2025 Roland Garros Women's Final Analysis: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff

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Fifteen days following the tournament to meet on the last day with the best possible final. Even though it is said and repeated that the women's circuit is crazy, that anyone can beat anyone, here it seems that only the World No. 1 and No. 2 have been able to secure a spot to fight for the title this Saturday. Well, it seems that just anyone, I mean anyone, couldn't win. They had to leave behind the biggest threats, like the four-time tournament champion or the great revelation of the event, but none could stop the two players in best form on the tour. We are talking about Aryna Sabalenka and Cori Gauff, the two women who will have a historic battle to see who will emerge victorious at Roland Garros 2025.

There's little to say about a Sabalenka who came into this tournament strong, in fact, it might have been good for her to fall in Rome the week before. In Paris, she has been unstoppable with victories over Kamilla Rakhimova, Jim Teichmann, Olga Danilovic, Amanda Anisimova, Qinwen Zheng, and Iga Swiatek. Only Swiatek managed to take a set from her, the minimum as the reigning champion of the event. And what was the reaction of the World No. 1? She blanked her in the next set. We are witnessing Sabalenka's most beastly level, exuding a certainty and confidence in her abilities that very few dare to see anyone other than her lifting the trophy this weekend.

On the other side, without making as much noise through the rounds, we find Gauff in her most solid form. The same form she had been showing on the clay court circuit, now facing that responsibility at the Grand Slam level. Her wins came against Olivia Gadecki, Tereza Valentova, Marie Bouzkova, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Madison Keys, and Loïs Boisson, although like her next opponent, only one woman from this list managed to snatch a set from her. In this case, it was Keys, her compatriot, coming with the momentum of winning the Australian Open months ago, but that title didn’t help her stay undefeated in Paris. A path with fewer twists, yes, but equally brilliant from an unstoppable Coco when she aligns with the conditions this tournament offers her.

But what matters here is not what they have left behind, but what will happen this Saturday, the particular H2H between two women who know each other very well, to the point of displaying a beautiful head-to-head record: 5-5. After ten encounters, it is well known how much they can get under each other's skin. This season, they only crossed paths in the Madrid final, a month ago, where the Belarusian imposed her will with a 6-3, 7-6 victory. This was only their second match on clay, as the first went in favor of Gauff in Rome 2021 (7-5, 6-3). The Grand Slam records only have two pages, but both are memorable. The first being the final of the US Open 2023, where Gauff came back to claim the most significant title of her career. The rematch arrived five months later, in the Australian Open semifinals, where Aryna confirmed that the script changes on the court.

THE TOP TWO

I don't know where they would have placed Gauff on the gambling odds, but looking at what she has been doing in recent months, the reality is that she was one of the clear contenders to reach this final spot. She lost the Madrid final to Sabalenka and the Rome final to Paolini, but that trend highlighted that the American was already at that point where only a super player in top form could stop her. So far, that kind of opponent hasn't crossed her path in Paris. As for the Belarusian, seven finals in ten tournaments played in 2025 might be the quickest statistic to comprehend the heights she is currently operating in. She comfortably rests at the top of the rankings, where absolutely no one can match her numbers.

I have been saying for years that Sabalenka has everything to win in Paris, that it was merely a psychological matter of accepting the different challenges that a surface like clay presents. Once she understood and embraced it, there are her numbers on the red dirt. Several titles in Madrid, finals in both Stuttgart and Rome, along with a notable reliability when it came to wrapping up the tour in Paris. Now, she gets the reward of competing for a title at Roland Garros, a step that Gauff experienced three seasons ago. She was only 18, but that didn’t prevent the American from commanding the stage against an untouchable Swiatek. It was 2022, much learning has happened since then, which she will try to put into practice this Saturday to unsettle an opponent whom she knows precisely how to play when the pressure mounts.

As an interesting fact, we have an impressive final before us, a final between two women who already know what it means to win a Grand Slam. How? Does that seem usual to you? Delve into the archives and search; you won't find another like it since the one contested by Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka in the US Open 2020, almost five years ago! Since then, we have always had a potential new champion on the bill, although the Cinderella story didn't always come true. I have been warning that the WTA is evolving, that the top tier is getting stronger by the day, that the top 10 has set a barrier, and few manage to crash their party. Madison Keys at the Australian Open? An exception with many asterisks, as she didn’t need a major to sit at the table of the top players, but we also don’t want that element of surprise in the women's circuit to disappear entirely.

IS SABALENKA SUCH A CLEAR FAVORITE?

This time, there won’t be a surprise; this time, we will see either Gauff's second Grand Slam or Sabalenka's fourth. If you want a prediction, swear it's tough for me. You know as well as I do how Aryna can dominate her opponents on a good day. Can she stay calm while playing for a title of this stature? Not the whole time; that's where Gauff can capitalize, just as she did in New York in the summer of 2023. Additionally, if there's a surface where the defense and consistency of the American can give her an edge in the rallies, it is here. Where Aryna’s serve may not be as lethal, forcing her to win points multiple times. Frankly, I expect a closely contested match, with moments of brilliance from both, a third set that builds the drama, and a conclusion that I still hesitate to pronounce. People tend to think that the Belarusian has more weapons, but they are not better, just different.

Whoever plays their cards best will take the throne, I leave it to you to say their name in the comments.

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