Analysis of the ATP Rotterdam 2025 draw. Thorny path for Alcaraz

Raquel Bermúdez Rodríguez | 1 Feb 2025 | 11.50

ATP Rotterdam 2025 Schedule. Photo: Getty

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Jannik Sinner will not participate in this year's ATP Rotterdam 2025 to defend the title, meaning the tournament will see a different champion compared to last season. Several weeks have passed since all the events in Melbourne, and the circuit continues at a frenetic pace with this tournament among others, offering 500 points to the winner. Carlos Alcaraz arrives in the Dutch city as the top favorite to win; will he be able to assert his dominance?

Analysis of the main draw of the ATP Rotterdam 2025

1st quadrant

Potential opponents for Carlos Alcaraz: Botic Van de Zandschulp - Felix Auger-Aliassime - Holger Rune/Roberto Bautista - Andrey Rublev/Hubert Hurkacz/Jiri Lehecka - Daniil Medvedev/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Alex De Miñaur

The Spanish player's debut in Rotterdam will not be easy. Considering that Alcaraz arrives in the Netherlands with a cold, which hopefully he will recover from before his debut, his first opponent will be Botic Van de Zandschulp, whom he lost against in three sets in the second round of the last US Open. It will be a high-level test to start with. If Alcaraz overcomes the local player, he could potentially face Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, another challenging opponent for the player from Murcia.

His path is tough from the beginning as he steps onto the court. The somewhat slower conditions on the Rotterdam cement could benefit Alcaraz, who might have an exciting match against Holger Rune, depending more on the Dane. In the final, Alcaraz could potentially face Daniil Medvedev, the player who claimed the title here two seasons ago.

2nd quadrant

Potential opponents for Andrey Rublev: Zhizhen Zhang - Jan Lennard Struff/Fabian Marozsan - Hubert Hurkacz/Jiri Lehecka - Carlos Alcaraz/Holger Rune - Daniil Medvedev/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Alex De Miñaur

The Russian player should be the clear favorite in his debut against an opponent he has defeated in all three of their encounters. The second-round match should also be straightforward for Rublev, who will seek to find the consistency he craves on the court. Complications would arise in the third round, with the level of difficulty increasing in a potential semifinal against Alcaraz.

3rd quadrant:

Potential opponents for Alex De Miñaur: David Goffin - Jakub Mensik/Alexander Bublik - Arthur Fils - Daniil Medvedev/Matteo Berrettini/Stefanos Tsitsipas - Carlos Alcaraz/Felix Auger Aliassime/Holger Rune

The Australian arrives in Rotterdam with confidence, defending last year's final. The pressure could weigh on him, but he should not falter in the early rounds, starting with a first-round match against David Goffin, whom he has dominated with a head-to-head of 5-0. Although Alex is the favorite based on the rankings, the quadrant could open up significantly if Jakub Mensik or perhaps Arthur Fils cause some surprises.

4th quadrant

Potential opponents for Daniil Medvedev: Stan Wawrinka - Mees Rottgering/Qualy - Matteo Berrettini/Stefanos Tsitsipas - Alex De Miñaur/Jakub Mensik - Carlos Alcaraz/Felix Auger Aliassime/Holger Rune

Similar to the top half, the bottom section does not escape a high level of difficulty, focusing on the first round that pits Daniil Medvedev against Stan Wawrinka. They have faced each other four times, with an even head-to-head record and Wawrinka winning their last two encounters. The victor of this match would be the favorite for the subsequent round, which should be relatively straightforward. In the quarter-finals, Medvedev could potentially meet Matteo Berrettini or Stefanos Tsitsipas, challenging opponents depending on their form entering this stage.

Who will claim the trophy at the ATP Rotterdam 2025?