Analysis of the women's draw of Roland Garros 2026: A very complicated draw for Sabalenka

The wait is over. Roland Garros 2026 is finally here, and the women's draw has just been conducted to determine the path towards the title for the main contenders to win the tournament. Ahead, we will have two intense weeks at one of the most prestigious Grand Slams of the year, where only the most tenacious are capable of reaching glory. We analyze the potential match-ups round by round on the path of Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff (defending champion), and the other top favorites. Looking ahead to Roland Garros 2026, there are many incentives, such as the battle for the number 1 spot in the WTA ranking between Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Rybakina. The Kazakh player defends few points and the Belarusian reached the final in 2025. Additionally, there are high expectations for Iga Swiatek, the four-time champion of the tournament, who, after a few difficult months in terms of results, has added Francis Roig to her team to improve her game quality. Overall, as every year, great matches are expected, and above all, big surprises, like Lois Boisson reaching the semifinals last year, as the tour through Paris never fails to impress.

Analysis of the women's Roland Garros 2026 draw round by round

1st quadrant

	First round	Second round	Third round	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinal	Final
Potential opponents for Aryna Sabalenka	Jessica Bouzas	Qualifier/Jacquemot	Bucsa/Sonmez	Osaka/Jovic/Eala	Pegula/Mboko/Keys	Gauff/Anisimova	Svitolina/Rybakina/Swiatek
Potential opponents for Jessica Pegula	Birrell	Qualifier/Oliynykova	Shnaider/Kessler	Mboko/Keys	Sabalenka/Jovic/Osaka	Anisimova/Gauff	Svitolina/Rybakina/Swiatek

The reality is that luck hasn't been on Aryna Sabalenka's side in the Roland Garros 2026 draw. Not only will she face a tough opponent like Jessica Bouzas in her debut, but starting from the round of 16, she could potentially meet players like Naomi Osaka. Considering the uncertainties surrounding her performance on the clay court tour, it will be crucial to see how her initial matches unfold to avoid an early scare and its implications for the battle for the top spot. The other significant name in this first quadrant is Jessica Pegula, who despite not being a clay specialist, has been performing well on this surface in 2026. She has a slightly more favorable draw than Sabalenka, although Oliynykova has been showing good form and could pose a challenge in the second round. However, from the round of 16 onwards, tough matchups await.

2nd quadrant

	First round	Second round	Third round	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinal	Final
Potential opponents for Coco Gauff	Taylor Townsend	Qualifier/Dalfi	Boulter/Potapova	Kalinskaya/Boisson/Alexandrova	Noskova/Mertens/Anisimova	Sabalenka/Pegula	Svitolina/Rybakina/Swiatek
Potential opponents for Amanda Anisimova	Rakotomanga Rajaonah	Qualifier/Grabher	Ann Li/Kalinina	Noskova/Mertens	Gauff/Kalinskaya/Boisson	Sabalenka/Pegula	Svitolina/Rybakina/Swiatek

Coco Gauff has also not been favored by luck in the Roland Garros 2026 draw, as she faces a challenging opener against the ever-competitive Taylor Townsend. Moreover, in the third round, she might encounter a player in top form like Anastasia Potapova. However, being the defending champion and coming off a runner-up finish in the WTA Rome, she should, barring any surprises, at least reach the semifinals, especially considering Anisimova's absence due to injury throughout the clay court tour. In fact, the American player has a favorable draw, and under normal circumstances, she should advance to the round of 16 without major issues. However, after several weeks without competition, her form is uncertain. Nevertheless, Anisimova is a prominent figure on the circuit, and she shouldn’t face significant challenges until a potential round of 16 clash against Linda Noskova, who has previously defeated Coco Gauff in this season.

3rd quadrant

	First round	Second round	Third round	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinal	Final
Potential opponents for Elina Svitolina	Anna Bondar	Qualifier/Jeanjean	Wang/Tagger	Tauson/Bencic	Kostyuk/Ostapenko/Swiatek	Andreeva/Muchova/Rybakina	Sabalenka/Gauff/Pegula
Potential opponents for Iga Swiatek	Emerson Jones	Qualifier/Bejlek	Ostapenko/Linette	Kostyuk/Fernandez	Svitolina/Bencic/Wang	Andreeva/Muchova/Rybakina	Sabalenka/Gauff/Pegula

Another leading favorite to win Roland Garros 2026 is Elina Svitolina, the current champion of WTA Rome 2026. The Ukrainian player has a relatively smooth draw to reach the quarterfinals, as Belinda Bencic hasn't been as successful in the clay court season compared to earlier in the year. However, from the quarterfinals onwards, she will face the challenging task of overcoming opponents like Marta Kostyuk (current Madrid champion) or Iga Swiatek, the reigning queen of clay. Speaking of Swiatek, she shouldn't encounter major troubles in the initial rounds, but in the third round against Jelena Ostapenko, she might face tougher opposition. While she displayed excellent form in Rome after her withdrawal in Madrid, the Polish player is still not at full strength, especially mentally, which could pose challenges, possibly leading to an early exit if she doesn't gain confidence during the tournament. Beyond the Ostapenko match, she will have tough matches against Kostyuk or Svitolina in potential semifinals.

4th quadrant

	First round	Second round	Third round	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinal	Final
Potential opponents for Elena Rybakina	Erjavec	Starodubtseva/Blinkova	Baptiste/Krejcikova	Raducanu/Paolini	Muchova/Samsonova/Andreeva	Swiatek/Kostyuk/Svitolina	Sabalenka/Gauff/Pegula
Potential opponents for Mirra Andreeva	Ferro	Arango/Qualifier	Bouzkova/Haddad Maia	Samsonova/Muchova	Raducanu/Paolini/Rybakina	Swiatek/Kostyuk/Svitolina	Sabalenka/Gauff/Pegula

The number two in the WTA ranking faces tough challenges from the third round onwards, aiming to achieve good results and relying on Aryna Sabalenka's potential missteps to get closer to the world's number one spot. The match against Hailey Baptiste poses a significant challenge, and though favored in a potential round of 16 clash against Raducanu or Paolini, a quarterfinal encounter with Mirra Andreeva, one of the toughest opponents on clay, awaits. Furthermore, if she progresses to the semifinals, confronting Elina Svitolina or Iga Swiatek will be no easy task. Andreeva, on the other hand, will depend largely on her mentality and ability to handle nerves. Based on her quadrant, she should advance without major hurdles until the quarterfinals, with a potential test against Karolina Muchova in the round of 16. However, challenges await from the quarterfinals onwards, and she might emerge as a surprise contender if she manages to maintain mental strength, an aspect lacking in previous tournaments like Madrid.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Análisis del cuadro femenino de Roland Garros 2026: Cuadro muy complicado para Sabalenka