Analysis and forecasts of the men's semifinals of the US Open 2024

Surely, if two weeks ago someone had asked us all who the four male semifinalists of the US Open 2024 would be, no one would have guessed the names of those who have actually made it. Perhaps many would have guessed the name of Jannik Sinner, but almost no one (if anyone at all) would have predicted that Jack Draper, Frances Tiafoe, and Taylor Fritz would reach this far in New York.

It has been a tournament of surprises and open opportunities for many. They have known how to take advantage of many of the favorites falling by the wayside and have earned what could be the great opportunity of their lives. The future is uncertain, but logic tells us that many of them may not find it so easy to reach a Grand Slam final. The train is passing now, and they must buy the ticket to get on board.

Jannik Sinner – Jack Draper. H2H: 0-1

No doubt, Draper has been the great revelation of the tournament. The Briton has taken full advantage of Alcaraz's early departure to sneak into his first major semifinals. Given his age and talent, these may not be his last. At the beginning of the tournament, Jack mentioned feeling very comfortable with the tournament conditions, using the speed of the courts to inflict damage with his serve, which is his major weapon and best asset for this showdown against the world number 1.

We have always said that, if Draper's physical condition holds up, he has the tennis to break into the Top 10 and be a strong contender on fast surfaces, especially on grass. His issue in recent years has been the inability to go 2-3 months without suffering an injury. His body is his biggest handicap, and in this tournament, he seems to have found a small oasis to unleash his game. However, in his last match against De Miñaur, he had to be treated for a problem in his right thigh, which we do not know if it will affect him for this encounter.

Because the challenge that Draper faces ahead is not easy. He must confront a Sinner who is the top favorite to win the tournament and who possesses the weapons to silence his own. The Italian is an excellent returner, and the outcome between the Briton's serve and the Italian's return will determine the balance of the match. For Jack to have a chance, he would need to be a bit 'reckless', hitting first serves at percentages exceeding 75 or even 80% and consistently approaching the net. If he stays back, Jannik will impose his game, moving him from side to side and wearing him down blatantly. From there, it will be difficult for him to carve out a victory. Therefore, Draper would need to be as offensive as possible with his serve, attack Sinner's second serves, not hesitate to disrupt the rhythm, and consistently come to the net to suffocate him.

On the other hand, Sinner would benefit from returning deep inside the court. In tennis, there is nothing like neutralizing your opponent's best weapon. If he can return deep and force play from the baseline, the match will be on his racket. The more he can extend the points and take the initiative, the victory will be within his reach.

It seems unlikely that Draper has the stamina to endure an eternal match of four hours (or more), but we leave that option open due to his powerful service, and should not ignore the possibility that he might have an inspired serving day, maintaining an equally balanced score.

Probability of victory: Sinner 75% - Draper 25%

Taylor Fritz – Frances Tiafoe. H2H: 6-1.

An all-American duel in the second semifinal. For the first time in almost twenty years, the USA will have a finalist from their own country at the US Open. The question on everyone's mind there is: who will it be? By public favoritism, everyone points to Tiafoe. However, historically, Fritz has the upper hand in their head-to-head matchups.

Rancho Santa Fe's Fritz has only dropped four sets in seven encounters against his compatriot. The last time Tiafoe defeated Fritz was in 2016 at Indian Wells. Much has changed since then. To Tiafoe's credit, he has experience playing Grand Slam semifinals. It happened right here at the US Open in 2022 against Alcaraz, whom he pushed to five sets. In significant matches, Tiafoe has always displayed a higher level than Taylor.

Fritz has been criticized for faltering in big moments and against top opponents. Every time he reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, the American left more doubts than certainties. He appeared very diminished against Djokovic at Wimbledon and the Australian Open; lacked hunger facing an injured Nadal at Wimbledon; and showed fear of winning against Musetti at Wimbledon too. All of that changed recently against Zverev, in one of the most convincing performances we have seen from him in a long time.
There, Fritz seemed to free himself to deliver a tremendous match. Perhaps the realization of being in the prime opportunity of his life and without major threats like Alcaraz or Djokovic on his side of the draw influenced his significant mental improvement to grasp the chance and reach the tournament final.

On the other hand, Tiafoe started the year in complete disarray, suffering consecutive defeats, but in the summer, he left all that behind to return to the form we all knew two years ago when he exploded onto the scene, always providing electrifying matches and trademark offensive gameplay. The crowd loves him, and he knows it. When he lost to Alcaraz in 2022, he stated that he would come back one day to win this tournament. In 2024, he could fulfill his promise.

Turning to the match, Fritz has the ideal game to trouble Tiafoe. Envisioning the duel, we picture Frances willing to take charge and be aggressive with his forehand. Fritz is comfortable defending and does it better than his rival, providing him a significant opportunity if his compatriot and friend is not entirely accurate in his attacks and fails to find openings, thus forcing him to take more risks than necessary.

With both equally matched regarding their serves, the outcome of the match will likely be decided by the battle from the baseline. The one who displays greater mental composure might clinch the victory, as we imagine both players being tremendously nervous facing the opportunity ahead. The match will be decided on the fine line between making few mistakes and attacking efficiently, especially during the pivotal moments of each set. There, Fritz may slightly stand out as the favorite due to his mental maturity, although Tiafoe, at his peak, surpasses Taylor.

Winning percentage: Fritz 55% - Tiafoe 45%

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