jenson Brooksby and has precisely Bergs as a potential third-round opponent, although for that matchup to happen, the Belgian must first eliminate Fonseca. This situation makes the Brazilian a direct threat in the path of the defending champion.

A Medvedev-Shelton matchup appears as the logical quarterfinal, but Mensik, Khachanov, Ruud, Fonseca, or even Draper provide enough arguments to turn this second quadrant into one of the most uncertain.

3rd Quadrant: Jódar threatens Musetti's hierarchy and looks towards De Miñaur

It is possibly the most interesting quadrant from a Spanish perspective. Rafael Jódar is seeded 20th and will start against Marton Fucsovics or Corentin Moutet. Two experienced players with very different records that would pose a serious initial test to see how the Spaniard responds after his time in Washington.

If he lives up to his initial favoritism, one of the most attractive matches in the draw will arrive: Jódar could face Lorenzo Musetti in the third round. The Italian, 11th seed, will debut against Martin Landaluce or a player coming from the qualifying round. The possibility of Jódar and Musetti facing each other again immediately after Washington adds a lot of interest to this section.

Overcoming the Italian could completely change Jódar's prospects. Jiri Lehecka is the eighth seed and a strong favorite to reach the round of 16 from the upper section. He will start against Alexis Galarneau or Vit Kopriva and would then have Alexander Blockx as a theoretical third-round opponent. However, Jaume Munar could potentially meet the young Belgian beforehand.

A potential Lehecka-Jódar in the round of 16 would not be at all unreasonable if the Madrid player maintains the trend of recent months. It would be another great opportunity to continue accumulating highly valuable victories and demonstrate that his progress is not limited solely to clay courts.

The other half has Álex de Miñaur as a clear reference. Cameron Norrie or James Duckworth will be his first opponent, while Ignacio Buse appears as a theoretical third-round adversary. Before hypothetical quadrant semifinals, a dangerous opponent could emerge between Valentin Vacherot and Arthur Fils, with Matteo Berrettini and Denis Shapovalov as elements capable of further disrupting the area.

By ranking, the fourth should be Lehecka-De Miñaur, but Musetti, Jódar, Fils, or Vacherot make this prediction highly debatable. For Jódar, the sequence Fucsovics/Moutet-Musetti-Lehecka/Blockx poses difficulty, but also a magnificent opportunity to continue growing in the ranking and confirm his candidacy for great things.

4th Quadrant: Auger-Aliassime seeks to assert his local status

The pressure to compete at home will especially weigh on Félix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian is the second seed and has a wonderful opportunity to pursue that first Masters 1000 he has been seeking for years. Daniel Altmaier or Luca Van Assche will be his initial opponent, and Brandon Nakashima appears as a potential rival among the seeded players in the third round.

Before a hypothetical quarterfinal, Frances Tiafoe could appear, although his section has many traps. Marin Cilic could be his first opponent, and Arthur Rinderknech appears as a seeded player destined to cross paths with him later. Miomir Kecmanovic is another player to keep a close eye on.

The upper section is led by Flavio Cobolli. The Italian awaits Yannick Hanfmann or Aleksandar Kovacevic and has Tomas Martin Etcheverry as a theoretical third-round opponent. Cobolli's adaptation to hard courts and his recent rise to the elite make him one of the most interesting players to watch.

Further down is Andrey Rublev, who could find himself facing Luciano Darderi in the third round. Gabriel Diallo, Juncheng Shang, or even the young Adolfo Daniel Vallejo add depth to a section where it does not seem easy to establish a rigid hierarchy.

Auger-Aliassime and Cobolli should meet in the quarterfinals based strictly on the rankings, but Rublev and Tiafoe have more than enough experience to thwart that matchup. It will be particularly interesting to see how Félix handles the expectations of a Canadian audience that sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to watch one of their own fighting for the title.

Zverev, the favorite in a tournament where almost no one seems dispensable

The setup of the ATP Masters 1000 Montreal 2026 leads to an obvious conclusion: Alexander Zverev starts ahead of the rest, but he will hardly find a better opportunity against a huge number of players. The German has confidence, experience, and a reasonable draw, while Shelton, Medvedev, De Miñaur, and Auger-Aliassime lead the chase.

However, reducing the tournament to those names would be ignoring precisely what makes it so attractive. Mensik, Fonseca, Tien, Fils, or Jódar represent a generation ready to take advantage of any power vacuum, while experienced players like Fritz, Rublev, Ruud, Tiafoe, or Khachanov still have arguments to go far. With neither Sinner, Alcaraz, nor Djokovic, Montreal becomes a Masters 1000 where opportunity can be as important as hierarchy.

This is how the final draw of the ATP Masters 1000 Montreal 2026 looks

This is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del cuadro en el ATP Montreal 2026: Zverev tiene un gran peligro en cuartos y Jódar, con un camino exigente