Can Alcaraz beat Sinner in Cincinnati?

Jose Morón | 18 Aug 2025 | 12.08

Will Alcaraz be able to defeat Sinner in Cincinnati? Photo: Getty

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This Monday, a new final of the best rivalry we can have today arrives, that between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Spanish and Italian will face each other for the fourth consecutive tournament. Carlitos won the first two. Jannik, the last. What will happen at the Cincinnati ATP?

Many wonder if Alcaraz can defeat Sinner on a court like Cincinnati's. This rivalry will almost always be marked by a 50-50, no matter where they play. There will be times when it may shift slightly to 52-48 on slower courts or clay, and other times to 48-52 on indoor or very fast surfaces, but in general, Alcaraz-Sinner matches will be incredibly tight and decided by details.

There may be matches that are somewhat clear-cut because they will face each other so many times that it will happen, just like there are blowouts in Nadal-Djokovic, Nadal-Federer, or Federer-Djokovic matches, but this rivalry is defined by tremendous equality, regardless of the playing surface.

It is true that, on hard courts, Sinner has a slight advantage, which is why Carlitos will have to step up to shorten that distance or the small disadvantage he may have. Therefore, the answer to whether Alcaraz can defeat Jannik in this final is yes. If there is a player who can disrupt the Italian's ball rhythm, it is Carlos, but he will have to raise his game if he wants to do so.

Throughout the week in Cincinnati, Sinner has shown some minor weaknesses, as seen in his match against Mannarino, and the beginning of the second set against Auger-Aliassime and against Atmane. Jannik struggled with the extreme heat in Ohio at this time of the year, causing his first serve percentage to drop. If Carlitos can make the match more physical from the baseline and make Sinner struggle physically, he could capitalize on that situation.

It would be similar to the 2023 final against Djokovic. While the heat was intense at the Cincinnati Center, the Serb struggled to endure, even facing a match point in favor of Alcaraz. When the sun set, Nole turned things around and ended up winning the title. Just that is what Carlitos could take advantage of, as he seems to perform better in such high-temperature conditions.

If Jannik does not maintain a high serving percentage, Alcaraz must step up his return game. The match will revolve primarily around what Sinner can deliver with his serve and Alcaraz with his return. If the Italian wins that battle, as expected due to his excellent serving, the match will be in his hands. If Carlos can present himself as a rock in his returning consistency, that might be where his chances lie.

Beyond that, a final of short points is expected, mostly decided in exchanges of 4-5 strokes. There will be fewer long rallies, with more than 9 strokes, a domain where Sinner is likely to excel on hard courts. Alcaraz will aim to be highly aggressive, closing points quickly by approaching the net, but if he can defend well in longer rallies and manage to win a few more points from the baseline, just as we mentioned earlier to make it tough for the Italian, he could come out on top.

Jannik is the favorite, undoubtedly, but we'll see if Alcaraz can do what he didn't do in the Wimbledon final, like disrupting the Italian's rhythm with some sliced shots and stepping up his return game. The Murcian mentioned in a press conference that he is eager for revenge and to improve in what he lacked that afternoon in London. We will see if he can do it.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿Podrá ganar Alcaraz a Sinner en Cincinnati?