This is how the fight for the number one spot looks till the end of the season

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🎾 Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon

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The battle for the ATP number one is still alive and kicking despite the significant lead that Jannik Sinner holds at the top. The Italian has had a sensational season, reaching at least the quarterfinals in all the tournaments he has played and making consistency, solidity, and steadiness the cornerstones of his game. His title at the US Open 2024, adding 2,000 points to his tally, could have secured him the top spot till the year's end... but there still exists a slight chance for this honor to be snatched from his grasp by two key contenders.

Perhaps Alexander Zverev deeply regrets his defeat in the quarterfinals of Cincinnati against the Italian. It could have been a fantastic stepping stone to grasp the world number one, an achievement he has been very close to despite not winning a Grand Slam. The German currently sits at second place in the ATP ranking, his best historical position, but he is significantly behind the Italian: with 6875 points compared to Sinner's 11,180, a difference of over 4000 points that greatly complicates his task of dethroning him anytime soon.

Strictly based on the ATP ranking, only a monumental disaster on Jannik's part would prevent him from reaching the ATP Finals at the top. The gap from his pursuers is so vast that not even losing in the first round of all the upcoming tournaments would guarantee him losing the top spot in the ranking. Sinner defends a total of 2,180 points for the remainder of the year, and nearly half of them come from his final in Turin last year (1,000). Therefore, in order to narrow the gap, Zverev would need to win all the major tournaments left at the end of the year (Shanghai, Paris-Bercy, and the ATP Finals) to surpass the Italian.

THE RACE, THE LAST HOPE OF HOPE

With just a couple of months left in the season, the focus shifts to the Race, which measures the points acquired throughout 2024, regardless of the points defended from the previous year. Here, Sinner also holds a considerable advantage: he leads both Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz by almost 3,000 points, and it seems highly unlikely that the Italian won't accumulate significant points in tournaments that perfectly suit his style: Beijing, Shanghai, ATP Finals...

Therefore, the only hope and aspiration for someone like Carlos Alcaraz is to finish the season flawlessly, winning the remaining two Masters 1000 tournaments (Shanghai and Paris) and, as nearly non-negotiable, claiming the ATP Finals 2024. Achieving this would grant you 3,500 points, although you would have to hope that Sinner doesn't gather around 600 points for the remainder of the year. In other words: the chances of snatching the number one spot from Sinner aren't impossible, but indeed very, very remote.

Regardless, there are numerous incentives in this end of the season for both Carlos and Sascha. A spot in the top-2 of the ATP ranking for 2024 is up for grabs, a matter of significance as it would allow you to avoid Sinner in a potential semifinal of the Australian Open 2024. While the number one spot seems unlikely, the Spanish and the German could face off in a battle to finish the year in the second spot: Zverev narrowly leads Alcaraz by just 105 points in the Race, setting up an incredibly tight scenario.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Así está la lucha por el número uno hasta final de temporada