Fran Cerúndolo and the reasons for his astonishing excellence in Miami
We analyze in detail the aspects that raise the level of the Argentine's game at the Miami Open and make him a candidate for it all.
Miami confirmed it for me. Year after year, Fran Cerúndolo conveys a sense of authority at the Miami Open that is hard to recognize in the Argentine in other scenarios, at least with such confidence. He will play in the quarterfinals for the fourth time in his career, demonstrating that his high level in this event is no coincidence. Let's explain the reasons for this.
It is his natural habitat, he feels at home, and his tennis flows freely and without constraints, like fresh spring water. Fran Cerúndolo is once again leaving his mark on the Miami Open 2026, and this is not the first edition in which he has done so. His name rose to prominence in the tennis world in 2022 when he reached surprising semifinals that marked his great debut. Since that year, only in 2024 did he not reach the quarterfinals, a stage he will face against Zverev this Thursday with the aim of adding another victory and positioning himself as a contender for the title.
He has accumulated 15 victories throughout his career in this tournament, surpassing by far the number of wins in any other major tournament; in fact, the Australian Open is the second event where Fran has won the most matches, with a total of 8. The contrast is clear, as are the powerful reasons that must exist to explain this major love affair between a tennis player and a tournament. We turn to our friends at Insights to unravel the mystery.
Why does Fran Cerúndolo play so well at the Miami Open?
If we move from the most general data to the most specific, it is necessary to start with Cerúndolo's overall rating in the ATP tour so far, which stands at 7.83 points. He exceeds the circuit's average (7.29) as expected for a player of his caliber. However, when we focus on his performance in the Miami Open, we notice a clear increase in his ratings compared to 2022 (8.4), 2025 (8.56), and the ongoing tournament in 2026 (8.66).
One fundamental aspect that becomes a faithful ally of Cerúndolo's tennis in Miami is the playing conditions of the tournament. The medium-fast speed and low bounce court significantly favor the deadly forehand of the Argentine when he hits the ball at waist height.
The bite in his shots intensifies, he becomes much more efficient in his attacks, and his weaknesses, such as the serve and backhand, are mitigated as the court speeds up his serve and allows him to hit backhands at a not too high height, where he struggles the most. It seems like a tournament made for him, as reflected in the metrics of the years when he has performed best. In all of them, there are noticeable improvements in different areas of his game.
Cerúndolo's Metrics at the Miami Open
2022 Edition
2025 Edition
2026 Edition
As can be seen in the data, his return, forehand, and backhand are better than his average ratings, as well as the percentage of points won from the baseline. This last aspect is particularly relevant and is having a greater impact in 2026, where Fran is winning 60% of the points played from the baseline by both players, pushing his limits beyond what he achieved in 2022 (55%) and 2025 (57%).
It is evident in the data how the Argentine's aggressiveness has increased significantly, especially in this 2026 edition where he is dominating in 27% of the points. His conversion rate in these situations is slightly lower this year compared to the others analyzed, but still, maintaining above 65% while attacking so much is a master key to success.
A special mention goes to the Steal Score, which represents the percentage of points won when the opponent is in control. Here, Fran showcases his leg speed and agility in transitioning from defense to offense, neutralizing his opponents' attacks and showing how comfortable he feels on courts where he seems to float.
Cerúndolo is an impregnable wall at the baseline, and his second serve is not a weakness in his game
In 2026, he has become an impregnable wall in points that last between 5-8 shots. Furthermore, he is displaying exquisite confidence with his second serve, achieving a speed and placement that prevents opponents from taking control from the return side. This is evidenced by the fact that he maintains a neutral position in 58.6% of the points played with the second serve, gaining positive outcomes in 25.7% of situations (errors from the returner and attacking positions) while experiencing negative outcomes in only 15.7% of situations (double faults, return winners, and defensive positions).
It is worth noting that Fran Cerúndolo gains tremendous confidence every time he competes at the Miami Open, giving the impression that he can sooner or later match or even surpass his best record in Florida, with the 2022 semifinals. He will seek to assert his dominance against an Alexander Zverev, with a head-to-head balance of 3-3, although the last three encounters have favored the German. Will the Argentine be able to extend his dream?
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